Van Santos

I found this to be very interesting - The International Journal of Health Geographics released spatial patterns of natural hazard mortalities with in the United States at the county-level for the U.S. from 1970-2004.

To define “natural hazards” we are talking about events like flooding, earthquakes, heat/cold, hurricanes… turns out normal,  “everyday weather” accounts for the majority of weather fatalities.

I was going to embed the PDF in the site, but it’s rather big. Instead, you can download it here.

From the you get what’s coming to you file:

A stubborn few decided to defy orders to leave. Emory Sallie, 44, of Galveston, said he had braved storms in the past and didn’t think Ike would be any different. He didn’t believe the dire warnings - he was more worried about the wind, not the flooding. “If the island is going to disappear it has to be a tsunami,” he said, as he walked along the block where his home is located, drinking a beer and smoking a cigarette. “If it ain’t your time you ain’t going anywhere.”

I mean… come on now.

If you’ve ever wanted to feel small, just take a look at this:

Hurricane Ike over Cuba

This is a picture that NASA took as Ike passed over Cuba. Now realize that the storm has doubled in size since this picture was taken. Amazing. Simply amazing.

The storm looks to be on track to his Houston at some point this evening. With nearly a million people moving out of Ike’s path, gas prices on the rise due refinery shut downs, and 15 foot storm surge expected, this will be a wild weekend for some in Texas.

Here is the current model…

Others talking about the storm:

Hurricane Ike Resources
Jonny Torres - Ike video coming ashore
Diary of a Mad Poker Player - Hurricane Ike
Symonsez - Hurricane Ike Not Intense But Has Serious Muscle

I’m not a meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV, but I am really surprised at how quickly hurricane Ike’s projected path changed in a matter of hours. In the last two days the storm went from hitting New Orleans to just about hitting the US / Mexican border. The surprise, for me, is the path changed significantly from this morning – in a matter of 4 hours.

When I first logged on all models were showing Houston was still the target of the storm but come lunch time it’s Corpus Christi. That’s a big difference in a short period of time which says to me one shouldn’t underestimate where this guy is going.

Think about it – the models are changing so quickly, so dramatically, anything could happen in a matter of hours. While targets have it trending west and south into less populated areas, the Gulf should still fear a turn to the north.

Never underestimate Mother Nature.

Here is the current storm path:

First the good news - models suggest New Orleans looks to miss the brunt of Hurricane Ike.

The bad new - compare the storm track above with the Gulf Coast Oil platforms and you’ll see the production area is on the east side of the storm, not a good area to be. I’m surprised oil prices managed to stay below $110 with the storm on the way. Maybe the oil bubble is over, maybe the market really doesn’t think this will hurt production…

The really bad news - Houston could be the new target of the storm.

It’s just coming through via CNN: The Florida Keys are under an mandatory evacuation order.

Ike has now grown to a Category 4 storm once again with winds around 135 MPH.  Current storm track can be found here.

New Orleans, get ready to move! It looks like the storm is headed right for you. Here is the latest projected path for Hurricane Ike.

The Hurricane keeps switching between a Category 2 and 3 storm but a lot can happen between now and this up coming Thursday, when the storm is expect to be in the Gulf of Mexico.  When the storm passes over Cuba it may take some energy out of the storm.  Windsheer or a cold front may push the storm further south, toward texas, or the water temperature may not support the growth of the system.

I want to point out what JetBlue, the low-cost airline, is doing something that hasn’t been seen in the industry in ages - they are waiving fees for individuals affected by the storm.  Not only is it the right thing to do, in my opinion, it’s a nice marketing move as well.

More to come, no doubt.

More and more it is looking like Hurricane Ike will head into the Gulf of Mexico.  From data thus far the storm is really looking like a monster.

Current Storm path models and projected center positions can be found here and here.

Just a few things to think about…

If this does maintain strength, and does hit the Gulf, will the folks in New Orleans and Texas be hitting the road again or will people stay and try to ride it out?

Will nearly all of the oil and natural gas production shut down in preparation, as with Gustav?   Some 25% of oil drilling is still off line because of the last event, if this storm rolls through how will this impact the price of oil?

Are local and federal governments ready to respond to two major storms back to back?

We may know by mid next week…. But in the mean time continue to check out Symonsez for Hurricane coverage - some truly great stuff here.