I’ve noted the situation in the Ukraine a few times – first with an ‘unknown’ virus outbreak, which became viral pneumonia, that was finally identified as H1N1.  It is important to point out the country may not have the ability to deal with/respond to an outbreak due to economic and technological issues, but after reading this article I have a question:

A total of 189 people have died in the outbreak, the health ministry said, and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has cancelled political rallies and ordered schools shut to try to curb it.

The toll included 17 deaths from the H1N1 flu, First Deputy Health Minister Vasily Lazorishinets told journalists.

So if 189 people died thus far in the ‘outbreak’ the Ukraine is facing, and only 17 died of the swine flu, what did the other 172 people die of?

Is there some other virus in the Ukraine?  Is this bad reporting? Bad records management by Ukraine officials?

I’m just saying… seems odd.

Yet another busy day leads to be missing out on the events of the world, let us jump in on a few things that came out today..

Treasure thinks Congress will raise the U.S. Debt Ceiling

Just stop!  Really.

The debt levels in the United States are growing to the point where they will become unsupportable by the Government.  Literally.  The CBO has already reported that, in a few short years (8-ish) the Government may be in a position where paying interest on the debt outstanding will be impossible.

Translation – the country will be bankrupt.

Someone needs to remind Geithner (and Congress) why the debt ceiling is in place.

One more thought on Swine Flu and the Ukraine

Yesterday I had written about the Ukrainian Swine Flu response – it seemed a bit drastic to me for roughly 4% of the population. What I had thought about but didn’t express was, due to the economic conditions of the country,  the Ukraine doesn’t have necessarily have the technology, education and/or to treat and react to an unknown outbreak let alone the swine flu.

Thanks for taking me to task on that.

And this is sad – U.S. Army Suicides reach a new high

The aftermath of the Vietnam war wasn’t the political change, it was the thousands of troops that ended up with untreated mental illness and substance abuse issues.  After putting their lives on the line for a war that, in a number of cases, they did not believe in their government simply left them to fight for themselves when returning to the ‘real world’.

When I see that the Army Suicide rate is higher than the general population I have to wonder if the government is not providing the support the troops deserve – regardless of the active status of the person.

Really, just call it the Titanic

This is one of those stories you read and simply say – “Oh, you know, this isn’t going to end well.”

The largest cruise ship in the world, the 16-deck Oasis of the Seas, found a port of call  in Ft. Lauderdale today.  I know we live in a world of excess but, really, this ship is 40% larger than any other ship on the high seas today.

While I haven’t heard anyone say the ship is unsinkable, with a capacity for 6,300 passengers and 2,100 crew this is almost like a bad made for TV moving waiting to happen.

First India, now NASA

In case you missed it, NASA has confirmed they have found large amounts of water beneath the Moon’s surface.  The first report issued by the Indian space agency stated water was “locked in the soil” and would come and go during the course of a day.  It is interesting to see NASA specifically say beneath…

Without a doubt life is out there, I’m just waiting for the day when NASA (or another space agency) finds life off earth.  I’m not saying aliens, just the very basic definition of life.

The Flu, Swine Flu and the Ukraine

During a normal flu season roughly 5% to 20% of the U.S. population will get the flu (all strains covered). If one take the “worst case” numbers 20% will translate to about 68M people.  When the CDC states that about 22M people in the U.S. have had the swine from April of 09 to October of 09 that may seem like big number but, really, it is in line what what the CDC expects in a normal flu season anyway…  And that is what I love about stats.

People like to use numbers to prove points/win arguments because the majority of the listening audience does not question the data.  Sorry to say it but there is a serious lack of critical thinking which lead does not lead to “Well, how is this different than any year?”

I’ve said it a number of times, and unless I see a set a drastic events, I will continue to say the Swine Flu is nowhere as bad as the media is making it out to be.

Another example of this may be the reaction in the Ukraine.

In a sudden fury of activity the Ukrainian government began voicing concern about national security, closing down schools nation wide, and quarantining hospitals because of a sudden rise in swine flu.  According to Ukrainian government stats, 1,192,481 people have the swine flu within the country of roughly 46 million people.

Put in another way – roughly 4.1% of their population. While I do not have average number of flu cases within the Ukraine 4% seems rather low all things considered.

Initially the outbreak was called an “unknown disease” but has since been identified as the swine flu.  Sure, facing something that has never been identified could explain the concern about national security and establishing quarantines… but, again, 4% seems rather low.

Is gold running out?

The supply of gold on the Earth is finite.  No new supplies will be created.  So, it is interesting to hear the CEO of Barrick Gold – the largest gold mining company – say the company is stopping their hedging practice.

Quick reminder: Hedging is used by companies to protect themselves from price volatility, usually buying/selling contracts of goods at a set price.

Example: I think the price of oil is going to rise in the future so I buy oil options for 4 years out at the current price ($77).  Let’s say the price of oil doubles ($144) I will only have to pay my option price ($77).  Alternatively, if the price drops over that time period I will have lost the difference between what I paid and the price at the time the option expires.

So what would cause Barrick to stop the practice of selling hedges?  There is only one answer that would fit under the current market conditions, they believe they only direction the price of gold is heading is upward.

Chicago Bears…

Yea, they suck.  Just needed to get that out there.  Sure the defense is playing as if they are a different team from last Sunday, now Jay Cutler is sucking ass and sucking hard.

Really guys, what’s up?

The Alavi Foundation

I was very surprised to see in the news that the U.S. is trying to confiscate the holdings of the Alavi Foundation.  First off, I’ve never head of the Alavi Foundation, but the U.S. claims this group is a front for the Iranian Government. Second, I’m surprised because – to the best of my knowledge – there wasn’t much, if any, word the group showing up in the press previous to this event.

Making the assumption the Alavi Foundation is a front for the Iranian Government, why is action being take at this time?  What is the cause/motivation for action? Is this a warning to the Iranian government because of their actions with regards to the nuke program?

Time to start putting the pieces together…

Lou Dobbs leaves CNN

In what came as a surprise for a number of people, Lou Dobbs is leaving CNN.  Except for a short period of time spent at space.com Dobbs was with the network since it was founded. Weird, no?

Anyone have a guess as to why he is leaving.  I’m sure there are odds in Vegas on this, but I’m going with Lou Dobbs may be considering a run for some political position.

Yes, call me nuts, but look at what he said in his speech:

And as for the important work of restoring inspiration to our great free society and our market economy, I will strive as well to be a leader in that national conversation

If that doesn’t sound like someone who is about to make a run, I don’t know what does.  I mean, for crying out loud, he had a huge picture of the American flag behind him! Yes, time will tell, but as I am a betting man this is where I would put my money.

Either there is something large going on in Eastern Europe or someone is overreacting.

Two days ago we saw an unidentified flu strain showing up in the Ukraine, today we see Romania is placing all hospitals under quarantine.

Romania’s Health Ministry Monday decided to place under quarantine all hospitals in the country, announced State Secretary Adrian Streinu-Cercel.

According to him, separate emergency wards will be opened to exclusively treat people with flu symptoms.

Starting this week, antiviral medicines will be delivered to hospitals, which will also get additional funding for purchasing surgical masks and disinfectants.

I’m trying to find more information on this but have been unable to thus far.  I find it interesting that Eastern European countries are having such an extreme reaction to the swine flu.

The news in the U.S. still is trying to push the Swine Flu as the next huge threat to humanity (no, not buying it yet) but it seems where people need to be paying attention is the Ukraine. As a sudden flu outbreak has taken place so has a round of viral pneumonia.

How bad is it in the Ukraine?  Not sure exactly as I have no contacts there but it looks like the entire country is going to be quarantined. To me the numbers do not seem dire which would make me wonder what else is going on?  Is this the swine flu going around or is this a new mutant strain?

Also, the Ukrainian government is worried about national security:

“The threat weighing on Ukraine’s national security which we cannot fight alone forces me to ask our close friends and strategic partners for urgent help,” Yushchenko wrote.

I wonder if President Yushchenko worried that a massive, country wide, outbreak will lead to his country being militarily vulnerable to attack…

Remember that whole Russian/Ukrainian natural gas dispute that caused Gazprom, the largest natural gas producer in the world and the largest company in Russia, to shut off natural gas delivery to the Ukraine? Well, the effects are being felt throughout the EU.

Nine countries are now experiencing problems with natural gas delivery – Slovakia, Greece, Croatia, The Czech Republic, Turkey, Poland, Hungary Romania and Bulgaria have suffered supply drops anywhere from 5 to 30%.    

Not that I am trying to be paranoid, but the leaders of the European countries need to be paying attention to this event as it has the ability to predict what an aggressive Russian government may chose to do if it decides to act aggressively in the future. As the world continues to consumer oil and natural gas, energy will be a source of conflict (more so than today).  The need for energy will, potentially, cause countries to become more aggressive, and what better way to paralyze your enemies than cutting off their energy sources?

As this disagreement continues to unfold, it will be interesting to see if European leaders decided to begin to find alternative sources for natural gas.  Will this be a trigger event that spurs change, or will the European governments remain complacent?

Let me just say, I have no issue with Russia – the comment yesterday about treasonous speak and this post on the gas conflict between Russia and the Ukraine are purely coincidental – I am simply pointing out a potential future that would I expect as natural resources become more scarce.

As energy prices rose over the last 4 years, so did Russia’s desire to once again become a major player in world politics.  This time, however, the country could actually afford to do so because the huge amounts of capital the sale of oil and gas provided to its government.  The new found money allowed Russia to start expanding their military once again, and it also provided them a means of purchasing (for lack of better words) it’s way into situations.  Think of it as a pay for play.

Now that energy prices are falling, and the demand for oil and natural gas is low in Europe (and in the world in general at this moment) Russia finds that all may not be as positive as they had previously expected.  In order to counteract the decline in energy and the credit crisis, Russia has devalued their current – the rouble – 9 times.  This has the potential to cause inflation/hyperinflation if energy prices to not improve, not to mention that fact that it also can wipe out the savings of the average Russian citizen.  

Russia is vulnerable simply because their empire is built on natural resources. They have no major industry to speak of, no goods that are produced and consumed on a mass world wide scale, so what is the country to do when their base is threatened?  Use it as a weapon – be it for self-preservation or aggression.

If you take note, Russia is talking about cutting off natural gas supplies to the Ukraine once again.  The last time this took place was in 2006.  Both sides have their own version of what is taking place.  Russia says the Ukraine is expecting unrealistic prices and that they pay off their debt.  The Ukraine says they’ve paid their debts and believes the cost of gas it too high.

I am not saying Russia is in the wrong, just imagine if Russia was acting with purely political interests in mind.  “We don’t like the President you chose, ok, we are shutting off your supply to gas.” or “You didn’t vote in our favor during the last session of the UN, your oil transfers now will come in at 10% of what you were previously getting” all suddenly become possible tools within their power.  

Not a big deal, you may be thinking – wrong.  Russia provides roughly 25% of the EUs natural gas.  If it wanted to make life difficult as an act of aggression or self-preservation, it could do so really quickly.

This is the power Russia truly has.  Unless the EU takes steps to prevent dependence on Russia, they run the risk of being help at Russia mercy. I hope that someone in Europe is paying attention to this…