The Weather Research Center, a 22 year old non-profit organization, has released their predictions for the 2009 Hurricane season.  This is interesting news as the Oil production community tends to rely on the WRC’s information to help gauge/predict potential impact on production for the coming year.  Obviously, not an exact science, but still something to pay attention…

So, what does the WRC predict for 2009?

• Number of Named Storms: 7
• Number intensifying into Hurricanes: 4
• Number of Hurricane Days: 7
• Number of Tropical Storm Days: 47
• US Landfalls: 3
• Cat 3 or Higher Storms in the Atlantic: 50%

The WCR suggests the highest risk of landfall for a Tropical Storm or Hurricane is from Louisiana to Alabama with a 70% Chance.  Mighty close to the oil production centers in the Gulf of Mexico.

When Hurricane Ike pushed through the Gulf of Mexico in 2008, the price of oil continued the previously established downward pattern.  Now that oil is range bound from $35 to $45 dollars, and OPEC has cut output drastically, what would happen to the price of oil if a major storm hit production centers in the Gulf?

Now that Gustav is a mere after thought, actually a major low-pressure system in the central United States that is expected to dump two to six inches of rain in some places, East Coast residents turn their attention to Hurricanes Hanna and Ike.

Actually, Hanna has turned back to a tropical storm and continuing to hop around the Bahamas like a drug mule picking up packages before they head back to the Atlanta airport. The big story is how much punch Hurricane Ike is packing. The sustained wind speeds of Ike are currently at roughly 115 miles per hour and the present storm course of the hurricane is heading west-northwest.

Here is my big concern – Hurricane Gustav was a dud in New Orleans as compared to Katrina. Yes, it caused damage in the Gulf, yes there was major flooding, but the nation didn’t witness (thank god) the devastation that was seen back in 2005.

Will all the people who evacuated Louisiana think they could ride out the next major storm thinking, chances are, nothing will happen? Will the relative “false alarms” cause the masses to become complacent? If so, another Katrina is possible.

Just remember, the collective memory is very short…

Update: Symonsez has outstanding hurricane coverage.