I’ve noted the situation in the Ukraine a few times – first with an ‘unknown’ virus outbreak, which became viral pneumonia, that was finally identified as H1N1.  It is important to point out the country may not have the ability to deal with/respond to an outbreak due to economic and technological issues, but after reading this article I have a question:

A total of 189 people have died in the outbreak, the health ministry said, and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has cancelled political rallies and ordered schools shut to try to curb it.

The toll included 17 deaths from the H1N1 flu, First Deputy Health Minister Vasily Lazorishinets told journalists.

So if 189 people died thus far in the ‘outbreak’ the Ukraine is facing, and only 17 died of the swine flu, what did the other 172 people die of?

Is there some other virus in the Ukraine?  Is this bad reporting? Bad records management by Ukraine officials?

I’m just saying… seems odd.

Yet another busy day leads to be missing out on the events of the world, let us jump in on a few things that came out today..

Treasure thinks Congress will raise the U.S. Debt Ceiling

Just stop!  Really.

The debt levels in the United States are growing to the point where they will become unsupportable by the Government.  Literally.  The CBO has already reported that, in a few short years (8-ish) the Government may be in a position where paying interest on the debt outstanding will be impossible.

Translation – the country will be bankrupt.

Someone needs to remind Geithner (and Congress) why the debt ceiling is in place.

One more thought on Swine Flu and the Ukraine

Yesterday I had written about the Ukrainian Swine Flu response – it seemed a bit drastic to me for roughly 4% of the population. What I had thought about but didn’t express was, due to the economic conditions of the country,  the Ukraine doesn’t have necessarily have the technology, education and/or to treat and react to an unknown outbreak let alone the swine flu.

Thanks for taking me to task on that.

And this is sad – U.S. Army Suicides reach a new high

The aftermath of the Vietnam war wasn’t the political change, it was the thousands of troops that ended up with untreated mental illness and substance abuse issues.  After putting their lives on the line for a war that, in a number of cases, they did not believe in their government simply left them to fight for themselves when returning to the ‘real world’.

When I see that the Army Suicide rate is higher than the general population I have to wonder if the government is not providing the support the troops deserve – regardless of the active status of the person.

Really, just call it the Titanic

This is one of those stories you read and simply say – “Oh, you know, this isn’t going to end well.”

The largest cruise ship in the world, the 16-deck Oasis of the Seas, found a port of call  in Ft. Lauderdale today.  I know we live in a world of excess but, really, this ship is 40% larger than any other ship on the high seas today.

While I haven’t heard anyone say the ship is unsinkable, with a capacity for 6,300 passengers and 2,100 crew this is almost like a bad made for TV moving waiting to happen.

First India, now NASA

In case you missed it, NASA has confirmed they have found large amounts of water beneath the Moon’s surface.  The first report issued by the Indian space agency stated water was “locked in the soil” and would come and go during the course of a day.  It is interesting to see NASA specifically say beneath…

Without a doubt life is out there, I’m just waiting for the day when NASA (or another space agency) finds life off earth.  I’m not saying aliens, just the very basic definition of life.

The Flu, Swine Flu and the Ukraine

During a normal flu season roughly 5% to 20% of the U.S. population will get the flu (all strains covered). If one take the “worst case” numbers 20% will translate to about 68M people.  When the CDC states that about 22M people in the U.S. have had the swine from April of 09 to October of 09 that may seem like big number but, really, it is in line what what the CDC expects in a normal flu season anyway…  And that is what I love about stats.

People like to use numbers to prove points/win arguments because the majority of the listening audience does not question the data.  Sorry to say it but there is a serious lack of critical thinking which lead does not lead to “Well, how is this different than any year?”

I’ve said it a number of times, and unless I see a set a drastic events, I will continue to say the Swine Flu is nowhere as bad as the media is making it out to be.

Another example of this may be the reaction in the Ukraine.

In a sudden fury of activity the Ukrainian government began voicing concern about national security, closing down schools nation wide, and quarantining hospitals because of a sudden rise in swine flu.  According to Ukrainian government stats, 1,192,481 people have the swine flu within the country of roughly 46 million people.

Put in another way – roughly 4.1% of their population. While I do not have average number of flu cases within the Ukraine 4% seems rather low all things considered.

Initially the outbreak was called an “unknown disease” but has since been identified as the swine flu.  Sure, facing something that has never been identified could explain the concern about national security and establishing quarantines… but, again, 4% seems rather low.

Is gold running out?

The supply of gold on the Earth is finite.  No new supplies will be created.  So, it is interesting to hear the CEO of Barrick Gold – the largest gold mining company – say the company is stopping their hedging practice.

Quick reminder: Hedging is used by companies to protect themselves from price volatility, usually buying/selling contracts of goods at a set price.

Example: I think the price of oil is going to rise in the future so I buy oil options for 4 years out at the current price ($77).  Let’s say the price of oil doubles ($144) I will only have to pay my option price ($77).  Alternatively, if the price drops over that time period I will have lost the difference between what I paid and the price at the time the option expires.

So what would cause Barrick to stop the practice of selling hedges?  There is only one answer that would fit under the current market conditions, they believe they only direction the price of gold is heading is upward.

Chicago Bears…

Yea, they suck.  Just needed to get that out there.  Sure the defense is playing as if they are a different team from last Sunday, now Jay Cutler is sucking ass and sucking hard.

Really guys, what’s up?

The Alavi Foundation

I was very surprised to see in the news that the U.S. is trying to confiscate the holdings of the Alavi Foundation.  First off, I’ve never head of the Alavi Foundation, but the U.S. claims this group is a front for the Iranian Government. Second, I’m surprised because – to the best of my knowledge – there wasn’t much, if any, word the group showing up in the press previous to this event.

Making the assumption the Alavi Foundation is a front for the Iranian Government, why is action being take at this time?  What is the cause/motivation for action? Is this a warning to the Iranian government because of their actions with regards to the nuke program?

Time to start putting the pieces together…

Lou Dobbs leaves CNN

In what came as a surprise for a number of people, Lou Dobbs is leaving CNN.  Except for a short period of time spent at space.com Dobbs was with the network since it was founded. Weird, no?

Anyone have a guess as to why he is leaving.  I’m sure there are odds in Vegas on this, but I’m going with Lou Dobbs may be considering a run for some political position.

Yes, call me nuts, but look at what he said in his speech:

And as for the important work of restoring inspiration to our great free society and our market economy, I will strive as well to be a leader in that national conversation

If that doesn’t sound like someone who is about to make a run, I don’t know what does.  I mean, for crying out loud, he had a huge picture of the American flag behind him! Yes, time will tell, but as I am a betting man this is where I would put my money.

Either there is something large going on in Eastern Europe or someone is overreacting.

Two days ago we saw an unidentified flu strain showing up in the Ukraine, today we see Romania is placing all hospitals under quarantine.

Romania’s Health Ministry Monday decided to place under quarantine all hospitals in the country, announced State Secretary Adrian Streinu-Cercel.

According to him, separate emergency wards will be opened to exclusively treat people with flu symptoms.

Starting this week, antiviral medicines will be delivered to hospitals, which will also get additional funding for purchasing surgical masks and disinfectants.

I’m trying to find more information on this but have been unable to thus far.  I find it interesting that Eastern European countries are having such an extreme reaction to the swine flu.

The news in the U.S. still is trying to push the Swine Flu as the next huge threat to humanity (no, not buying it yet) but it seems where people need to be paying attention is the Ukraine. As a sudden flu outbreak has taken place so has a round of viral pneumonia.

How bad is it in the Ukraine?  Not sure exactly as I have no contacts there but it looks like the entire country is going to be quarantined. To me the numbers do not seem dire which would make me wonder what else is going on?  Is this the swine flu going around or is this a new mutant strain?

Also, the Ukrainian government is worried about national security:

“The threat weighing on Ukraine’s national security which we cannot fight alone forces me to ask our close friends and strategic partners for urgent help,” Yushchenko wrote.

I wonder if President Yushchenko worried that a massive, country wide, outbreak will lead to his country being militarily vulnerable to attack…

So you mean the world is not ending?

If you’ve been diagnosed “probable” or “presumed”  2009 H1N1 or “swine flu”  in recent months, you may be surprised to know this: odds are you didn’t have H1N1 flu.

In fact, you probably didn’t have flu at all. That’s according to state-by-state test results obtained in a three-month-long CBS News investigation.

The ramifications of this finding are important. According to the Center for Disease Control, CDC, and Britain’s National Health Service, once you have H1N1 flu, you’re immune from future outbreaks of the same virus. Those who think they’ve had H1N1 flu — but haven’t — might mistakenly presume they’re immune. As a result, they might skip taking a vaccine that could help them, and expose themselves to others with H1N1 flu under the mistaken belief they won’t catch it. Parents might not keep sick children home from school, mistakenly believing they’ve already had H1N1 flu.

My personal take all along was the whole ’swine flu’ was over hyped.  Sure, anything can happen – suddenly 5% of the world could get sick and die – but I’m just not seeing it based off of what has happened thus far.

You HAVE to love the fact that truth can be stranger than fiction. Witness the latest example: Afghanistan’s only pig quarantined in flu fear

Afghanistan’s only known pig has been locked in a room, away from visitors to Kabul zoo where it normally grazes beside deer and goats, because people are worried it could infect them with the virus popularly known as swine flu.

“For now the pig is under quarantine, we built it a room because of swine influenza,” Aziz Gul Saqib, director of Kabul Zoo, told Reuters. “We’ve done this because people are worried about getting the flu.”

Really. Gotta love it.

You haven’t heard much about the swine flu as of late, have you?  I’m guessing that has something to do with the fact that the media got board with the topic as is now searching for the next “15 seconds of fame” story.  As a public service announcement, no, the swine flu has not disappeared.  The rate of infection is increasingly, actually:

Swine flu is spreading so far and fast in the U.S. that state health officials may soon stop counting individual cases, a federal health official said Monday.

The novel H1N1 virus accounted for 40 percent of flu viruses logged in the U.S. in the past week and helped propel an uptick in overall flu-like illnesses, said Dr. Anne Schuchat, a deputy director with the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The CDC has confirmed more than 2,000 cases in 43 states and Washington D.C., with 94 hospitalizations and three deaths. Another 700 cases are suspected. Although the flu is spreading quickly, it remains relatively mild in the U.S., say health officials. 

The unfortunate part of this whole experience was the massive amount of attention the news dedicated to this story when it first broke.  Yes, the public needed to be informed of what was going on but they didn’t need to be beaten over the head with it for two weeks on end.  I fear that doing so created, what I call, the “Hurricane False Alarm”.  

This is when a hurricane is foretasted to be the “end of the world” storm, people get in a panic, pack up, and head for higher ground.  However, when the storm ends up to be a dud, people end up wondering why they took the action in the first place.  Now, do this 4 or 5 times and the storm alert ends up loosing the impact it once had. Finally, a warning comes along for the end all, be all Hurricane but the public ignores the warning and decides to stick it out… and massive losses are witnessed. (New Orleans, anyone?)

If the Swine Flu ends up out of control, be it this season or next, the public may simply ignore the warning, thus making themselves vulnerable.

The one thing the general public has going for it with this version of the swine flu is the low mortality rate.  It appears that the rate of infection is increasing, but the mortality rate per infection is staying low – very low.  If you are wondering, here are the latest Swine Flu results.

Not getting enough info on the Swine Flu?

Here is a Twitter feed that will keep you satisfied. As a friend said, it’s “all things swine flu, all the time“.

I finally feel a bit caught up from the last few days.  It’s amazing how three days out of the normal routine can really throw things off.

Here we go…

Swine Flu?

Apparently the end of the world is here once again.  This time it’s not the economy, it’s not terrorism, it’s swine flu.  Everyone was worried about Bird Flu, but no… the pigs want to have their way with the world.

What most people don’t pay attention to – and this may be due to the fact that it’s not known outside of WHO all that much – but swine tend to be the major incubators of the new cases of flu in the world as pig easily have the ability to get multiple strains of the flu (bird/human) and then the genetic magic happens.  New versions then emerge.  Since humans and pig (farmers) live in close contact, the flu then easily spreads.

Yea, this may not be the end of the world.  Just to put things in perspective, roughly 240,000 people die world wide from normal flu.  Thus far there are 60 known deaths.  Will that go up?  Who knows…

A mash-up showing cases/suspected cases of the swine flu can be found here.

You a night owl?

I’m a night owl.  I think that I’m sharper, I think I perform better, and I think I am more relaxed later in the evening.  Actually, my peak time of operation is from 11PM to about 4AM.  It’s just the time of the day that works for me.  

Well… 

Turns out that there is evidence that the night owls may have the advantage when it comes to focusing and performance.  Cognitively, the people who are sharper in the evening may be more inclined to more focus than the “early bird” when it comes to every day tasks.

 GM to pull the plug on Pontiac?

News stories are pointing to GM making some major announcements on Monday.  One such announcement is the Pontiac brand, GM “fun” division, is going to get the ax while the company focuses on their core areas in order to complete the turn-around plan.

I have not researched the Pontiac manufacturing costs, nor have I taken steps to see if the division is profitable, but what I find interesting is they are killing off this brand while that had yearly sales of 267K units in 2008.

Why is that interesting to me?

The Pontiac sales numbers are higher than two core brands (Cadillac and Buick).  Cadillac had sales of 161K and Buick had sales of 137K.  Unless Pontiac is just leaking money, it would appear this brand has some value.  I understand that the Cadillac and Buick brands are the “badge” brands, ones that are targeted to specific groups, but simply killing off Pontiac does not appear to make sense on the surface.

Bioshock, the movie, to be put on ice?

This is just a major pisser for me.  

Rumors are abound that Bioshock, the movie after the highly successful PC game, is being put on hold due to financial/budgetary concerns. Universal says it is still committed to the project, but the move is going to remain in an extended period of pre-production.

I loved the game, one of the best I’ve ever played, and I was looking forward to a Gore Verbinski take on this fictional world.

*sigh*

Ok, I’m off!