Mish – of Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis – had a different breakdown of the stimulus plan, take a look:

Math To Date

Funds paid out so far = $83.8 billion + $52.1 billion + $71.4 billion = $207.3 billion
$207,300,000,000 / 640,329 = $323,739.83 per job created

Plan Goals Math

Now let’s assume this stimulus package will eventually create (or save) 3.5 million jobs and all the money (but no more) will be spent.

Here’s the math again.

$787,000,000,000 / 3,500,000 = $224,857.14 per job created

I wonder how Jared Bernstein, chief economist and senior economic advisor to the vice president, feels about these numbers?  If the estimate of $160K/job was “calculator abuse” yesterday what does $224K (or $323K) constitute in his book?

Remember that there is no accurate way to validate the governments claims of “saved or created”. Furthermore the claim roughly 400,000 education and construction jobs, with an average salary of $92K, is flat out unbelievable.

As of roughly 4:38 PM central time, Rod Blagojevich was no longer the Governor of Illinois.  Almost immediately after, Democratic Lt. Governor Patrick Quinn was sworn into office.  Sure, Blagojevich, made a pointless hour long speech today, trying to say he did nothing wrong, but if he really wanted to prove his innocence… maybe he would have wanted to show up at the trial instead of running around New York making talk show appearances.

What I find really interesting to see is how quickly Senator Roland Burris threw Blagojevich under the bus – “it shows loud and clear that there were serious hurdles keeping the governor from doing his job.”  It didn’t keep him from doing his job when he appointed you to the vacant Senate seat, did it now Senator Burris?

I know that political machine of today seems to have corruption interwoven into all aspects of it, but when the corruption is finally stopped – when the blatant abuse of power is confronted – it’s a wonderful thing to see.  

See ya, Blago.

The Stimulus Plan

So I am having a hard time finding specific information regarding all aspects of the Stimulus Plan, and I don’t really have the time to read it line by line right now, but I may have to in order to dig up the facts.

The two things I did find, however, I am rather bothered by.

1. Undocumented immigrants who are not eligible for a Social Security number can file tax returns with an alternative number. A House-passed version of the economic recovery bill and one making its way through the Senate would allow anyone with such a number, called an individual taxpayer identification number, to qualify for the tax credits.
2. The Make Work Pay Credit also would be refundable, meaning that even tax filers without any income tax liability — typically very low-income workers — would receive one.

The point of number 1 could be seen a number of ways.  Being the cynic that I am, I see a large push by the Democratic party to buy the votes of hundreds of thousands of potential voters.  Why potential?  The “undocumented immigrants” is a nice way of saying “illegal”.  Eventually the Democratic majority will push to legalize “undocumented immigrants”, and they will be successful, and when the next round of elections comes calling they will remember who fought for, and successfully provided them, money.

As for point number 2…If you do not pay income taxes, you should not be getting income taxes back.  That is the whole point of a tax refund – you are refunded money you gave in the last year.  Kinda hard to refund something you didn’t pay, isn’t it?  In order to provide the capital for a refund to those who didn’t pay income taxes means the country will need to add additional debt and/or raise taxes.  

Let’s cut through the political speak and call it what it is: socialism.  

People should read up on Marx to see what comes after socialism.

Obama’s Letter to Iran

I find this to be very, very interesting.  

President Obama is drafting a letter to Iran, specifically to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei , in hopes of opening official US-Iranian relations.  I find the choice of Khamenei to be very interesting because the US administration is bypassing the President of Iran.  Could this be a political move to have the Ayatollah support another candidate, say like Seyd Mohammad Khatami, who happens to be seen as a reformer as well as a positive force in US-Iranian relations…

If this letter is sent, does this also mean the US foreign policy of not talking  (well, negotiating) with terrorist organizations?  If that is the case, I wonder what the impact of such a decision will be AND does the U.S. Department of State have a plan in place for any positives or negatives?

This has the potential to be a huge political win for President Obama… or a major embarrassment….

Here are a number of thoughts I’ve had for the day, let’s dig in.

The economic stimulus

We are in a new political era, right?  The days of hardcore bipartisanship are gone now that President Obama is in office, right?   If that is the case why is it that the economic stimulus passed the House today by a vote of 244-188?  That may seem like an odd question on the face of it but add in the fact that ONLY Democratic members of the House voted yes, except for 11 who voted no, and EVERY Republican in the House voted no?

That doesn’t seem as if both parties are attempting to work together to find a solution.  I am attempting to find information as to how the proposed stimulus is to be spent, but here is the big question I have – how, exactly, will this create jobs?  The politicians say that public works initiatives will create/save the jobs in the economy but a large number of the people who have lost their employment where white collar workers.  I don’t see too many aerospace engineers, network administrators or bankers going out to build bridges, do you?

Bad Banks

When the original TARP package was announced, the one I believed the former administration was going to implement, I was all for it.  Why?  Because the government was going to buy “toxic” corporate assets. Essentially, tax the bad debt off the balance sheets of banks in exchange for some penalty.  

Made then, makes sense now, as it allows the “toxic” assets to have a value placed on them by the government.  In turn, the real estate market could start to bottom simply because mortgages have a backstop – a known minimum value – and we could start moving forward.

Why the previous administration did not actually take such action is beyond me, but I’m quite happy to see the current administration talking forming such an entity.

My post on life from yesterday

A friend had commented that, maybe, I am over analyzing life and that I should simply go with the flow a bit more.

A put some more thought into this comment, and it’s a very good comment, but I came to the conclusion that I’m actually doing as little analysis as possible without trying to control everything.  I’m looking at where I am and do I want to be here.  If not, where do I want to be?

Now, here is a big one about going with the flow…  If I did go with the flow a bit more, frankly, I would change everything.  Everything.  Simply because I would be going with the flow (what I was feeling at that time, at that moment).  Sure, I could go with the flow more but I have to restrain myself because… well… if I go with the flow, I would end up making decisions that are very unsound.  

Ok, off to work on something….

No, wait… two other things…

How is it that Starbucks cannot meet their earnings numbers?  I mean, Really?  Every time I go into ANY Starbucks it’s packed.  Is the company that poorly managed?  

Also, the USPS may drop mail delivery down to 5 days a week because they continue to post operating losses year over year.  Mail (“snail mail”) volume is falling at a large clip due to a) email and b) private carriers and what is the response of the government?  Raise rates!  That will make us more money.  Bottom line, the USPS is bloated and should compete directly against UPS or FedEx, let’s see what would happen then…

And here it begins, the Retail Industry wants help due to the poor economy.  No one is asking for a bailout, yet, they are asking President-elect Barack Obama to add a series of sales tax-exempt shopping days…

The National Retail Federation called for three periods of sales tax-free shopping that would last 10 days each in March, July and October 2009. The trade group estimates that it would save consumers about $20 billion, or $175 per family.

 

Under the industry group’s proposal, which would exclude alcohol and tobacco sales, the federal government would reimburse states for the lost tax revenue. State sales tax rates range from 2.9% to 7.25%, the group said. The five states without a sales tax — Alaska, Delaware, Montana, New Hampshire and Oregon — would also receive monies.

 

Without swift, additional Congressional measures, the current economic weakness could worsen, creating a more rapid downward spiral — beyond what economists are predicting for 2009 — in the years ahead,” the NRF said.

The retailers are setting the groundwork for asking for federal aid.  

Here is an interesting note – Amazon.com says the best holiday shopping ever. What they fail to mention is how much revenue was pulled in.  They are simply reporting how many items were sold.

UPDATE: TechCrunch has a breakout of the number of items ordered.