Van Santos

Roughly a month ago someone cracked into Sarah Palin’s Yahoo! email. At that time there seemed to be very little outrage from the press and there appeared to be little to no reaction from law enforcement. Well, turns out the FBI didn’t forget about this case…

David Kernell, 20, of Knoxville, Tenn., the son of state Rep. Mike Kernell, was scheduled to be arraigned Wednesday before U.S. Magistrate Judge C. Clifford Shirley, according to a statement from the Justice Department…Kernell, an economics major at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville, faces a maximum of five years in prison, a $250,000 fine and a three-year term of supervised release.”

As David’s father is a Democrat and the chairman of Tennessee’s House Government Operations Committee, you can bet he’s worried about his job right about now.

Leading into the VP debate I saw two things consistently - the press set expectations so low everyone expected Palin to fail and some of the public was claiming they could have done a better job in the debate (and the debate hadn’t even taken place yet).

Gone were the expectations that Palin was going to wipe the floor with Biden or that she was going to show off her expert political ability, no, most people were expecting a train wreck of James Stockdale proportions…. and that is why, it seemed, the majority of people were tuning in but it didn’t happen.  Frankly, not much of anything happened.  So what was the hour of talk all about then?

There was minimal sparring at best, neither candidate directly answered questions to any substantive degree, Biden came off as slightly arrogant while Palin had an appearance of acting too sweet, and there was nothing presented by either camp to advance their position.  All and all, a good waste of time.

I cannot see how the performance yesterday would have helped (or harmed) either party.  Biden didn’t look “Vice Presidential”, nor did Sarah.  Neither individual provided energy for the base, neither really swayed voters or pundits….   Yesterday was, truly, just “Ho Hum”

John McCain ran a poor campaign, plain and simple.  Many pundits feel McCain’s efforts were so poor the Bob Dole campaign looked good in comparison.  There was hope for Republicans when Sarah Palin joined the ticket but the sudden rock star status turned negative quickly as the press began to hammer her abilities and credentials.  After the Republican convention McCain got a bump in number, overtaking Obama for roughly a week, and then the reality of the financial crisis set in.  Today, Obama leads McCain by 7 to 9 points.

The party is over, and the McCain camp knows it.  Word came out today that the McCain campaign will be discontinuing ads / campaigning in the state of Michigan – a battleground state.  If McCain had a chance, would he be pulling back the troops?

Unless there is a drastic change of events, come election day, I suspect Obama will be winning by a wide margin.

If you missed the missed the “big” story on news yesterday, and there is a good chance you did, hackers from the group Anonymous claimed to have cracked Sarah Palin’s email account. The group, the same which has been going after the Church of Scientology this past year, provided screen shots and a list of email addresses within a posting on the 4chan website Wednesday. My two questions regarding this situation are 1) is the situation truly investigated and 2) where is the outrage?

The Anchoress says:

I don’t know anyone who has not occasionally used their private email for business and vice versa. But that’s not the point. What they’ve done to Palin is criminal and can bring jailtime.

She is spot. First off, this was a criminal act. Let’s ignore the fact that she is candidate for vice president for a moment and remember that she is an American citizen and, as such, is entitled to all rights extended to citizens of the U.S. When one takes the very basic definition of this act, the perpetrator is facing is wire fraud:

Whoever, having devised or intending to devise any scheme or artifice to defraud, or for obtaining money or property by means of false or fraudulent pretenses, representations, or promises, transmits or causes to be transmitted by means of wire, radio, or television communication in interstate or foreign commerce, any writings, signs, signals, pictures, or sounds for the purpose of executing such scheme or artifice, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both. If the violation affects a financial institution, such person shall be fined not more than $1,000,000 or imprisoned not more than 30 years, or both.

A few news articles point to the Secret Service investigation the event, but shouldn’t there be more involved the agency? Shouldn’t the FBI be involved? Granted, there may be significant movement behind the scenes that is not being publicized, but one would think the campaign – or someone – would want to take steps to show the public this is being address.

As for the outrage… why are the commentators now up in arms about this invasion of privacy and criminal act? Someone makes a question or comment about Barack Obama’s former minister and press goes wild but when a crime takes place, barely a word is on the wires. Better yet, how come the Barack Obama campaign has not spoke out against the cracking?

I NO way am I implying the Obama campaign has any connection to this event, but he needs to protect himself. A few weeks ago I wrote the following:

2008 is no longer the election about Barack Obama or having Sarah Palin as the Vice President. Change is no longer going to be the focus and the issues are quickly moving to the background. This election is officially about being negative. The general public will be turned off by the low blows and dirty politics, which will only hurt the campaign that is the most negative. The candidate who suffers a loss come November is the candidate who, along with their supporters, was the one who ran the most negative campaign.

While neither campaign can control the actions of others, they do need to speak out against items that can been seen as negative. I believe if the Obama camp does not come out an condemn the actions of this group there is a portion of the general public that can see this event as tied to him. They will remember, while not his doing, he did nothing only adding to the perception of a negative campaign.

Update: Jeffrey A. Setaro points out the FBI is looking into the event.

What others are saying:

Let me be very blunt about polling and surveys before I continue on.  Penn and Teller did an outstanding job showing how polling can often be just pure Bullsh*t.  A pollster can structure a question in order to obtain the answer they, or the person who hired them, are looking for.  When a firm such as Zogby or Gallup conducts presidential polling; however, the question usually is usually not leading to a specific answer and unbiased.  That said, let’s look at the current polling information.

USAToday: McCain 50% / Obama 46%
Gallup: McCain 49% / Obama 44%
Zogby: McCain 49.7% / Obama 45.9%
Realclearpolitics Avergage: McCain 48.3% / Obama 45.4%

A number of things are, most likely, reflective in this data.  The Obama DNC bounce has faded back to previous level, the RNC convention gave McCain his post election bounce, and Sarah Palin has taken over the national spotlight.   There are a number undercurrents that could also be included, but that would be pure speculation.

Both campaigns need to face the reality that they are running into the home stretch of the election.  With some 50 odd days left the polls will continue to swing unless one of the campaigns makes a huge error.  If an egregious, publicly embarrassing event is committed by either candidate you can bet the polls will swing away from them and stay away, thus causing them a loss.

Much like the Sarah Palin speech, Republicans need to keep their focus.  Yes, it’s nice to be “up” in the polls but with 57 days left it is meaningless. Do NOT become overconfident.

Other Reactions:

Hot Air - Gallup: McCain 48, Obama 45 — outside the margin of error

Hennessy’s View - McCain Lead Outside Margin of Error

AlphaPatriot - Dems are the New “Status Quo”

Guntotingliberal - John McCain Flip-Flops Again, This Time By Enjoying The Sarah Palin “Barracuda Bump”

internet scofflaw - McCain Leads

Rightvoices.com - MCCAIN TAKES 10-POINT LEAD OVER OBAMA IN LIKELY VOTERS…Good News: There Is A Convention Bounce Gallup Has McCain Up 48% to 45% Over Obama

Blue Crab Boulevard - Tea Leaves and Caution

Scared Monkeys - Panic time for Obama

Have you had a moment to read the New York Times article discussing the birth of Palin’s son, Trig? Personally, I think the title of the article is misleading as the story really isn’t about Politics; it’s about Sarah as a mother.

There are three things that really stand out in this piece:

But as the governor introduced her son that day, according to a friend, Kristan Cole, she said she had come to regard him as a blessing from God. “Who of us in this room has the perfect child?”

And

But her son has given Ms. Palin, 44, a powerful message. Other candidates kiss strangers’ babies; Ms. Palin has one of her own. He is tangible proof of Ms. Palin’s anti-abortion convictions, which have rallied social conservatives, and her belief that women can balance family life with ambitious careers.

And

Inside Ms. Palin’s room, her daughter Willow, 14, immediately noticed her new brother’s condition, according to People magazine. “He looks like he has Down syndrome,” Willow said. “Why didn’t you tell us?”

This article really makes her look… human, not a politician.

She is willing to accept the flaws in her child, as a mother would. She is balancing life and career, as any FAMILY would. She is protective of her family, as any good parent should be. To me the above shows Ms. Palin as a mother, not as a politician, and this, I believe, is what really helps her connect with both men and women alike.

How does one politically combat this? I mean to say, if this is a driving factor in why someone is voting or connecting to the McCain / Palin ticket, do you attack her for being a mother and Vice President? That would be sexist in every sense. Do you attack her for having a Down Syndrome child? Who are her political opponents to question what is best for her family.

This is the big issue Democrats have to face and it will be interesting to see how they attack it.

I’ve been holding off, no, ignoring, the “story” about Sarah Palin having an affair with her husband’s business partner.  Why?  Because there was nothing, NOTHING, more than speculation on the part of… well…  everyone.

Here is the quick back story - Scott Richter, a Palin business partner, filed a sealing motion in Alaska Court to have his divorce records sealed.  All of a sudden some members of the left think Sarah Palin MUST have been the cause.  I mean, why else would someone want to have his or her court records sealed?

Left leaning bloggers kept asking the question “why won’t the media pay attention to this story”? Easy, it wasn’t a story.  Thus far there is zero proof that anything illegal or questionable has happen.  Melissa Clouthier can point us to the answer, which was uncovered by thesmokingun.com:

According to the filing, Richter wanted the documents deemed confidential in a bid to cloak details about his home, workplace, and phone numbers because “reporters and news agencies” were using that information to contact him.

Running for public office, especially on a national level, must be an incredibly stressful event.  I cannot even image what Palin and her family is experiencing on a daily basis because of this.  You can find photoshopped pictures of her on the Web, rumors of her having an affair, false claims about her daughter…I wonder what the next thing will be…  We will have to wait but I think we can call this one closed.

ABCNews.com is raising the question: Is Oprah biased with regards to the Republican vice president candidate, Sarah Palin?   Almost immediately Oprah came out with the following statement:

“At the beginning of the presidential campaign, when I decided that I was going to take my first public stance in support of a candidate, I made the decision not to use my show as a platform for any of the candidates, I agree that Sarah Palin would be a fantastic interview, and I would love to have her on after the campaign is over.”

The big problem people are having with this statement is that Oprah is appearing to conflict her very own position.  She made the decision to not use her show as a platform for any of the candidates but she had no problem having Barack on her show or campaigning for him.  Sure, the argument could be made that Oprah campaigning for Barack isn’t biased, she is doing what she believes nt but it’s hard to support that argument when your name is synonymous with your show and magazine.

I look at this whole situation and ask “so what”.

Oprah isn’t the “news media” she is an entertainer.  Yes, she is a very influential entertainer, with seemingly endless fans who give heavy weight to what she says but she doesn’t need to provide equal coverage to anyone.  It’s her show and she can do what she damn well wants.

This is one issue I wish would simply fade into the background because it’s not really worth the time or effort. Oprah could very well be biased but the American public has a general sense of right and wrong.  If public opinion does convict her, she will feel the short-term pain in loss of viewer ship or distribution of her magazine – that is when her tone will change.

Update: I Perceive wonders if Oprah is racist

Yesterday I posted info that showed roughly 37 million people watched Sarah Palin give her speech.  Today, the AP is showing that she topped 40 million viewers - 2 million more than Obama.

That is impressive.

Last night, for the first time in almost a year, I was excited about your campaign. Your running mate did an outstanding job introducing herself to the public, showing what the future of Republican politics could be. That single speech did more for your campaign than you did (aside from picking her) and there was no way you could outperformed her, she did set the bar very high, but what happened?

No, seriously, what happen?

At times you seemed very comfortable and not the John McCain I’ve seen in the past. Was it the protesters who interrupted your speech? I thought you did an outstanding job of handling a situation that could have been very uncomfortable. Was the crowd that applauded at random times – times you didn’t expect? I could see how that would throw one off, but still… what happened?

I don’t mean to take credit away from your performance; after all you did get your main message points across - you will fight for the people, the Republican party has gone to far the its values, Obama has no way to pay for his programs – but I am worried about the perception.

Sarah was dynamic, you were not. Sarah was engaging, you were not. Sarah made people feel as if she was one of them; you came close but didn’t totally sell it. What Sarah has, that appeal, is also what Obama has and is what you will need to face in the upcoming debates.

Maybe you will be quite comfortable in a one-on-one setting, with out the teleprompter. Maybe this is where you will shine. I am worried; however, that you are going to be perceived as, well, old and disconnected.

You have a lot of political capital thanks to your running mate, the race is much more complex than it was two weeks ago, and you have a fighting chance. Don’t waste your ace in the hole by becoming what people expect you to be – disconnected.