Here is another indicator of the weak job market, brought to us by the friendly people at the U.S. Department of labor:

In the week ending May 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 637,000, an increase of 32,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 605,000. The 4-week moving average was 630,500, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 624,500.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 2 was 6,560,000, an increase of 202,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 6,358,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,337,250, an increase of 128,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 6,208,500.

A few things to note regarding this data:

• The initial claims number, while high, is roughly 30K less than the peak number (for this recession) that was established a few weeks ago

• The continued claims of 6.56M is a new record

• If GM goes into bankruptcy, it is reasonable to expect that initial claims will remain high even if other areas of the job market improve slightly

• If initial claims remain high, there will be a cascade effect to other areas of the economy – namely retail.

Bottom line: The “green shoots” of hope seen by the Federal Reserve are long since gone. While the economy may be in a bottoming process, we are far from being in a good position.

And here it begins, the Retail Industry wants help due to the poor economy.  No one is asking for a bailout, yet, they are asking President-elect Barack Obama to add a series of sales tax-exempt shopping days…

The National Retail Federation called for three periods of sales tax-free shopping that would last 10 days each in March, July and October 2009. The trade group estimates that it would save consumers about $20 billion, or $175 per family.

 

Under the industry group’s proposal, which would exclude alcohol and tobacco sales, the federal government would reimburse states for the lost tax revenue. State sales tax rates range from 2.9% to 7.25%, the group said. The five states without a sales tax — Alaska, Delaware, Montana, New Hampshire and Oregon — would also receive monies.

 

Without swift, additional Congressional measures, the current economic weakness could worsen, creating a more rapid downward spiral — beyond what economists are predicting for 2009 — in the years ahead,” the NRF said.

The retailers are setting the groundwork for asking for federal aid.  

Here is an interesting note – Amazon.com says the best holiday shopping ever. What they fail to mention is how much revenue was pulled in.  They are simply reporting how many items were sold.

UPDATE: TechCrunch has a breakout of the number of items ordered.