Van Santos

I was in the process of writing a very long, very detailed criticism of President Obama’s choice of Sonia Sotomayor for the Supreme Court.  I’ve given up.

Sure, I went into detail about her views that judging should be based on empathy, not on reason. I had plenty of quotes on how she has stated it impossible for the poor to overcome in the United States, even though that is exactly what she did.  I was going to go into detail on how she believes sex and race play a part in the judicial process, sometimes overshadowing the law.  I was also going to cover how she has a history of having her decision overturned and a lack of case review on her part.  But, as I said, I’ve give up.

Why?

It is a fruitless effort.  

It was clear Mr. Obama wanted specific type of person for the open Supreme Court position.  All of the final choices were women, most with an “activist” agenda.  He wasn’t interested in finding the right person for the job, he was looking for a label. It’s also clear that Republican’s cannot truly oppose her choice as they will be labeled racist.

That wouldn’t be the case – they would be opposing simply because she is not qualified and apparently biased in her role…but that is now how the press would spin it.

Think about this. What happens if you apply for a job that you are not qualified for?  

Most likely, you are not going to get an interview let alone get the job. The second an institution starts picking people because of their age, sex and/or ethnic background creditability is instantly lost. If you are not picking the most qualified person available, why are you picking anyone at all?

This isn’t a political issue – she has had both Democratic and Republican support in her career – this is about doing the right thing.  Based off of everything I’ve read in the last 12 hours, she is not the right choice.  There are a number of highly qualified individuals, both men and women, would should be filling this role. Sonia Sotomayor is not one of those choice.

“We uphold our fundamental principles and values not just because we choose to, but because we swear to — not because they feel good, but because they help keep us safe, When America strays from our values, it not only undermines the rule of law, it alienates us from our allies, it energizes our adversaries and it endangers our national security and the lives of our troops.” - President Obama

Just like we were safe in Beirut, 1983.

Just like our nation was safe in February of 1993 when the World Trade Center was bombed.

Much like we were safe from simultaneous car bomb explosions during the 1998 embassy bombings.

Also, our fundamental policies can point to the safety that protected the USS Cole.

How about September 11th, 2001? Without a doubt, safety was granted to us that day because of what we believe in.

What will grant the the United States, or any nation, safey? It’s called national security. For years, under Carter, Regan, Bush(I) and Clinton the United States basically turned the other cheek against terrorism. Since 9/11, and the mentality changed, there have been *NO* major terror attacks against U.S. interests.

How did it change? Maybe it was the fact that we stopped accepting such actions as a reality.

When the U.S. took the fight to the terrorists, it WAS holding the values and principles of the United States by protecting the life and liberty of others. It WAS acting as a nation with principles should. Ignoring reality is not a principle or value, it is a liability.

According to our President, it’s because we were to busy not upholding U.S. principles and values as he views the world. By that very logic, and documented history, returning what he calls “fundamental principles and values” will only return the U.S. to an unacceptable level of risk and weakened security. If he cannot see that, he should not be in the position of providing protection to this nation.

Online gaming site Superbook.com is already setting odds for the Republican nominee in 2012.  The nation is only two months past the last election and people are already looking to the next election.  You cannot be serious, can you?

So, what do the bookmakers think of the next election? First the Republicans nomination… Sarah Palin’s odds are at 3.5-1,  Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney are set at 4-1, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, comes in at 5-1. 

On the Democratic side, Obama is favored to win the nomination and a second term (didn’t see that one coming, did you?)

Our nation is facing enough at this point – the economy, energy just to name two – do we really need to focus on what will be taking place in politics 4 years from now.  Let’s worry about what we have to fix first then pay attention to the next election.

Just my .02

John McCain ran a poor campaign, plain and simple.  Many pundits feel McCain’s efforts were so poor the Bob Dole campaign looked good in comparison.  There was hope for Republicans when Sarah Palin joined the ticket but the sudden rock star status turned negative quickly as the press began to hammer her abilities and credentials.  After the Republican convention McCain got a bump in number, overtaking Obama for roughly a week, and then the reality of the financial crisis set in.  Today, Obama leads McCain by 7 to 9 points.

The party is over, and the McCain camp knows it.  Word came out today that the McCain campaign will be discontinuing ads / campaigning in the state of Michigan – a battleground state.  If McCain had a chance, would he be pulling back the troops?

Unless there is a drastic change of events, come election day, I suspect Obama will be winning by a wide margin.

As the United States quickly moves toward the Presidential Elections many people are waiting for an “October Surprise” – an event that will drastically change the election in favor of one candidate.  The major event influencing the race today is the financial bailout currently working its way through Congress. Without a doubt the economic turmoil has favored Barack Obama, showing his lead in the polls growing as the uncertainty continues to grow, but will there be another event to swing the momentum in favor of McCain?

Maybe an Israeli attack on Iran?

Earlier in the year Israel apparently asked the United States for permission to attack Iranian nuclear facilities but was denied by the Bush administration.  As Iran progresses with the nuclear program Israel feels, more and more, their very existence is threatened.  As a result, the Israeli government will do what they feel is best for their safety – attack Iran.

Will they do so before the election?  Is so, will this be the “October Surprise” that swings the favor to McCain or will the US public move even closer to Obama?

From everything one hears in the news there seems to be small – slight – signs pointing to an energy crunch in the United States, if not the world.  Many believe the world is / has reached a “peak oil” scenario - worldwide production of conventional crude oil peaks in volume resulting in the rise of oil prices due to the lack of easily accessible oil – and energy costs will continue to rise over the coming decades.  The trend already may been seen in pricing costs.

In the past 7 years oil prices have moved from less than $30/barrel to almost $100/barrel while oil field discoveries are starting to slow and are coming from more remote locations than every before.  Add political and economic instability to the mix and it could be easy to see why prices would move upward.

Little does the general public know but the United States actually has roughly the third largest oil reserves in the world – welcome to Oil Sands.  This source of energy, oil specifically, is not what one would typically expect from oil – the whole gusher and drilling rig – rather oil is trapped in shale and sand which requires companies to utilize a separation process in order to gain access to the oil.  The problem with this procedure is cost.

Crude oil, historically, was at a price point that “normal” margins for Oil Companies when producing resources in the United States.  At $30 a barrel a company had a profit margin of roughly 11%.  Just for perspective, Microsoft’s profit margin in roughly 30% and Coke’s in about 20%.  The way oil companies were making their profit was on volume.

Due to the high cost of extraction cost of Oil Sands, at $30/barrel it was highly unprofitable for an oil company deal with this form of energy.  Essentially, the price of oil needs to be above $75/barrel in order for oil producers to even break even with Oil sands.  Now that energy costs are trending higher, it makes both fiscal and political sense to tap this resource.

So, let me ask you this - With an energy crisis, rising prices and the fact that the U.S. has 40 Billion barrels of estimated oil in sands; wouldn’t you think the government should be promoting the development of this energy?

Harry Reid does not.

He wants to continue limiting the use of this oil, making it difficult for companies to extract, as well as have access to the land on which the oil sits.  While it does not remove our focus from oil to clean energy, accessing this oil would help limit our exposure to foreign and possible hostile governments.  Isn’t that part of the reason for facing the energy crisis head on?

If we are indeed facing an energy crisis can someone, please, explain to me how this is in the United States best interests?

Just a week ago the Democrats and Republicans alike were under the impression Bacak Obama was going to have a problem with his fundraising efforts (I commented on that here) but the Obama camp released the August fundraising numbers - $66 million.

Now that the conventions are finished and there are 51 days left until the election, let’s see how both camps do raising money.

Very impressive on Obama’s part. As I said before, polls are one thing but money is something you cannot argue.

I have a big problem when someone tells me how to live my life. The majority of my time on this world I’ve spent creating an environment that allows me the flexibility to make decisions on my future with minimal input from the outside world. While I know I do not live on the proverbial desert island, I will always have outside influences, I want to decide what is best for me – not have someone else do it for me. That is why this story on the election, and Obama, gets me:

All 22 countries covered in the poll would prefer to see Senator Obama elected US president ahead of Republican John McCain. In 17 of the 22 nations, people expect relations between the US and the rest of the world to improve if Senator Obama wins… “Large numbers of people around the world clearly like what Barack Obama represents,” GlobeScan chairman Doug Miller said.

Two things strike me right away:

1. What exactly does Obama Represent?
2. How does the rest of the world know what he represents if the general American voting public is having a hard time understanding what he brings to the table?

From what I’ve read in the press, and from Obama’s website, his positions are rather liberal, borderline socialist, to me. I don’t mean that in a “darn those liberals” sense but helping free services for everyone and raising taxes sense.

If you look at other the political landscape of countries most are extensively more liberal than the United States. A large number of countries believe in large social aide programs, universal / near universal health care, significant gun control and simply giving to their people simply for the sake that they are citizens. My guess that is exactly why other countries like Obama – they see in him what they have in their government. So, when I see an article like this I can almost hear the world saying “Look, he’s like us – you should take him so you are like us.”

For better or worse the United States has made its way on its own terms. Sometimes the world loves what we’ve done, others not so much. The thing is I wouldn’t have it any other way. Simply because one is used to a liberal government doesn’t mean it would work for the U.S.

9/10/08 Update:

Guardian.co.uk - The world’s verdict will be harsh if the US rejects the man it yearns for

FTA:

If Americans choose McCain, they will be turning their back on the rest of the world, choosing to show us four more years of the Bush-Cheney finger. And I predict a deeply unpleasant shift…If Americans reject Obama, they will be sending the clearest possible message to the rest of us - and, make no mistake, we shall hear it.

This statement is akin to saying electing Obama is like having a second Kennedy administration. Two different people standing up for what they believe in.  All Democrats are not the same, all Republicans are not the same.   Yes, McCain is a Republican but not a Bush disciple.  There is a clear history showing how Bush / McCain do not get along.

It sure seems as if the world is trying to tell us what to do… Don’t elect McCain or else (and I picture someone waving a finger at us as if we are a kid who just got caught with their hand in a cookie jar).  I have questions about McCain, but even more about Obama.  My desire to see McCain in office grows more and more every day - seeing articles like this in the press only helps it grow.

Without a doubt, polls can be utter crap – we pointed that out yesterday. Sure they show McCain in the lead but that really doesn’t mean anything at this point. What is hard to dispute is cash.

According to this CBS article, McCain pulled in $5 Million dollars in 5 hours. That is one heck of an accomplishment for a guy who was having problems rising any funding almost three months ago. What is even more interesting is the money was raised in Barack Obama’s backyard – Chicago. I am not suggesting McCain has a chance in Illinois but such successful fundraising effort in the largely Democratic Chicago is very impressive.

If cash is a barometer take a look at Obama. Reports are coming out that he is having a hard time reaching his fund raising goals. The trend appears to have started in June. Is this a sign that his support is starting to wane for the Senator or simply the up and down of a political campaign?

In business it is often suggested that if one wants to understand why and event is happening, if one wants to get a general sense of where things are headed, the prudent thing to do is follow the money. I believe the same is true in politics.

Others say…

Rightvoices wonders if Obama is running out of fund raising options
Hotair does a breakdown of some numbers
Swamppolitics - McCain-backers say fundraising has ‘taken on a life of its own’ with Palin

Let me be very blunt about polling and surveys before I continue on.  Penn and Teller did an outstanding job showing how polling can often be just pure Bullsh*t.  A pollster can structure a question in order to obtain the answer they, or the person who hired them, are looking for.  When a firm such as Zogby or Gallup conducts presidential polling; however, the question usually is usually not leading to a specific answer and unbiased.  That said, let’s look at the current polling information.

USAToday: McCain 50% / Obama 46%
Gallup: McCain 49% / Obama 44%
Zogby: McCain 49.7% / Obama 45.9%
Realclearpolitics Avergage: McCain 48.3% / Obama 45.4%

A number of things are, most likely, reflective in this data.  The Obama DNC bounce has faded back to previous level, the RNC convention gave McCain his post election bounce, and Sarah Palin has taken over the national spotlight.   There are a number undercurrents that could also be included, but that would be pure speculation.

Both campaigns need to face the reality that they are running into the home stretch of the election.  With some 50 odd days left the polls will continue to swing unless one of the campaigns makes a huge error.  If an egregious, publicly embarrassing event is committed by either candidate you can bet the polls will swing away from them and stay away, thus causing them a loss.

Much like the Sarah Palin speech, Republicans need to keep their focus.  Yes, it’s nice to be “up” in the polls but with 57 days left it is meaningless. Do NOT become overconfident.

Other Reactions:

Hot Air - Gallup: McCain 48, Obama 45 — outside the margin of error

Hennessy’s View - McCain Lead Outside Margin of Error

AlphaPatriot - Dems are the New “Status Quo”

Guntotingliberal - John McCain Flip-Flops Again, This Time By Enjoying The Sarah Palin “Barracuda Bump”

internet scofflaw - McCain Leads

Rightvoices.com - MCCAIN TAKES 10-POINT LEAD OVER OBAMA IN LIKELY VOTERS…Good News: There Is A Convention Bounce Gallup Has McCain Up 48% to 45% Over Obama

Blue Crab Boulevard - Tea Leaves and Caution

Scared Monkeys - Panic time for Obama