Sep
08
Posted (Van Santos) in Business, Weather on September-8-2008

First the good news – models suggest New Orleans looks to miss the brunt of Hurricane Ike.

The bad new – compare the storm track above with the Gulf Coast Oil platforms and you’ll see the production area is on the east side of the storm, not a good area to be. I’m surprised oil prices managed to stay below $110 with the storm on the way. Maybe the oil bubble is over, maybe the market really doesn’t think this will hurt production…

The really bad news – Houston could be the new target of the storm.



 
Sep
06
Posted (Van Santos) in Weather on September-6-2008

Not tryin to be an alarmist, but the new Hurricane Ike strom tracks suggest this storm will miss Florida and head into the gulf.   (second view) NOAA is reporting:

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH..IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR
EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH…185 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.

As I had previously feard, this storm will – most likley – drive up Oil and Natural gas prices when companies shut down platforms due to danger.  What that means for us: depending on the size of the storm,  and the government take over of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, gas prices could rise sharply in the next few weeks.

Why the storm and Freddie and Fannie?  Fear helps drive oil price.

If the storm slows after it passes the Turks Islands, if the life of the storm isn’t as strong, industry could be out of the woods.  What is yet to bee seen, however, is where it will make landfall…

More to come.