Yesterday I wondered why China was speaking out on Iran and “diplomatic” efforts. My thought was related to oil, and I believe that plays a large factor as China is looking to Iran to meet their energy needs, but it may also be due to China providing nuke-tech to Iran.

Something I had not considered.

From the Guardian:

A Taiwanese company agreed to a request from a firm in China to procure sensitive components with nuclear uses, then shipped them to Iran, the firm’s head said Friday. Such transactions violate U.N. sanctions imposed on the Middle Eastern nation.

In a telephone interview with The Associated Press, Lin said he received an Internet order from a Chinese firm in January or February 2008 to obtain an unspecified number of pressure transducers, which convert pressure into analog electrical signals.

While pressure transducers have many commercial uses, they furnish the precise measurements needed in the production of weapons-grade uranium.

While the company who sent the technology wasn’t based it China (Taiwan) the order came from an Chinese firm. 

Kinda reminds you of Germany and France putting up resistance to the Iraq war. Oh, maybe because Germany was heavily involved with weapon sales to Iraq and the French had ties to nuke technology.

If you happened to be focused on other things yesterday, say like the House passing health care legislation late on a Saturday night, you may have missed a semi-important story about the Iranian nuke saga.

Over the last several months the press, several governments, and pundits world wide have given Iran a lot of attention.  Specifically, what is the true intent of the nuclear program current underway.  Is it for energy, as Iran would have the world believe, or for something a bit more questionable?

World leaders gave Iran the  benefit of the doubt – or the appearance of the benefit of the doubt – and offered a solution to the country.  The basis such belief was this: If the Iranian government was truly interested in producing nuclear energy, let Russia enrich nuclear fuel rod for that purpose.

Iran gave an initial “yes” but that didn’t last for long.

“Iran is not to give any of its 1,200 kilograms (of) fuel to the other party to receive 20 percent (enriched) fuel and whether gradually or at once, this will not be done and is called off,” Boroujerdi reportedly told ISNA.

I fully believe Iranian government wants nuclear weapons – if they don’t have them already. This isn’t to “wipe Israel off the map” as the Iranian leadership has suggested, but to remove any government in the mid-east that does not share the same religious values the of the Iranian government; however, I also feel like there is a mild march to way that is being pushed by a number of world powers.

Over and over Iran has shown to the world they will not honor deals brokered by the UN, Russia or any other government.  They will act in the manner that best fits their wants and desires.  This only gives others (Israel and the US) the ability to push for war…  the balanced dance of mid-east politics may come to an explosive end if clear  minds do not prevail.

Whoa, where in the world did this come from?

North Korea is saying they’ve had a successful underground nuclear weapons test on Monday. While they’ve been busy testing missiles the last month or so, this one seems out of the blue – well, to me anyway.

There seems to be a lot of gaps in the story thus far, but here is what CNN has:

The announcement came little more than an hour after the U.S. Geological Survey reported a magnitude 4.7 seismic disturbance at the site of North Korea’s first nuclear test, in October 2006. The North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency said Monday’s test was conducted “as part of the measures to bolster up its nuclear deterrent for self-defense in every way.”

“The current nuclear test was safely conducted on a new higher level in terms of its explosive power and technology of its control and the results of the test helped satisfactorily settle the scientific and technological problems arising in further increasing the power of nuclear weapons and steadily developing nuclear technology,” KCNA announced.

Let’s assume this is correct and indeed a nuke this, not some HUGE pile of normal explosives, why is North Korea testing another nuke?  Are they attempting to gain attention from the west (and their neighbors) because they are looking for some type of concession?  Is there a political problem internal to the country and this is the governments way of flexing muscle?

This all seems very… oddly timed.

As the United States quickly moves toward the Presidential Elections many people are waiting for an “October Surprise” – an event that will drastically change the election in favor of one candidate.  The major event influencing the race today is the financial bailout currently working its way through Congress. Without a doubt the economic turmoil has favored Barack Obama, showing his lead in the polls growing as the uncertainty continues to grow, but will there be another event to swing the momentum in favor of McCain?

Maybe an Israeli attack on Iran?

Earlier in the year Israel apparently asked the United States for permission to attack Iranian nuclear facilities but was denied by the Bush administration.  As Iran progresses with the nuclear program Israel feels, more and more, their very existence is threatened.  As a result, the Israeli government will do what they feel is best for their safety – attack Iran.

Will they do so before the election?  Is so, will this be the “October Surprise” that swings the favor to McCain or will the US public move even closer to Obama?

Just a quick reality check.

Iran has the second largest proven natural gas reserve in the world, second to to Russia. Iran also roughly 10 percent of the world’s total proven petroleum reserves and sits on one of the largest oil fields in the world so, when the Iranian government says their nuclear program is of a “Peaceful nature” I am a bit skeptical.

Now Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, has “serious concern” and stated:

Iran needs to give the agency substantive information to clear up suspicions…We need, however, to make use of all relevant information to be able to confirm that no no nuclear material is being used for nuclear weapons purposes”

I have no issues with the Iranian people, I simply have a great deal of skepticism of government (Iranian or otherwise) at this point. Furthermore, the U.N. has proven itself to be a lame duck organization, unable to govern itself out of a paper bag, which only raises my doubts even more.

At this point the E.U. needs to wake up and look at what is in their back yard. The only way Iran will disclose their activities is from financial pressure from Europe.

UPDATE:

Here is an interesting WSJ Opinion write up by Richard Holbrooke, James Woolsey, Dennis Ross and Mark Wallace – a good bi-partisan group of highly qualified individuals. The article can be summed up by this paragraph:

Tehran claims that it is enriching uranium only for peaceful energy uses. These claims exceed the boundaries of credibility and science. Iran’s enrichment program is far larger than reasonably necessary for an energy program. In past inspections of Iranian nuclear sites, U.N. inspectors found rare elements that only have utility in nuclear weapons and not in a peaceful nuclear energy program. Iran’s persistent rejection of offers from outside energy suppliers or private bidders to supply it with nuclear fuel suggests it has a motive other than energy in developing its nuclear program. Tehran’s continual refusal to answer questions from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about this troublesome part of its nuclear program suggests that it has something to hide.