As I had mentioned previously, the storm track for Ike seems to change by the hour.  Models have the system moving back toward Houston about 24 hours after it looked as if Ike was going to the US/Mexican border and a Hurricane warning is extended almost to New Orleans.

The evacuation orders in Texas are also starting, and Houston is starting to feel the worry that a storm of this size can bring.  What really surprises me is, with nearly 96% of oil production off line in the Gulf, the price of oil continues to decline.  That says a lot, I believe…

More to come.

Ike slammed into the Bahamas causing serious damage, hurt the relief efforts already underway in already suffering Haiti, and just went ashore in Cuba roughly an hour ago.  The storm is now a Category 3 Hurricane, down froma 4, and is expected to come in to the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday or Wednesday.

The current storm track can be found here and here.  Storm models show Ike drifting east or west of New Orleans, which can give the city a break but can mean trouble for Houston, Mississippi or Alabama.

Something to keep in mind: the price of oil.  NYMEX Crude and Nymex Henry Hub Futures (Natural Gas) are both up 2.26 and 3.0% respectively.  If the storm causes a shutdown of oil / gas production and OPEC cuts oil output expect the prices to rise.

Update: Oil Price Coverage

• WSJ – Energy sector Hums Again
• Reuters – Oil rises over $2 to top $108 on hurricane threat

  From the Reuters article…

Hurricane Ike is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico as a severe Category 4 storm, a U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency official said on Sunday. It may threaten Gulf energy rigs that account for a quarter of U.S. oil output and 15 percent of natural gas production.

• AP – Gulf oil and gas producers give Ike a serious look

With nearly 88 percent of crude-oil and 74 percent of natural-gas output shut due to Hurricane Gustav, it is easy to see how Ike could shut down all production once again.

New Orleans, get ready to move! It looks like the storm is headed right for you. Here is the latest projected path for Hurricane Ike.

The Hurricane keeps switching between a Category 2 and 3 storm but a lot can happen between now and this up coming Thursday, when the storm is expect to be in the Gulf of Mexico.  When the storm passes over Cuba it may take some energy out of the storm.  Windsheer or a cold front may push the storm further south, toward texas, or the water temperature may not support the growth of the system.

I want to point out what JetBlue, the low-cost airline, is doing something that hasn’t been seen in the industry in ages – they are waiving fees for individuals affected by the storm.  Not only is it the right thing to do, in my opinion, it’s a nice marketing move as well.

More to come, no doubt.

More and more it is looking like Hurricane Ike will head into the Gulf of Mexico.  From data thus far the storm is really looking like a monster.

Current Storm path models and projected center positions can be found here and here.

Just a few things to think about…

If this does maintain strength, and does hit the Gulf, will the folks in New Orleans and Texas be hitting the road again or will people stay and try to ride it out?

Will nearly all of the oil and natural gas production shut down in preparation, as with Gustav?   Some 25% of oil drilling is still off line because of the last event, if this storm rolls through how will this impact the price of oil?

Are local and federal governments ready to respond to two major storms back to back?

We may know by mid next week…. But in the mean time continue to check out Symonsez for Hurricane coverage – some truly great stuff here.

Here is the current situation as of 10PM central:

• Gustav is no longer a hurricane but a tropical depression
• The levee system is still holding
• Oil prices are dropping quickly

It looks like New Orleans got by without any major storm damage. Keep the people, who are currently without power, in our minds within the next few days.

As you are well aware by, Hurricane Gustav made landfall roughly at 10 AM this morning as a category 2 storm and missed New Orleans but has hammered the state none the less.Roughly 800,000 people are out of power, the levee system is still in place but officials still fear flooding.

While Louisiana is safe, the southeast isn’t out of the woods yet – tropical storm Hanna is expected to hit the east cost at some point this week.

Here is the latest for Hurricane Gustav s of 10 PM central:

• Roughly 2 million people have evacuated the Louisiana coastline
• The storm surge is expected to reach 15 feel in some places
• McCain has canceled all speeches for the first day of the Republican convention
• Current storm position

As if a Hurricane bearing down on New Orleans isn’t bad enough, everyone seems to forget that the Levee system is not yet repaired from Hurricane Katrina.

Hurricane Gustav is still a category 3 storm.  Forecasters now believe the storm will no longer make the jump to a category 4. This does not make the situation any less dangerous. If you will recall, hurricane Katrina was also a category 3 storm.

Here is a quick round up of news coverage for the storm:

• Hurricane winds could hit Louisiana by Monday morning
• New Orleans evacuates for “big, ugly storm”
• Gustav Still a Weak Category 3
• Gustav Shutters Refineries on Gulf Coast
• Gustav gives Nagin a second change to get it right

Hurricane Gustav expected storm path

More to come….

Update – Remember, there are a number of things to be thankful for and it can depend on where you live.

Hurricane Gustav is almost in the center of the Gulf as a category 3 storm.  While it lost some of it kick over night, forecasters are predicting Gustav will grow to a Category 4.

As noted previously, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin has ordered the evacuation of the city and the U.S. government has declared a state of emergency.  In addition, the Texas Governor activated 5,000 members of the National Guard in preparation for a potential disaster and mandatory evacuation for Jefferson and Orange counties are taking place.

From an economic perspective be prepared for gas prices to rise significantly over the next one to three weeks.  This is due to a shutdown or roughly 77% of oil output and 37% of natural gas production in the Gulf.

More to come…

Hurricane Gustav, which was a Category 3 storm just days ago, is showing signs of growth.  As the storm rolled through Cuba it grew to a Category prompting more than 240,000 people to be evacuated.  Experts are already predicting this storm has the potential to rival Hurricane Katrina .  Unlike 2005, government officials are taking proper steps to safeguard the population.

By Friday evening Ray Nagin, Mayor of New Orleans, ordered all vacationers out of the city by nightfall, the Nation Guard is in place to protect property, President Bush has already declared a state of emergency and a fleet of busses are already moving some 30,000 people out of the city for safer ground.  (source 1, source 2)

Hurricane Katrina was a disaster for a number of reasons – the destruction of property, the loss of life, the response of both local and federal government agencies has transformed a historic city into a partial ghost town.  Based on the actions taken by officials it looks like precautions are being made to prevent Katrina Part 2 from occurring.

Do you think someone has learned a lesson?

Update – Current Strom Track