The Weather Research Center, a 22 year old non-profit organization, has released their predictions for the 2009 Hurricane season.  This is interesting news as the Oil production community tends to rely on the WRC’s information to help gauge/predict potential impact on production for the coming year.  Obviously, not an exact science, but still something to pay attention…

So, what does the WRC predict for 2009?

• Number of Named Storms: 7
• Number intensifying into Hurricanes: 4
• Number of Hurricane Days: 7
• Number of Tropical Storm Days: 47
• US Landfalls: 3
• Cat 3 or Higher Storms in the Atlantic: 50%

The WCR suggests the highest risk of landfall for a Tropical Storm or Hurricane is from Louisiana to Alabama with a 70% Chance.  Mighty close to the oil production centers in the Gulf of Mexico.

When Hurricane Ike pushed through the Gulf of Mexico in 2008, the price of oil continued the previously established downward pattern.  Now that oil is range bound from $35 to $45 dollars, and OPEC has cut output drastically, what would happen to the price of oil if a major storm hit production centers in the Gulf?

With Ike hitting the U.S. late Friday night / Early Saturday morning, the news and picture of the aftermath are now coming out.

Initial news reports are indicating the economic damange, mainly due to the fact that oil infrastructure seemed to have been missed, is much less than had been expected.   The major problem facing the areas hit by the storm is the lack of power, roughly 2.6 million customers in Texas and Louisiana are out of power.

Interested in some pictures of the aftermath?  Chron.com has a nice wrap up.

This is worth reading – Melissa Clouthier was Live Blogging her Hurricane experience.

If you are interested in the Hurricane and the impact to oil, check out The Oil Drum. They have data showing what Oil rigs are out of order due to the storm.  Outstanding write-up, great read and a new add to my “must read” list.

More and more it is looking like Hurricane Ike will head into the Gulf of Mexico.  From data thus far the storm is really looking like a monster.

Current Storm path models and projected center positions can be found here and here.

Just a few things to think about…

If this does maintain strength, and does hit the Gulf, will the folks in New Orleans and Texas be hitting the road again or will people stay and try to ride it out?

Will nearly all of the oil and natural gas production shut down in preparation, as with Gustav?   Some 25% of oil drilling is still off line because of the last event, if this storm rolls through how will this impact the price of oil?

Are local and federal governments ready to respond to two major storms back to back?

We may know by mid next week…. But in the mean time continue to check out Symonsez for Hurricane coverage – some truly great stuff here.

Here is the current situation as of 10PM central:

• Gustav is no longer a hurricane but a tropical depression
• The levee system is still holding
• Oil prices are dropping quickly

It looks like New Orleans got by without any major storm damage. Keep the people, who are currently without power, in our minds within the next few days.

Hurricane Gustav is still a category 3 storm.  Forecasters now believe the storm will no longer make the jump to a category 4. This does not make the situation any less dangerous. If you will recall, hurricane Katrina was also a category 3 storm.

Here is a quick round up of news coverage for the storm:

• Hurricane winds could hit Louisiana by Monday morning
• New Orleans evacuates for “big, ugly storm”
• Gustav Still a Weak Category 3
• Gustav Shutters Refineries on Gulf Coast
• Gustav gives Nagin a second change to get it right

Hurricane Gustav expected storm path

More to come….

Update – Remember, there are a number of things to be thankful for and it can depend on where you live.