This is John McCain at this best: John McCain at the Al Smith Dinner (part one / part two).
Make sure you watch both.
What I want to know is where was this man during the rest of the election? This is who the public needs to see….
John McCain ran a poor campaign, plain and simple. Many pundits feel McCain’s efforts were so poor the Bob Dole campaign looked good in comparison. There was hope for Republicans when Sarah Palin joined the ticket but the sudden rock star status turned negative quickly as the press began to hammer her abilities and credentials. After the Republican convention McCain got a bump in number, overtaking Obama for roughly a week, and then the reality of the financial crisis set in. Today, Obama leads McCain by 7 to 9 points.
The party is over, and the McCain camp knows it. Word came out today that the McCain campaign will be discontinuing ads / campaigning in the state of Michigan – a battleground state. If McCain had a chance, would he be pulling back the troops?
Unless there is a drastic change of events, come election day, I suspect Obama will be winning by a wide margin.
There was some concern that the bill was not going to pass the House today and, sure enough, it did not. The Bush Administration, Secretary Paulson, Chairman Bernanke and senior Democratic leadership all supported the bill but the majority of Republicans did not. As a result, the bill appears to be dead in the water.
The DOW was down roughly 700 points after the bill was defeated but this bill is not about the Stock Market, it’s about the credit markets. This bill was designed, fundamentally, to help open up the credit markets. If one looks as at the current Government Bond rates the 3 month yield is at less than one percent - that is to say there is NO MONEY AVAILABLE.
This crisis is about credit, plain and simple. Without credit business cannot spend and growth will stall - if not decrease. Personal credit will dry up and households will not be able to make large purchases such as cars, washers and home improvements. Students may not be able to get loans for college…. and it can go on and on.
What I am not seeing here is leadership on the Republican House side. Where are the leaders making their case as to why they are not passing the bill and what the course of action is? Where is the Republican House leadership and why can they not deliver the votes they need?
For the very, very first time I am truly worried about the financial situation in the United States.
UPDATE: Voting Record
Care to see the AYES/NOES on the bill, you can check it out here.
UPDATE 2
You have to be kidding me - Republican Leadership is blaming Speaker Pelosi for being bipartisan as to why the bill failed. Supposedly she was too negative.
Yes, she hammered the Bush Administration - and I do not agree with what she had stated - but how petty is that if that is truly the case.
Here is the speech (in RealMedia format)
Here is another version - flash player based
So the general feeling is Republicans did not vote due to the fact that she was hammering the current administration. Again, I don’t agree with what she has stated but this is a time to put politics aside and get the deal done.
UPDATE 3
John McCain is shooting back at Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Both sides, no matter what is said, need to wake up.
UPDATE 4
To play politics for a second - the Democrats have the majority in the House of Representatives and could pass the Bill on their own if they truly wanted to. If that is the case, how come this failed because of the Republicans?
As the United States quickly moves toward the Presidential Elections many people are waiting for an “October Surprise” – an event that will drastically change the election in favor of one candidate. The major event influencing the race today is the financial bailout currently working its way through Congress. Without a doubt the economic turmoil has favored Barack Obama, showing his lead in the polls growing as the uncertainty continues to grow, but will there be another event to swing the momentum in favor of McCain?
Maybe an Israeli attack on Iran?
Earlier in the year Israel apparently asked the United States for permission to attack Iranian nuclear facilities but was denied by the Bush administration. As Iran progresses with the nuclear program Israel feels, more and more, their very existence is threatened. As a result, the Israeli government will do what they feel is best for their safety – attack Iran.
Will they do so before the election? Is so, will this be the “October Surprise” that swings the favor to McCain or will the US public move even closer to Obama?
MCCAIN SUSPENDS CAMPAIGN TO FOCUS ON ECONOMY; WANTS DEBATE DELAY
MCCAIN: America this week faces an historic crisis in our financial system. We must pass legislation to address this crisis. If we do not, credit will dry up, with devastating consequences for our economy. People will no longer be able to buy homes and their life savings will be at stake. Businesses will not have enough money to pay their employees. If we do not act, ever corner of our country will be impacted. We cannot allow this to happen.
Last Friday, I laid out my proposal and I have since discussed my priorities and concerns with the bill the Administration has put forward. Senator Obama has expressed his priorities and concerns.This morning, I met with a group of economic advisers to talk about the proposal on the table and the steps that we should take going forward.I have also spoken with members of Congress to hear their perspective.
It has become clear that no consensus has developed to support the Administration’ proposal. I do not believe that the plan on the table will pass as it currently stands, and we are running out of time.
Tomorrow morning, I will suspend my campaign and return to Washington after speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative. I have spoken to Senator Obama and informed him of my decision and have asked him to join me.
I am calling on the President to convene a meeting with the leadership from both houses of Congress, including Senator Obama and myself. It is time for both parties to come together to solve this problem.
We must meet as Americans, not as Democrats or Republicans, and we must meet until this crisis is resolved.I am directing my campaign to work with the Obama campaign and the commission on presidential debates to delay Friday night’s debate until we have taken action to address this crisis.
I am confident that before the markets open on Monday we can achieve consensus on legislation that will stabilize our financial markets, protect taxpayers and homeowners, and earn the confidence of the American people. All we must do to achieve this is temporarily set politics aside, and I am committed to doing so.
Following September 11th, our national leaders came together at a time of crisis. We must show that kind of patriotism now. Americans across our country lament the fact that partisan divisions in Washington have prevented us from addressing our national challenges. Now is our chance to come together to prove that Washington is once again capable of leading this country.
–
Put the politics aside, come together as Americans and solve the problem. That is leadership.
There are a number of things that are being said in the news / press / world of blogs that I need to be addressed.
The Stock Market is not the economy
Without a doubt, the stock market is wild right now. The press gets excited when the wild swing and destruction of capital takes place, but it has happened a number of times in the past – it’s all part of capitalism. It happened in 2001, in 1990, 1987, early 80s… and on and on and on.
Corporate scandals, poor business practices, and just plain dumb luck will lead to situations like this all the time. Currently, the financial industry is in disarray but this does not equate to an overall bad economy. While economic growth is not historic highs it is also not contracting. As of now, the United States is not, officially, in a recession.
The collapse of AIG, et al., is not a giant conspiracy
I want to know if people are still taking their medication. More and more there are stories / commentaries that the bailout of AIG is due to the company being a front for the government or that we are heading into a financial dictatorship.
The reason AIG was given what amounts to a structured bankruptcy is quite simply. Their debt, the bonds they offered, was considered to be some of the highest-grade investment vehicles on the market. Just about every major company in the WORLD owns said bonds and if the assets suddenly became worthless, the potential for failures of companies worldwide was very real.
The $700 Billion dollar rescue is the right thing
The creation of a Resolution Trust is the right thing to do and creates a bottom for the mortgage industry – the mortgages are now set with a value established by asset managers, backed by the government, and create a tradable security for the investment market. Furthermore, as the real estate market improves the government will be sitting on A HUGE asset bank that goes right back into the treasury.
This is all caused by poor regulation, greed and policy
Yes, policy created this current situation, but it wasn’t Bush policy – it was Clinton policy. President Clinton pushed extensive changes allowing lenders to distribute and fill “questionable” loans, his legislation – essentially – allowed the sub-prime mortgage industry to start.
In 2002, Ron Paul called for change due to the financial risk, in 2003 President Bush recommended a regulatory overall to prevent a collapse and in 2005 John McCain warned of a financial collapse but NO one acted.
Who failed to act? Congress.
Bankers utilized the “loose” regulation and got greedy. They started to issue loans to individuals who could not afford their loans and, next thing you know, boom there is a crash.
This is life…
The stock market, the economy and life are full of ups and downs. What the government is doing right now is attempting to provide stability to the financial and credit markets, and as the economy as a whole. Is it what I want to see in a free market society, no? Is it the right thing to do, yes.
I have a big problem when someone tells me how to live my life. The majority of my time on this world I’ve spent creating an environment that allows me the flexibility to make decisions on my future with minimal input from the outside world. While I know I do not live on the proverbial desert island, I will always have outside influences, I want to decide what is best for me – not have someone else do it for me. That is why this story on the election, and Obama, gets me:
All 22 countries covered in the poll would prefer to see Senator Obama elected US president ahead of Republican John McCain. In 17 of the 22 nations, people expect relations between the US and the rest of the world to improve if Senator Obama wins… “Large numbers of people around the world clearly like what Barack Obama represents,” GlobeScan chairman Doug Miller said.
Two things strike me right away:
From what I’ve read in the press, and from Obama’s website, his positions are rather liberal, borderline socialist, to me. I don’t mean that in a “darn those liberals” sense but helping free services for everyone and raising taxes sense.
If you look at other the political landscape of countries most are extensively more liberal than the United States. A large number of countries believe in large social aide programs, universal / near universal health care, significant gun control and simply giving to their people simply for the sake that they are citizens. My guess that is exactly why other countries like Obama – they see in him what they have in their government. So, when I see an article like this I can almost hear the world saying “Look, he’s like us – you should take him so you are like us.”
For better or worse the United States has made its way on its own terms. Sometimes the world loves what we’ve done, others not so much. The thing is I wouldn’t have it any other way. Simply because one is used to a liberal government doesn’t mean it would work for the U.S.
9/10/08 Update:
Guardian.co.uk - The world’s verdict will be harsh if the US rejects the man it yearns for
FTA:
If Americans choose McCain, they will be turning their back on the rest of the world, choosing to show us four more years of the Bush-Cheney finger. And I predict a deeply unpleasant shift…If Americans reject Obama, they will be sending the clearest possible message to the rest of us - and, make no mistake, we shall hear it.
This statement is akin to saying electing Obama is like having a second Kennedy administration. Two different people standing up for what they believe in. All Democrats are not the same, all Republicans are not the same. Yes, McCain is a Republican but not a Bush disciple. There is a clear history showing how Bush / McCain do not get along.
It sure seems as if the world is trying to tell us what to do… Don’t elect McCain or else (and I picture someone waving a finger at us as if we are a kid who just got caught with their hand in a cookie jar). I have questions about McCain, but even more about Obama. My desire to see McCain in office grows more and more every day - seeing articles like this in the press only helps it grow.
Without a doubt, polls can be utter crap – we pointed that out yesterday. Sure they show McCain in the lead but that really doesn’t mean anything at this point. What is hard to dispute is cash.
According to this CBS article, McCain pulled in $5 Million dollars in 5 hours. That is one heck of an accomplishment for a guy who was having problems rising any funding almost three months ago. What is even more interesting is the money was raised in Barack Obama’s backyard – Chicago. I am not suggesting McCain has a chance in Illinois but such successful fundraising effort in the largely Democratic Chicago is very impressive.
If cash is a barometer take a look at Obama. Reports are coming out that he is having a hard time reaching his fund raising goals. The trend appears to have started in June. Is this a sign that his support is starting to wane for the Senator or simply the up and down of a political campaign?
In business it is often suggested that if one wants to understand why and event is happening, if one wants to get a general sense of where things are headed, the prudent thing to do is follow the money. I believe the same is true in politics.
Others say…
Rightvoices wonders if Obama is running out of fund raising options
Hotair does a breakdown of some numbers
Swamppolitics - McCain-backers say fundraising has ‘taken on a life of its own’ with Palin
Let me be very blunt about polling and surveys before I continue on. Penn and Teller did an outstanding job showing how polling can often be just pure Bullsh*t. A pollster can structure a question in order to obtain the answer they, or the person who hired them, are looking for. When a firm such as Zogby or Gallup conducts presidential polling; however, the question usually is usually not leading to a specific answer and unbiased. That said, let’s look at the current polling information.
USAToday: McCain 50% / Obama 46%
Gallup: McCain 49% / Obama 44%
Zogby: McCain 49.7% / Obama 45.9%
Realclearpolitics Avergage: McCain 48.3% / Obama 45.4%
A number of things are, most likely, reflective in this data. The Obama DNC bounce has faded back to previous level, the RNC convention gave McCain his post election bounce, and Sarah Palin has taken over the national spotlight. There are a number undercurrents that could also be included, but that would be pure speculation.
Both campaigns need to face the reality that they are running into the home stretch of the election. With some 50 odd days left the polls will continue to swing unless one of the campaigns makes a huge error. If an egregious, publicly embarrassing event is committed by either candidate you can bet the polls will swing away from them and stay away, thus causing them a loss.
Much like the Sarah Palin speech, Republicans need to keep their focus. Yes, it’s nice to be “up” in the polls but with 57 days left it is meaningless. Do NOT become overconfident.
Other Reactions:
Hot Air - Gallup: McCain 48, Obama 45 — outside the margin of error
Hennessy’s View - McCain Lead Outside Margin of Error
AlphaPatriot - Dems are the New “Status Quo”
Guntotingliberal - John McCain Flip-Flops Again, This Time By Enjoying The Sarah Palin “Barracuda Bump”
internet scofflaw - McCain Leads
Rightvoices.com - MCCAIN TAKES 10-POINT LEAD OVER OBAMA IN LIKELY VOTERS…Good News: There Is A Convention Bounce Gallup Has McCain Up 48% to 45% Over Obama
Blue Crab Boulevard - Tea Leaves and Caution
Scared Monkeys - Panic time for Obama
Last night, for the first time in almost a year, I was excited about your campaign. Your running mate did an outstanding job introducing herself to the public, showing what the future of Republican politics could be. That single speech did more for your campaign than you did (aside from picking her) and there was no way you could outperformed her, she did set the bar very high, but what happened?
No, seriously, what happen?
At times you seemed very comfortable and not the John McCain I’ve seen in the past. Was it the protesters who interrupted your speech? I thought you did an outstanding job of handling a situation that could have been very uncomfortable. Was the crowd that applauded at random times – times you didn’t expect? I could see how that would throw one off, but still… what happened?
I don’t mean to take credit away from your performance; after all you did get your main message points across - you will fight for the people, the Republican party has gone to far the its values, Obama has no way to pay for his programs – but I am worried about the perception.
Sarah was dynamic, you were not. Sarah was engaging, you were not. Sarah made people feel as if she was one of them; you came close but didn’t totally sell it. What Sarah has, that appeal, is also what Obama has and is what you will need to face in the upcoming debates.
Maybe you will be quite comfortable in a one-on-one setting, with out the teleprompter. Maybe this is where you will shine. I am worried; however, that you are going to be perceived as, well, old and disconnected.
You have a lot of political capital thanks to your running mate, the race is much more complex than it was two weeks ago, and you have a fighting chance. Don’t waste your ace in the hole by becoming what people expect you to be – disconnected.