Yesterday I wondered why China was speaking out on Iran and “diplomatic” efforts. My thought was related to oil, and I believe that plays a large factor as China is looking to Iran to meet their energy needs, but it may also be due to China providing nuke-tech to Iran.

Something I had not considered.

From the Guardian:

A Taiwanese company agreed to a request from a firm in China to procure sensitive components with nuclear uses, then shipped them to Iran, the firm’s head said Friday. Such transactions violate U.N. sanctions imposed on the Middle Eastern nation.

In a telephone interview with The Associated Press, Lin said he received an Internet order from a Chinese firm in January or February 2008 to obtain an unspecified number of pressure transducers, which convert pressure into analog electrical signals.

While pressure transducers have many commercial uses, they furnish the precise measurements needed in the production of weapons-grade uranium.

While the company who sent the technology wasn’t based it China (Taiwan) the order came from an Chinese firm. 

Kinda reminds you of Germany and France putting up resistance to the Iraq war. Oh, maybe because Germany was heavily involved with weapon sales to Iraq and the French had ties to nuke technology.

The Iranian nuclear game of poker continues to ebb and flow.  One side makes a vague political threat, the other decides to show their military power by having some ill planned war games.  Back and forth, back and forth goes the ball…

I tend to take notice when the back and forth nature of the situation changes. When something that, on first glance, doesn’t fit into the picture seemingly just pops up with no warning is usually a signal of changing undercurrent that the general public is unaware of. Today saw such a hint come into the public vision – China urges diplomacy instead of sanctions with regards to Iran.

The two major players in the political arena that had ’supported’ the Iranian position were Russia and China, mainly due to their involvement Iran’s energy sector. Russia, however, backed away from their hard line position last fall leaving only China holding up additional sanctions against Iran.

Why did Russia back away? Because the United States magically removed the missile shield from Poland.  Surprise how things like that work.

Why is China the only one still supporting the political process with Iran?  Easy – follow the money, and the money points to one thing.  Oil.

From the Washington Post:

Iran is China’s second-biggest supplier of oil, and imports are rising. In a country where more people are expected to buy cars this year than in the United States, China’s appetite for oil is unquenchable.

China’s investments in Iran also lessen the likelihood that Beijing will support enhanced sanctions. China’s state-run oil behemoths have committed so much money to Iran — an estimated $120 billion over the past five years.

To see China make a public statement makes me think the U.S. is going to make a push for sanctions sooner rather than later. Will they be successful remains to be seen.

Really, Iran?  I mean, really?

Shirin Ebadi is an Iranian lawyer and human rights activist who won the 2003 Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts in spreading democracy and supporting human rights efforts.  In 2010 she was the Nobel Peace Prize winner that had her medal taken away from her by Iranian authorities because Shirin Edabi is, apparently, dissenter of the Iranian Government.

Not only that, the Iranian government has frozen her bank accounts. The government is claiming she owes 410,000 in back taxes.

At a time when Iran should be trying to show the world they want to be a member of the world community the leadership goes and does something like this. Truly amazing.  I guess one should never underestimate stupidity.

The Flu, Swine Flu and the Ukraine

During a normal flu season roughly 5% to 20% of the U.S. population will get the flu (all strains covered). If one take the “worst case” numbers 20% will translate to about 68M people.  When the CDC states that about 22M people in the U.S. have had the swine from April of 09 to October of 09 that may seem like big number but, really, it is in line what what the CDC expects in a normal flu season anyway…  And that is what I love about stats.

People like to use numbers to prove points/win arguments because the majority of the listening audience does not question the data.  Sorry to say it but there is a serious lack of critical thinking which lead does not lead to “Well, how is this different than any year?”

I’ve said it a number of times, and unless I see a set a drastic events, I will continue to say the Swine Flu is nowhere as bad as the media is making it out to be.

Another example of this may be the reaction in the Ukraine.

In a sudden fury of activity the Ukrainian government began voicing concern about national security, closing down schools nation wide, and quarantining hospitals because of a sudden rise in swine flu.  According to Ukrainian government stats, 1,192,481 people have the swine flu within the country of roughly 46 million people.

Put in another way – roughly 4.1% of their population. While I do not have average number of flu cases within the Ukraine 4% seems rather low all things considered.

Initially the outbreak was called an “unknown disease” but has since been identified as the swine flu.  Sure, facing something that has never been identified could explain the concern about national security and establishing quarantines… but, again, 4% seems rather low.

Is gold running out?

The supply of gold on the Earth is finite.  No new supplies will be created.  So, it is interesting to hear the CEO of Barrick Gold – the largest gold mining company – say the company is stopping their hedging practice.

Quick reminder: Hedging is used by companies to protect themselves from price volatility, usually buying/selling contracts of goods at a set price.

Example: I think the price of oil is going to rise in the future so I buy oil options for 4 years out at the current price ($77).  Let’s say the price of oil doubles ($144) I will only have to pay my option price ($77).  Alternatively, if the price drops over that time period I will have lost the difference between what I paid and the price at the time the option expires.

So what would cause Barrick to stop the practice of selling hedges?  There is only one answer that would fit under the current market conditions, they believe they only direction the price of gold is heading is upward.

Chicago Bears…

Yea, they suck.  Just needed to get that out there.  Sure the defense is playing as if they are a different team from last Sunday, now Jay Cutler is sucking ass and sucking hard.

Really guys, what’s up?

The Alavi Foundation

I was very surprised to see in the news that the U.S. is trying to confiscate the holdings of the Alavi Foundation.  First off, I’ve never head of the Alavi Foundation, but the U.S. claims this group is a front for the Iranian Government. Second, I’m surprised because – to the best of my knowledge – there wasn’t much, if any, word the group showing up in the press previous to this event.

Making the assumption the Alavi Foundation is a front for the Iranian Government, why is action being take at this time?  What is the cause/motivation for action? Is this a warning to the Iranian government because of their actions with regards to the nuke program?

Time to start putting the pieces together…

Lou Dobbs leaves CNN

In what came as a surprise for a number of people, Lou Dobbs is leaving CNN.  Except for a short period of time spent at space.com Dobbs was with the network since it was founded. Weird, no?

Anyone have a guess as to why he is leaving.  I’m sure there are odds in Vegas on this, but I’m going with Lou Dobbs may be considering a run for some political position.

Yes, call me nuts, but look at what he said in his speech:

And as for the important work of restoring inspiration to our great free society and our market economy, I will strive as well to be a leader in that national conversation

If that doesn’t sound like someone who is about to make a run, I don’t know what does.  I mean, for crying out loud, he had a huge picture of the American flag behind him! Yes, time will tell, but as I am a betting man this is where I would put my money.

If you happened to be focused on other things yesterday, say like the House passing health care legislation late on a Saturday night, you may have missed a semi-important story about the Iranian nuke saga.

Over the last several months the press, several governments, and pundits world wide have given Iran a lot of attention.  Specifically, what is the true intent of the nuclear program current underway.  Is it for energy, as Iran would have the world believe, or for something a bit more questionable?

World leaders gave Iran the  benefit of the doubt – or the appearance of the benefit of the doubt – and offered a solution to the country.  The basis such belief was this: If the Iranian government was truly interested in producing nuclear energy, let Russia enrich nuclear fuel rod for that purpose.

Iran gave an initial “yes” but that didn’t last for long.

“Iran is not to give any of its 1,200 kilograms (of) fuel to the other party to receive 20 percent (enriched) fuel and whether gradually or at once, this will not be done and is called off,” Boroujerdi reportedly told ISNA.

I fully believe Iranian government wants nuclear weapons – if they don’t have them already. This isn’t to “wipe Israel off the map” as the Iranian leadership has suggested, but to remove any government in the mid-east that does not share the same religious values the of the Iranian government; however, I also feel like there is a mild march to way that is being pushed by a number of world powers.

Over and over Iran has shown to the world they will not honor deals brokered by the UN, Russia or any other government.  They will act in the manner that best fits their wants and desires.  This only gives others (Israel and the US) the ability to push for war…  the balanced dance of mid-east politics may come to an explosive end if clear  minds do not prevail.

Unemployment

Unemployment hit and blew through the 10% barrier; the U.S. is now “officially” at 10.2%.  If one uses the broadest government indicator of unemployment the number comes in at roughly 17.8% but if one removes the government birth/death numbers (and other assumptions) unemployment actually is reported around 22.1%.

The reason for the roughly jump from 9.8% to 10.2% is being pinned non-farm payroll decline of roughly 190,000 individuals.  The forecasted loss was 175,000.

In December of last year I stated my belief that unemployment would be at 10% by the end of 2009.  That said, the fact that the U.S. hit 10.2% in October – not November or December – is a bit of a surprise for me.

With the dollar decline/gold rise, Capmark/CIT bankruptcies, and earnings events now in recent memory, I can sit down and write why I believe the U.S. is facing potential hard economic times in 2010. Expect that post this weekend…

UN’s ElBaradei say Inspectors found nothing to worry about in Iran

I have serious doubts about this comment:

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief says that UN inspectors have found “nothing to be worried about” in Iran’s latest nuclear facility.

There are three reasons as to why I hold a bit of skepticism:

1. ElBaradei has been shown to alter information that would favor Iran. It is very clear that he can no longer be considered a neutral party.
2. Because the UN states this location is not a concern does not clear other Iranian facilities
3. The UN is demanding Iran explain evidence suggesting that Iranian scientists have experimented with an advanced secret nuclear warhead design

So does any of this make sense?

I truly want to know how ElBaradei has the audacity to comment to the world that Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons when his own organization possesses evidence Iranian scientists are moving in that direction.

There is no clear status indicator for the Iranian Nuclear program but it does not take an individual with a Ph D to see what the true intent of Iran is, does it?

Gold hits a new high

I semi-mentioned this above, and I will go into detail this weekend, but gold has established a new record price.

For a quick moment gold touched $1,101.90 per ounce.  What does this mean?  How does this impact the world? What is the driving force for such a movement?  I’ll give my thoughts this weekend.

I love the internet.  In a single day people can get more information than what was available to people in a lifetime roughly thirty years ago, let alone 300 years ago.  Sure, that can lead to information overload if one is not careful; however, that also creates a situation where everyone can have access to news the mainstream press doesn’t seem to report on… like this: Israel seizes ship in Mediterranean carrying more than 3,000 rockets

More than 3,000 rockets were apparently being smuggled aboard the ship Francop, which was captured in the Mediterranean Sea by Israel Navy missile boats and naval commandos late Tuesday night in an operation dubbed Operation Four Species.

So where were the rockets heading?  It sounds like the end destination was Lebanon. The scary part of this story is the unspoken.  Just think about how many ships actually make it – to any port of call – that have items that can be used as weapons.

U.S. Politics

New Jersey, Virginia, and New York had elections for state governors yesterday. What is so special about this race?  Not much and everything.

In NJ and VA the Democrats lost the governor seats to Republican candidates.  NJ is a historically Democrat state and VA went to the Democrats in both the Presidential and Congress races.  This situation is causing political pundits to warn the current political climate is hostile to Democratic candidates in the 2010 mid-term elections.

Unlike some, I would not say that the results from yesterday were not referendums on President Obama and the Democrats as they were on the health-care debate.  That has really been the focus of the general public for the last several months.  One could make the case the health-care debate may carry forward and take down other Democrat candidates, but so many other things can between now and then as well.

However, what last night does show is the argument “Blame Bush” is no longer effective.  Both of the Democrats had a healthy does of Bush bashing and suffered because of it.  As the political defense of the last year has taken that approach, yesterday should serve as warning for political strategists to find another approach.

There are some that manage to have a positive view of what took place yesterday (why, I’m really not sure).

Turkey (the country, not the food)

Turkish Prime Minister, Tayyip Erdogan, gave a clear sign to the world as to where Turkey comes in on the Israeli belief that Iran should not have nuclear weapons.

“… those who criticize Iran’s nuclear program continue to possess the same weapons,” said Erdogan, according to an advance copy, carried by state-run Anatolian news agency, of a televised address he was scheduled to make at 8 p.m.

“I think that those who take this stance, who want these arrogant sanctions, need to first give these [weapons] up. We shared this opinion with our Iranian friends, our brothers.”

If there comes a time where Israel takes a military approach to Iran it is clear Turkey will not support such an event.  What will be interesting to watch is what will Turkey do when it comes down to oil pricing.  Will they support the Dollar? They Euro? A basket?

Pot (the drug, not the cooking type)

It’s about time a community stood up and took a stand – Breckenridge, Colorado legalized marijuana and marijuana paraphernalia.

Breckenridge voters passed Measure 2F, which removes criminal penalties from the town code for the private possession of up to one ounce of marijuana by adults 21 and older. The ordinance also removes criminal penalties for the possession of bongs, pipes and other drug paraphernalia.

It was an avalanche “yes” vote, passing 73 percent to 27 percent.

I have never once used Marijuana in my life. Ever. That said, I firmly believe that we cannot truly say we live in a free country if people cannot put whatever they want in their bodies.

Gay Love (not the good kind)

Much like I don’t feel we should be told what we can/cannot do with our bodies, I think it is morally unjustified for one to tell another who they can/cannot be wed to.  Unfortunately, that is once again what happened in the state of Maine yesterday as voters repealed they states gay marriage law.

Democracy has both positives and negatives, no?

And a cute cartoon (really, just a cute cartoon)

And let us end the day on a really cute add for the Belgian public transport company De Lijn.

Really, how cute was that!

It seems that UN inspectors did visit the ‘new’ Iranian nuke plants, and did so without any problem.

“IAEA inspectors today visited the… nuclear installation,” the semi-official Mehr news agency said, referring to International Atomic Energy Agency staff. “The IAEA inspectors arrived Saturday night and are scheduled to inspect the… site several times. The inspectors will leave Tehran Tuesday.”

As Iran “missed” the last nuke deadline, it is good to see the inspection by the UN did not turn into a circus.

Did you really expect any other outcome here?

Iran’s government said tonight that it saw a UN-brokered deal to export much of its enriched uranium “in a favourable light”, but asked for a few days’ extension of a UN deadline to make up its mind.

Under the deal, Iran’s stockpile would be reduced by three-quarters, potentially defusing a crisis in the Gulf. The deal had been agreed in principle by Iranian negotiators earlier this month, but Western observers said the delay in its confirmation reflected disputes and indecision at the top of the government in Tehran.

Diplomats said that Iran had also withdrawn from another commitment to hold talks next week on its enrichment programme, leaving the Obama strategy of engagement up in the air.

Iran’s state-run TV channel quoted Ali Asghar Soltanieh, ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna, as saying his government looked on the deal favourably but would give its final response next week.

Inspectors are expected at Iranian nuke sites on 10/25, how do you think that is going to turn out?  I’d be very nervous if I was on the team that needed to visit…

Here are a few things in the news that caught my eye over the last 24 hours:

• October surprise from bank earnings? Some experts worry results may be much more negative than investors expect

Bank stocks surged during the third quarter, but as companies prepare to report results from the period, several industry experts remain concerned.

• Toxic commercial loans plague small banks

Toxic commercial real estate assets held by small U.S. banks are threatening their survival and the broader economy, analysts say.

• Israel, US to simulate response to war

Israel and the United States, amid growing tensions with Iran, will simulate interoperability between missile defense systems this week during the biennial Juniper Cobra missile defense exercise.

With the market going into earnings season, it will be interesting to see how things play out.