The Weather Research Center, a 22 year old non-profit organization, has released their predictions for the 2009 Hurricane season.  This is interesting news as the Oil production community tends to rely on the WRC’s information to help gauge/predict potential impact on production for the coming year.  Obviously, not an exact science, but still something to pay attention…

So, what does the WRC predict for 2009?

• Number of Named Storms: 7
• Number intensifying into Hurricanes: 4
• Number of Hurricane Days: 7
• Number of Tropical Storm Days: 47
• US Landfalls: 3
• Cat 3 or Higher Storms in the Atlantic: 50%

The WCR suggests the highest risk of landfall for a Tropical Storm or Hurricane is from Louisiana to Alabama with a 70% Chance.  Mighty close to the oil production centers in the Gulf of Mexico.

When Hurricane Ike pushed through the Gulf of Mexico in 2008, the price of oil continued the previously established downward pattern.  Now that oil is range bound from $35 to $45 dollars, and OPEC has cut output drastically, what would happen to the price of oil if a major storm hit production centers in the Gulf?

Now that Gustav is a mere after thought, actually a major low-pressure system in the central United States that is expected to dump two to six inches of rain in some places, East Coast residents turn their attention to Hurricanes Hanna and Ike.

Actually, Hanna has turned back to a tropical storm and continuing to hop around the Bahamas like a drug mule picking up packages before they head back to the Atlanta airport. The big story is how much punch Hurricane Ike is packing. The sustained wind speeds of Ike are currently at roughly 115 miles per hour and the present storm course of the hurricane is heading west-northwest.

Here is my big concern – Hurricane Gustav was a dud in New Orleans as compared to Katrina. Yes, it caused damage in the Gulf, yes there was major flooding, but the nation didn’t witness (thank god) the devastation that was seen back in 2005.

Will all the people who evacuated Louisiana think they could ride out the next major storm thinking, chances are, nothing will happen? Will the relative “false alarms” cause the masses to become complacent? If so, another Katrina is possible.

Just remember, the collective memory is very short…

Update: Symonsez has outstanding hurricane coverage.

Here is the current situation as of 10PM central:

• Gustav is no longer a hurricane but a tropical depression
• The levee system is still holding
• Oil prices are dropping quickly

It looks like New Orleans got by without any major storm damage. Keep the people, who are currently without power, in our minds within the next few days.

As you are well aware by, Hurricane Gustav made landfall roughly at 10 AM this morning as a category 2 storm and missed New Orleans but has hammered the state none the less.Roughly 800,000 people are out of power, the levee system is still in place but officials still fear flooding.

While Louisiana is safe, the southeast isn’t out of the woods yet – tropical storm Hanna is expected to hit the east cost at some point this week.

Here is the latest for Hurricane Gustav s of 10 PM central:

• Roughly 2 million people have evacuated the Louisiana coastline
• The storm surge is expected to reach 15 feel in some places
• McCain has canceled all speeches for the first day of the Republican convention
• Current storm position

As if a Hurricane bearing down on New Orleans isn’t bad enough, everyone seems to forget that the Levee system is not yet repaired from Hurricane Katrina.

Hurricane Gustav is still a category 3 storm.  Forecasters now believe the storm will no longer make the jump to a category 4. This does not make the situation any less dangerous. If you will recall, hurricane Katrina was also a category 3 storm.

Here is a quick round up of news coverage for the storm:

• Hurricane winds could hit Louisiana by Monday morning
• New Orleans evacuates for “big, ugly storm”
• Gustav Still a Weak Category 3
• Gustav Shutters Refineries on Gulf Coast
• Gustav gives Nagin a second change to get it right

Hurricane Gustav expected storm path

More to come….

Update – Remember, there are a number of things to be thankful for and it can depend on where you live.

Hurricane Gustav, which was a Category 3 storm just days ago, is showing signs of growth.  As the storm rolled through Cuba it grew to a Category prompting more than 240,000 people to be evacuated.  Experts are already predicting this storm has the potential to rival Hurricane Katrina .  Unlike 2005, government officials are taking proper steps to safeguard the population.

By Friday evening Ray Nagin, Mayor of New Orleans, ordered all vacationers out of the city by nightfall, the Nation Guard is in place to protect property, President Bush has already declared a state of emergency and a fleet of busses are already moving some 30,000 people out of the city for safer ground.  (source 1, source 2)

Hurricane Katrina was a disaster for a number of reasons – the destruction of property, the loss of life, the response of both local and federal government agencies has transformed a historic city into a partial ghost town.  Based on the actions taken by officials it looks like precautions are being made to prevent Katrina Part 2 from occurring.

Do you think someone has learned a lesson?

Update – Current Strom Track