Sep
13
Posted (Van Santos) in News on September-13-2008

With Ike hitting the U.S. late Friday night / Early Saturday morning, the news and picture of the aftermath are now coming out.

Initial news reports are indicating the economic damange, mainly due to the fact that oil infrastructure seemed to have been missed, is much less than had been expected.   The major problem facing the areas hit by the storm is the lack of power, roughly 2.6 million customers in Texas and Louisiana are out of power.

Interested in some pictures of the aftermath?  Chron.com has a nice wrap up.

This is worth reading – Melissa Clouthier was Live Blogging her Hurricane experience.

If you are interested in the Hurricane and the impact to oil, check out The Oil Drum. They have data showing what Oil rigs are out of order due to the storm.  Outstanding write-up, great read and a new add to my “must read” list.



 
Sep
12
Posted (Van Santos) in Weather on September-12-2008

If you’ve ever wanted to feel small, just take a look at this:

Hurricane Ike over Cuba

Hurricane Ike over Cuba

This is a picture that NASA took as Ike passed over Cuba. Now realize that the storm has doubled in size since this picture was taken. Amazing. Simply amazing.

The storm looks to be on track to his Houston at some point this evening. With nearly a million people moving out of Ike’s path, gas prices on the rise due refinery shut downs, and 15 foot storm surge expected, this will be a wild weekend for some in Texas.

Here is the current model…

Others talking about the storm:

Hurricane Ike Resources
Jonny Torres – Ike video coming ashore
Diary of a Mad Poker Player – Hurricane Ike
Symonsez – Hurricane Ike Not Intense But Has Serious Muscle



 
Sep
08
Posted (Van Santos) in Business, Weather on September-8-2008

First the good news – models suggest New Orleans looks to miss the brunt of Hurricane Ike.

The bad new – compare the storm track above with the Gulf Coast Oil platforms and you’ll see the production area is on the east side of the storm, not a good area to be. I’m surprised oil prices managed to stay below $110 with the storm on the way. Maybe the oil bubble is over, maybe the market really doesn’t think this will hurt production…

The really bad news – Houston could be the new target of the storm.



 
Sep
08
Posted (Van Santos) in Weather on September-8-2008

Ike slammed into the Bahamas causing serious damage, hurt the relief efforts already underway in already suffering Haiti, and just went ashore in Cuba roughly an hour ago.  The storm is now a Category 3 Hurricane, down froma 4, and is expected to come in to the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday or Wednesday.

The current storm track can be found here and here.  Storm models show Ike drifting east or west of New Orleans, which can give the city a break but can mean trouble for Houston, Mississippi or Alabama.

Something to keep in mind: the price of oil.  NYMEX Crude and Nymex Henry Hub Futures (Natural Gas) are both up 2.26 and 3.0% respectively.  If the storm causes a shutdown of oil / gas production and OPEC cuts oil output expect the prices to rise.

Update: Oil Price Coverage

Hurricane Ike is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico as a severe Category 4 storm, a U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency official said on Sunday. It may threaten Gulf energy rigs that account for a quarter of U.S. oil output and 15 percent of natural gas production.

With nearly 88 percent of crude-oil and 74 percent of natural-gas output shut due to Hurricane Gustav, it is easy to see how Ike could shut down all production once again.