In November of 2008 I had issues with some predictions of Gerald Celente.  In short, I thought his predictions were rather general and could claimed be as a “success”. While 2012 is far off his original predictions haven’t come to pass (yet).

Well, he is back with some very specific predictions for 2010:

For this year he is calling for:
- 9/11 size attacks
- Israel may attack Iran
- An economic crash in 2010 (when the stimulus money runs out)
- An elegance trend (pride in yourself)
- A not welcome here trend (when jobs dry up people start to target illegals)

With such specific predictions it will be easy to measure his success. In this crop I do think he is on target with the Economic crash. The terror attacks and Israel/Iran issue are constant topics, and could happen at any time. The elegance trend is an interesting concept but seems counter to an economic collapse, and the ‘not welcome here’ could fit into economic hardship.

With the article on my original issues with Celente’s predictions I also make a few predictions of my own:

- If humanity continues manned spaced exploration they will suffer shocking and unexpected losses due to technical error
- Every day items, such as phone / laptops / media devices, will continue to become smaller in order to provide convenience to users of the devices
- The earth will be subjected to numerous shifts in climate temperature
- European economies may suffer due to a lack of qualified younger individuals (specifically in Italy and German) to fill roles within the workforce
- I predict that if Celente is right I will admit it but if my predictions are more accurate, no one will come knocking on my door to predict the future

Thus far I’m batting 80% (no shocking and unexpected losses due to technical errors in space travel), however, what I find very interesting with his 2010 predictions is that things seem much more… well… realistic to his past prediction.

While I only started blogging once again in August, I’ve had a number of posts that I am very, very proud of. SixUntilMe did a year end round up and I thought, you know, that is a great idea.

Here are the posts I am most proud of – by month.

August – e*trade Bank – Think Long and hard before you use them

September – When did obesity become an epedemic?

October – America the beautiful

November (4) - It’s not about you, Thought experiment – Let’s say Gerald Celente is right, I will miss him, The “Right and Wrong” Paradox

December (3) - Thinking about the happiest time in my life, Why do we feel this way, I have a problem with this “reporting” from the AP

Thanks for joining me on this journey…

About a month ago, right after the predictions of Gerald Celente came out, a Russian academic came out stating that the United States was going to break apart in 2010 due to our poor economic situation.

“There’s a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur,” he says. “One could rejoice in that process,” he adds, poker-faced. “But if we’re talking reasonably, it’s not the best scenario — for Russia.” Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S. 

Right away it seems odd that he puts it at a 50% chance – I mean, isn’t there a 50% chance of something happening at any point to begin with?  Anyway, here is how he expects the break-up to shake out:

(via WSJ)

I also find it interesting that Russia is facing, and using the military to put an end to, dissent due to the devaluation of the ruble because of the plunging price of oil….

Anything can happen, don’t get me wrong, but it looks like Russia has more issues right now than the US.

Gotta love it when people come out and say things like this:

“I think that you should hear what my opinion about the Obama election is: that he will not be the next president. I said on my home page in August that if he lost to expect to see the ‘riots’ that 2 Peter 2:13 tells us about. He didn’t lose. But the story is not finished yet. I still think they may begin the riots before Christmas 2008, as I said.” 

I have no issue with religion.  Actually, I have no issue with individuals with extreme views – no matter how radical or out there they may be.  My issue comes down to when such individuals attempt to capitalize on their extreme views via fear.

This “Prophet” sells “survival guides” via his website.  Essentially, he is out preaching fear and there is a set of individuals, ones who do not critically look at data and situations, that will simply hand over their money. Sure, one can argue if individuals are that gullible they deserve to part with their money, but still…  It’s the modern version of the snake oil salesmen.

One thing Leland Freeborn, the Parowan Prophet, does that Gerald Celente seems to forget, is his past failures.

Freeborn conceded that he’d issued similar warnings many times before, and still the world kept spinning. Prophecy, he said, is not an exact science. “I’ve been at it for 30 years, and I have always really believed it,” he said. “Now, if we go on, that’s great. Maybe we can get some more people to repent.”

Freeborn may very well believe what he is saying, and his intent is not to cause fear within a segment of society, but it really seems suspect when your only source of income is directly connected to the “message” you are sending.

Ok, with all the searching on information for Gerald Celente and his predictions for the US, I decided to track down a video of him. While none of this information is “new”, you can see his comments in person and judge for yourself.

Read the rest of this entry »

While out reading financial news of the day, I happened to find an article quoting a Russian Professor, Igor Panarin. He is expecting the U.S. to break up into separate nations due to the financial climate facing the U.S. and world economies (kinda sound like Gerald Celente, no?).

Ok, more doom and gloom much like everything else going around these days. Nothing new. While I cannot find any background on Professor Igor Panarin he lost me with the following:

“we could claim Alaska – it was only granted on lease, after all.”

Sorry, Alaska was purchased – not leased. At least he’s not predicting that all front yards will be turned into gardens by the year 2000. Who know, maybe he’s drinking some vodka poisoned by Chernobyl.

Last week an individual by the name of Gerald Celente made a number of bold claims, including that America will become an undeveloped nation by 2012, people will be rioting in the streets and a number of giant corporations will crumble to their deaths.

I called bullshit on his predictions simply because he tends to be very general and ignores his past failings and trumpets his successes. Some of what he is predicting happens every day. It seems there are always protests in the US at one point or another and large corporations fail all the time, but let’s assume for a moment that he is right. Let’s take the worst case and say modern society simply falls apart… simply fails. What kind of world would the United States face?

Looking at statistics and other scenarios where civilizations fall, a good comparison is to that of a country that was on the ass end of an ass kicking (a war torn country). What better example to look to than Germany after World War Two. Understand this is not a perfect “fit” as Germany was propped up and governed by the American, British, French and Soviet governments, but it gives us a good starting point.

So, if our systems simply fell apart we could face:

• Hyperinflation – our money would be virtually worthless. Society would turn to either precious metals (Gold, Silver) as means of payment and the bartering for services would be another means of obtaining the items one needs.
• People who wished to keep positions of responsibility would have to prove to the masses, or the individuals who held the most power, they were trustworthy and not a threat to society or those in power.
• Public infrastructure (roads, railways, water works) could fall into decay, creating an environment that would virtually prohibit travel and commerce. A 35 minute commute may turn into a 4 hour excursion. Energy (Oil, gas) would be limited or non-existent meaning people would turn to wood and coal.
• Good bye internet! Telecommunications would fall apart leaving a very select few groups (remaining federal government and educational institutions) with the means of communication, and they would be limited. No cell phones, no wireless…
• Law enforcement would become a highly localized issue, kind of a “group rule” scenario. As this is the worse case scenario, local government will have collapsed meaning local police departments will have disbanded leaving people fight for themselves OR put the burden on the remaining military, allowing them to police the nation.
• Crime would be out of control – need we say anything more?
• Healthcare would be virtually non existent and all health / science advancements of recent years would be absorbed by other governments or lost until rediscovered by future generations. We would be back to a state where the common cold could simply wipe out a large segment of society every year.
• Food… We would all suddenly be hunters and gathers. Large farms would no longer be realistic and your favorite places to eat would be long gone…

I’m sure there are hundreds, if not thousands, of other things that would take place but these are the first things that come to mind by looking at post-war / post-revolution countries (and thinking about every movie I’ve ever seen about Armageddon).

Will this happen… I highly doubt it. HIGHLY doubt it. The World economy is in recession, and a very bad one, that is expected to last for almost another year. It happens, it’s the normal course of business even thought it was caused by extreme events.

If I’m wrong, I’ll flat out admit it… but if I am, it won’t be on the site as I won’t have access to the internet!

Dealing with insomnia, and no means of easily falling asleep, I started to think about a posting I saw yesterday entitled “Celente Predicts Revolution, Food Riots, Tax Rebellions By 2012”

The writer of the blog posting interviewed Gerald Celente, a self proclaimed futurist and CEO of Trends Research Institute, an organization that specializes in Forecasting International Business Trends. Allegedly Mr. Celente has predicted…

• 1987 Stock Market Crash
• The collapse of the Soviet Union
• Bottled Water
• Employers having low productivity for a few weeks after New Years Eve 2000
• The Internet Stock Bubble Crash

Seems like an impressive track record, no? So, what is he saying for now?

• America will become an undeveloped nation
• There will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches
• Holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts
• Giant Corporations will tumble to their deaths

Without a doubt the Global economy is facing a challenging time. Corporations based in every vertical will fail and unemployment will rise, people will face tough choices and quality of life may be impeded for some but does that mean the United States is headed for a revolution?

Looking at the past predictions of Mr. Celente it appears he hit the mark but it also seems that he simply provides general statements that kind of come to fruition and kind of don’t. When he has a success, like any good showman, then he promotes his successes and ignores his failures. Just look back at 1996 when he said that by 2000:

• most lawns will be transformed into gardens
• most of us will no longer make the false distinction we used to between “quality” time and the rest of the day All time will be quality time
• family” will also broaden beyond that of blood … It will come to mean groups of interdependent people–relatives, friends, and neighbors–who share values, goals, responsibilities. (Isn’t this called a community?)
• Boardinghouses will return with full force
• The video phone will be in wide use (Still waiting for my flying car, too)
• The return of individuality will spell an end to the multibillion-dollar fashion industry

Right.

I like how he easily forgets about those past predictions. I mean, it really doesn’t sound all that difficult. Let’s have a shot at it, shall we? I predict that…

• If humanity continues manned spaced exploration they will suffer shocking and unexpected losses due to technical error
• Every day items, such as phone / laptops / media devices, will continue to become smaller in order to provide convenience to users of the devices
• The earth will be subjected to numerous shifts in climate temperature
• European economies may suffer due to a lack of qualified younger individuals (specifically in Italy and German) to fill roles within the workforce
• I predict that if Celente is right I will admit it but if my predictions are more accurate, no one will come knocking on my door to predict the future

Does this mean I am a futurist too?

The problem I have with most people who call themselves futurists is they arrive at their predictions based on subjective analysis of past events and then try applying their interpretations to current situations or potential scenarios based on nothing more than interpretation. What seems to be lacking, most times, is data.

What this really looks like, to me, is that he is in the business of selling books and services. Sure, some of the things Gerald Celente predicted will occur. People will protest for one reason or another, individuals won’t leave their foreclosed houses and companies will fail.

Wait for it… It’s called life.