The Flu, Swine Flu and the Ukraine

During a normal flu season roughly 5% to 20% of the U.S. population will get the flu (all strains covered). If one take the “worst case” numbers 20% will translate to about 68M people.  When the CDC states that about 22M people in the U.S. have had the swine from April of 09 to October of 09 that may seem like big number but, really, it is in line what what the CDC expects in a normal flu season anyway…  And that is what I love about stats.

People like to use numbers to prove points/win arguments because the majority of the listening audience does not question the data.  Sorry to say it but there is a serious lack of critical thinking which lead does not lead to “Well, how is this different than any year?”

I’ve said it a number of times, and unless I see a set a drastic events, I will continue to say the Swine Flu is nowhere as bad as the media is making it out to be.

Another example of this may be the reaction in the Ukraine.

In a sudden fury of activity the Ukrainian government began voicing concern about national security, closing down schools nation wide, and quarantining hospitals because of a sudden rise in swine flu.  According to Ukrainian government stats, 1,192,481 people have the swine flu within the country of roughly 46 million people.

Put in another way – roughly 4.1% of their population. While I do not have average number of flu cases within the Ukraine 4% seems rather low all things considered.

Initially the outbreak was called an “unknown disease” but has since been identified as the swine flu.  Sure, facing something that has never been identified could explain the concern about national security and establishing quarantines… but, again, 4% seems rather low.

Is gold running out?

The supply of gold on the Earth is finite.  No new supplies will be created.  So, it is interesting to hear the CEO of Barrick Gold – the largest gold mining company – say the company is stopping their hedging practice.

Quick reminder: Hedging is used by companies to protect themselves from price volatility, usually buying/selling contracts of goods at a set price.

Example: I think the price of oil is going to rise in the future so I buy oil options for 4 years out at the current price ($77).  Let’s say the price of oil doubles ($144) I will only have to pay my option price ($77).  Alternatively, if the price drops over that time period I will have lost the difference between what I paid and the price at the time the option expires.

So what would cause Barrick to stop the practice of selling hedges?  There is only one answer that would fit under the current market conditions, they believe they only direction the price of gold is heading is upward.

Chicago Bears…

Yea, they suck.  Just needed to get that out there.  Sure the defense is playing as if they are a different team from last Sunday, now Jay Cutler is sucking ass and sucking hard.

Really guys, what’s up?

The Alavi Foundation

I was very surprised to see in the news that the U.S. is trying to confiscate the holdings of the Alavi Foundation.  First off, I’ve never head of the Alavi Foundation, but the U.S. claims this group is a front for the Iranian Government. Second, I’m surprised because – to the best of my knowledge – there wasn’t much, if any, word the group showing up in the press previous to this event.

Making the assumption the Alavi Foundation is a front for the Iranian Government, why is action being take at this time?  What is the cause/motivation for action? Is this a warning to the Iranian government because of their actions with regards to the nuke program?

Time to start putting the pieces together…

Lou Dobbs leaves CNN

In what came as a surprise for a number of people, Lou Dobbs is leaving CNN.  Except for a short period of time spent at space.com Dobbs was with the network since it was founded. Weird, no?

Anyone have a guess as to why he is leaving.  I’m sure there are odds in Vegas on this, but I’m going with Lou Dobbs may be considering a run for some political position.

Yes, call me nuts, but look at what he said in his speech:

And as for the important work of restoring inspiration to our great free society and our market economy, I will strive as well to be a leader in that national conversation

If that doesn’t sound like someone who is about to make a run, I don’t know what does.  I mean, for crying out loud, he had a huge picture of the American flag behind him! Yes, time will tell, but as I am a betting man this is where I would put my money.

Not getting enough info on the Swine Flu?

Here is a Twitter feed that will keep you satisfied. As a friend said, it’s “all things swine flu, all the time“.

Ok, yesterday I saw this article and thought to myself.  Really?  

As the swine flu outbreak continues spreading, an Israeli health official is making waves by saying the name should be changed to “Mexican” flu, because the reference to pigs is offensive to Jews and Muslims, who consider pigs unclean and forbid the eating of pork products. 

For me, the dumbassity (yes, it’s now a word – deal with it) is in the following words:

“the reference to pigs is offensive to Jews and Muslims”

This is especially the case when one take a brief moment to say “Oh, yea… because calling it Mexican flu isn’t offensive to anyone”.

I mean, really people.

Jews and Muslims do not even eat pork, so what the hell is the issue?  By this logic, saying pork, pig, or hogs should be equally offensive because Jews and Muslims cannot eat said products anyway.   I’ve always had this issue with society trying to be overly politically correct.

In my opinion, this is one of those cases.  

Well, I thought the dumbassity was only limited Israel at this point.  Yea, sorry to say that is not the case.  U.S. pork producers want the swine of out the name as well. Why do you think?  Simply because their business is starting to take a hit.

“At a news briefing, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack took pains to repeatedly refer to the flu as the “H1N1 virus.” 

Here is an idea, let’s call it Pork Flu.  No, Ham flu.  Oh, wait, what about double bacon cheese burger flu.  The reason the “swine” flu will stick is because people, well a number of people, have no ability to connect to H1N1. Anyway, people need just relax a bit.

I finally feel a bit caught up from the last few days.  It’s amazing how three days out of the normal routine can really throw things off.

Here we go…

Swine Flu?

Apparently the end of the world is here once again.  This time it’s not the economy, it’s not terrorism, it’s swine flu.  Everyone was worried about Bird Flu, but no… the pigs want to have their way with the world.

What most people don’t pay attention to – and this may be due to the fact that it’s not known outside of WHO all that much – but swine tend to be the major incubators of the new cases of flu in the world as pig easily have the ability to get multiple strains of the flu (bird/human) and then the genetic magic happens.  New versions then emerge.  Since humans and pig (farmers) live in close contact, the flu then easily spreads.

Yea, this may not be the end of the world.  Just to put things in perspective, roughly 240,000 people die world wide from normal flu.  Thus far there are 60 known deaths.  Will that go up?  Who knows…

A mash-up showing cases/suspected cases of the swine flu can be found here.

You a night owl?

I’m a night owl.  I think that I’m sharper, I think I perform better, and I think I am more relaxed later in the evening.  Actually, my peak time of operation is from 11PM to about 4AM.  It’s just the time of the day that works for me.  

Well… 

Turns out that there is evidence that the night owls may have the advantage when it comes to focusing and performance.  Cognitively, the people who are sharper in the evening may be more inclined to more focus than the “early bird” when it comes to every day tasks.

 GM to pull the plug on Pontiac?

News stories are pointing to GM making some major announcements on Monday.  One such announcement is the Pontiac brand, GM “fun” division, is going to get the ax while the company focuses on their core areas in order to complete the turn-around plan.

I have not researched the Pontiac manufacturing costs, nor have I taken steps to see if the division is profitable, but what I find interesting is they are killing off this brand while that had yearly sales of 267K units in 2008.

Why is that interesting to me?

The Pontiac sales numbers are higher than two core brands (Cadillac and Buick).  Cadillac had sales of 161K and Buick had sales of 137K.  Unless Pontiac is just leaking money, it would appear this brand has some value.  I understand that the Cadillac and Buick brands are the “badge” brands, ones that are targeted to specific groups, but simply killing off Pontiac does not appear to make sense on the surface.

Bioshock, the movie, to be put on ice?

This is just a major pisser for me.  

Rumors are abound that Bioshock, the movie after the highly successful PC game, is being put on hold due to financial/budgetary concerns. Universal says it is still committed to the project, but the move is going to remain in an extended period of pre-production.

I loved the game, one of the best I’ve ever played, and I was looking forward to a Gore Verbinski take on this fictional world.

*sigh*

Ok, I’m off!