Let’s go into flashback mode, shall we?

I remember the fall of 1990 very well.  I was in junior high, unaware of the world around me, just simply enjoying the time with my friends (and my video games).  It was the “good old days”. 

I suddenly became aware of world events due to one unlikely thing: there was a prediction of a major earthquake in the Midwest on December 2nd or 3rd.  Yes, a prediction. 

As the date grew closer the general public started to become hyper-aware of the potential for an earthquake. The paranoia reached us heights that our school started having earthquake drill in preparation for that day.  I recall covering my head and thinking “Right, my hands have the ability to stop a massive building from killing me”.

It was all thanks to this dip – Iben Browening

Wouldn’t you know it, December 2nd and 3rd came and went with no earthquake, no end of the world, and Browening died less than a year later a laughing stock.  I like to think he died due the embarrassment of making such a bold statement, but doctors say he actually died of a heart attack.

Anyway, the Federal Emergency Management Agency just released updated information about the potential catastrophic effects of an earthquake in the New Madrid fault zone.  

The fault line is so powerful, as a matter of fact, that an earthquake back in 1812 reversed the flow of the Mississippi River.  So, yes, the fault zone is one of the most dangerous in the world, but it is also one of the most inactive.   I have no problem with warning people about potential dangers; I just have a problem with how it’s done… Such as…

“the highest economic losses due to a natural disaster in the United States.”

and

“a large earthquake would cause “widespread and catastrophic physical damage” across Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee — home to some 44 million people.”

While they didn’t predict an earthquake, I can see the nut balls coming out of the woodwork once again trying to predict the end of the world.  Now only that, I can see a number of self-proclaimed “researchers” trying to make huge amount of money off of the unsuspecting, uneducated, members of that 44 million.

As if we don’t have enough to worry about these days…

Ike slammed into the Bahamas causing serious damage, hurt the relief efforts already underway in already suffering Haiti, and just went ashore in Cuba roughly an hour ago.  The storm is now a Category 3 Hurricane, down froma 4, and is expected to come in to the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday or Wednesday.

The current storm track can be found here and here.  Storm models show Ike drifting east or west of New Orleans, which can give the city a break but can mean trouble for Houston, Mississippi or Alabama.

Something to keep in mind: the price of oil.  NYMEX Crude and Nymex Henry Hub Futures (Natural Gas) are both up 2.26 and 3.0% respectively.  If the storm causes a shutdown of oil / gas production and OPEC cuts oil output expect the prices to rise.

Update: Oil Price Coverage

• WSJ - Energy sector Hums Again
• Reuters - Oil rises over $2 to top $108 on hurricane threat

  From the Reuters article…

Hurricane Ike is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico as a severe Category 4 storm, a U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency official said on Sunday. It may threaten Gulf energy rigs that account for a quarter of U.S. oil output and 15 percent of natural gas production.

• AP - Gulf oil and gas producers give Ike a serious look

With nearly 88 percent of crude-oil and 74 percent of natural-gas output shut due to Hurricane Gustav, it is easy to see how Ike could shut down all production once again.