If you think back several weeks with me, you’ll remember the the Treasury announcing a “bank stress test” that would help determine what banks had enough liquidity to stay functional.  Former Bank regulator, William Black, believes it’s a sham in order to make the public believe the government is taking action:

There are no real stress tests going on. 

If you did a real stress test, as Geithner explained them, you wouldn’t just have a $2 trillion hole — you’d impose regulatory capital requirements of 50%…

You can’t conduct a meaningful stress test without reviewing (sampling) the underlying loan files and it seems likely that the purchasers of securitized instruments (not just mortgages) do not even have the loan file data…

As Geithner describes the process, NO ONE can conduct reliable “stress testing.” It inherently requires testing everything in every way any and all aspects of everything could conceivably interact. It also doesn’t provide any meaningful output that can be operationalized (unless you want to force an enormous rise in minimum regulatory capital requirements, which he obviously doesn’t want to do).

A number of other economists also question the point of the stress test.  The general feeling was that the “worst case” economic scenarios that were used in the stress test did not even come close to recreating the conditions the financial industry really will be facing.

If, indeed, the stress test was a sham AND the economic scenarios used during the test do not reflect reality, what does it mean that the U.S. Government is going to delay the stress test results until AFTER the earnings season that just started in order to prevent a market panic.

To me, this really means three things:

1. Even under the easy standards set in the stress test some financial institutions cannot pass the test
    
2. The government is looking to buy time in order to develop a plan for the banks that are insolvent
    
3. If the plan for insolvent banks is nationalization, the Treasury Secretary expects the stock market to react in a highly negative manner.
    

With the Alcoa news this week, the Fed Meeting Minutes showing the recovery will be longer off than expected and the release of TARP funds to Life Insurance companies today, what does it mean to hear the Treasury is planning on delaying the bank test results?  

Easy.  The worst of the worst is not even upon the financial market as of yet….

A few days ago I commented on the recent “refinancing rush” which has/is taking place due to the recently lowered interest rates.  I would have no problem arguing that there is no “rush” as a 3% rise really isn’t a “rush”.

Anyway.. Here is the proof…

(Sources – Bloomberg and Ritholtz.com)

Here is the important question that everyone needs to be asking – if the housing market continues to fall, what can the government do to stop it?  

The belief has always been that lowering interest rates will spur buying, and in turn, property values stabilize.  Since it appears common market  principles are no applying, what is to say this will work?  

The only option, and it would have helped significantly if this was done in the first place, is to buy the toxic mortgages…