The latest unemployment numbers are out and the situation continues to look grim. While layoffs slowed to 539,000 jobs lost in the month of April, down from 699,000 jobs in March, the unemployment rate continues to rise. The official government reported number currently stands at 8.9%, though the argument could easily be made that true unemployment is significantly higher.

Yes, the job loss rate slowed in April. That is nothing to get excited about, especially when you consider that this is the 16th consecutive month of job losses AND there is no sign of increased hiring activity. Simply put, the U.S. economy is far from recovery.

Only 4 months into the year, I still hold to my view that unemployment will hit 10% by the end of December.

UPDATE: The TRUE Unemployment number is…

Above I noted that the 8.9% unemployment rate is debatable. Why is that? The 8.9% represents “Totally unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force”.

Got that? Good. When one looks at “Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers” then unemployment jumps to 15.8%

But what is this whole “marginally attached workers” thing you speak of?

Simply put, a marginally attached worker is a person who currently is neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.

They are the despondent, those who have given up hope. So, take those who still are looking for work (hopeful) and those who are not (given up) and one arrives at 15.8% – that is your TRUE unemployment number.