Van Santos

Just hearing a few bit and pieces on the news today regarding Iran, but not too much.  Here are a number of links to keep you up to date:

War In Context - Iran’s political coup (thanks Gianna!).

Someone doesn’t want the world to see what is going on, BBC Says election broadcasts disrupted from Iran.

People are taking to the rooftops protesting Ahmadinejad.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad celebrates win with show of brutality.

US Withholds Judgment on Iran Election Results.

You may not be seeing the news of the recent Iranian election on stations such as CNN, Fox News or MSNBC.  If you have, however, chances are its coverage about President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad being declared winner.  What the public is not really seeing is the anger, the demonstrations and violence over the elections due to claims of a manipulated election.

Hossein Mousavi, the opposition to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has released a letter addressed to the Iranian people.  Here is the full English text of his letter (via tehranbureau.com)

In the Name of God

Honorable people of Iran

The reported results of the 10th Iranians residential Election are appalling. The people who witnessed the mixture of votes in long lineups know who they have voted for and observe the wizardry of I.R.I.B (State run TV and Radio) and election officials. Now more than ever before they want to know how and by which officials this game plan has been designed. I object fully to the current procedures and obvious and abundant deviations from law on the day of election and alert people to not surrender to this dangerous plot. Dishonesty and corruption of officials as we have seen will only result in weakening the pillars of the Islamic Republic of Iran and empowers lies and dictatorships.

I am obliged, due to my religious and national duties, to expose this dangerous plot and to explain its devastating effects on the future of Iran. I am concerned that the continuation of the current situation will transform all key members of this regime into fabulists in confrontation with the nation and seriously jeopardize them in this world and the next.

I advise all officials to halt this agenda at once before it is too late, return to the rule of law and protect the nation’s vote and know that deviation from law renders them illegitimate. They are aware better than anyone else that this country has been through a grand Islamic revolution and the least message of this revolution is that our nation is alert and will oppose anyone who aims to seize the power against the law.

I use this chance to honor the emotions of the nation of Iran and remind them that Iran, this sacred being, belongs to them and not to the fraudulent. It is you who should stay alert. The traitors to the nation’s vote have no fear if this house of Persians burns in flames. We will continue with our green wave of rationality that is inspired by our religious learnings and our love for prophet Mohammad and will confront the rampage of lies that has appeared and marked the image of our nation. However we will not allow our movement to become blind one.

I thank every citizen who took part in spreading this green message by becoming a campaigner and all official and self organized campaigns, I insist that their presence is essential until we achieve results deserving of our country.

[ verse from in Quran: Why not trust in God, who has shown us our ways. We are patient in face of what disturbs us. Our resilience is in god. ]

Mir Hossein Mousavi

Oh, and guess what?  Housavi is reportedly under house arrest for his post-election letter.

Talking things one step further, it appears communications have been cut in Tehran:

The main mobile telephone network in Iran was cut in the capital Tehran Saturday evening while popular Internet websites Facebook and YouTube also appeared to be blocked, correspondents said.

The communication cuts came after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won a landslide re-election victory, sparking rioting in the streets by opposition supporters who claimed the result had been rigged.

The mobile phone network stopped working at 10:00 pm (1730 GMT), just before Ahmadinejad went on television to declare the election a “great victory” and even as baton-wielding police were clashing with protestors in the streets of Tehran, according to witnesses.

Was the election rigged?  There is no way for us to ever truly know. There is, however, very little doubt that something major is potentially underway in the country of Iran. If a false election did take place, will the population stand up en masse? I hope so.

Let me be very blunt about polling and surveys before I continue on.  Penn and Teller did an outstanding job showing how polling can often be just pure Bullsh*t.  A pollster can structure a question in order to obtain the answer they, or the person who hired them, are looking for.  When a firm such as Zogby or Gallup conducts presidential polling; however, the question usually is usually not leading to a specific answer and unbiased.  That said, let’s look at the current polling information.

USAToday: McCain 50% / Obama 46%
Gallup: McCain 49% / Obama 44%
Zogby: McCain 49.7% / Obama 45.9%
Realclearpolitics Avergage: McCain 48.3% / Obama 45.4%

A number of things are, most likely, reflective in this data.  The Obama DNC bounce has faded back to previous level, the RNC convention gave McCain his post election bounce, and Sarah Palin has taken over the national spotlight.   There are a number undercurrents that could also be included, but that would be pure speculation.

Both campaigns need to face the reality that they are running into the home stretch of the election.  With some 50 odd days left the polls will continue to swing unless one of the campaigns makes a huge error.  If an egregious, publicly embarrassing event is committed by either candidate you can bet the polls will swing away from them and stay away, thus causing them a loss.

Much like the Sarah Palin speech, Republicans need to keep their focus.  Yes, it’s nice to be “up” in the polls but with 57 days left it is meaningless. Do NOT become overconfident.

Other Reactions:

Hot Air - Gallup: McCain 48, Obama 45 — outside the margin of error

Hennessy’s View - McCain Lead Outside Margin of Error

AlphaPatriot - Dems are the New “Status Quo”

Guntotingliberal - John McCain Flip-Flops Again, This Time By Enjoying The Sarah Palin “Barracuda Bump”

internet scofflaw - McCain Leads

Rightvoices.com - MCCAIN TAKES 10-POINT LEAD OVER OBAMA IN LIKELY VOTERS…Good News: There Is A Convention Bounce Gallup Has McCain Up 48% to 45% Over Obama

Blue Crab Boulevard - Tea Leaves and Caution

Scared Monkeys - Panic time for Obama

Airbare8 @ rochesterturning.com makes a great point to all the democrats out there – never underestimate your opponent.  I believe adversaries end up underestimating their opponents when they are overcome with hubris.  History has plenty of examples from which the Democratic Party keep in the back of their mind…

1. The United States never thought Japan could launch an attack on their territories
2. Hitler thought his army was so strong it could steamroll Russia during the winter
3. The United States didn’t expect organized peasants to hand the military a defeat

And so on, and so on…

Despite some negatives, Sarah Palin is still an unknown for the democratic party – and the U.S. in general.  Airbare8 points out:

The media could drop the ball on her past record and instead beat the “maverick” narrative to death. She could be a great campaigner who connects with people, in particular moderate suburban women, on a gut level. She has a compelling life story that may win over some Hillary-supporters who care more about personality politics than they do about policies. Palin could also drive a lot of evangelicals and disaffected conservatives to the polls. She may give a fantastic speech at the RNC. Biden may turn off some undecided voters if he appears too tough on her in the debate (remember Rick Lazio). Keep in mind as well, she defeated popular former Governor Tony Knowles in 2006 in a close election.

The campaign still has 60 days left, anything can happen.  Many feel it is Obama’s election to lose.  Let’s see if hubris comes into play on his part.

Much like the residents of 49 of these United States, I know very little about Sarah Palin.  My first exposure to her came in April of 2008 when she gave birth to her son Trig who happen to be special needs.  The news had coverage of the story, and that she was a rising star within the Republican Party, but I never really gave her much attention after that.  Then came Friday, August 29th, 2008.

So, who is she?  What does she stand for?  What does she believe?  I’m very curious…let’s see what we can find out.

The Basics:

• Name: Sarah Louise Heath Palin
• Born: February 11, 1964
• Education: BS in Journalism from the University of Idaho
• Party: Republican
• Current Occupation: Governor of Alaska
• Family: Married with 5 children

The Experience:

• Two Term Wasilla City Counsel member
• Two Term Wasilla Mayor
• Ethics Commissioner of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission
• Governor of Alaska

Her views:

• Abortion: Pro Life
• Marriage: Anti-Gay Marriage
• Death Penalty: Supports
• Energy: For Bio Fuel, Supports Drilling in ANWR
• Evolution: Supports creationism to be discussed in school
• Gun Control: Supports the right to bear arms

Controversies:

She is under investigation for the firing of Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan.  Palin stated Monegan was released due to not filling vacant state trooper positions, as well as adhering to the budget. Palin offered Monegan a position as executive director of the state Alcoholic Beverage Control Board, which he turned down. Monegan claims he was let go as retaliation for his reluctance to fire Palin’s former brother-in-law, an Alaska State Trooper.

I hope this gives you a good starting point to understand who Sarah Palin is. No doubt, more information will come out within the next 60 days.  As it does, I will continue to update.

• 8:05: 3 min standing ovation, you can see why he is easy to like
• 8:06: He’s here to support Barack
• 8:07: mentioned Hillary a lot…
• 8:08: Hillary supports should vote for Barack
• 8:08: He’s getting good… questions US leadership in the world, showing rise in costs, burdened military
• 8:10: The next president needs to rebuild the US in the view of the world, guess who is the man for this job
• 8:11: Obama has shown a clear grasp on foreign policy
• 8:13: Obama will HAVE the foreign policy support with Biden… Barack Obama is ready to be president of the United States

(Comment) It’s interesting to see how much Clinton is pounding on foreign policy.

• 8:14: Obama will chose diplomacy first, force second. When he cannot convert a foreign power he will stand up to them. Trying to hit at Iran, maybe? Didn’t sell me
• 8:16: We cannot be strong abroad if we are not strong at home
• 8:17: First true attack on Republicans - this one is on the economy. This will help people remember how “good” the economy was under Clinton

(Comment) They are showing Michelle Obama a lot

• 8:18: “Yes we can” but first we need to elect him
• 8:19: McCain is a great man, great hero but he is just a Republican not an agent of change
• 8:20: Look at what the Republican congress did (he’s listing his accomplishments again, will help people remember yet again)
• 8:21: McCain is more of the same, more “going it alone” and in this case the 3rd time is not the charm
• 8:23: Drawing comparisons between Clinton being to young and inexperienced to Obama (Great line) but it will not work
• 8:24: We see the future in Barack and family, he will lead us away from the division to unity

I could not stand Clinton as a President. He had some great economic success but was terrible on a number of other critical topics. All that aside, watching this today one can see the easy talking, likable “every day”, Bill Clinton.

Vintage Clinton.

• 8:05: 3 min standing ovation, you can see why he is easy to like
• 8:06: He’s here to support Barack
• 8:07: mentioned Hillary a lot…
• 8:08: Hillary supports should vote for Barack
• 8:08: He’s getting good… questions US leadership in the world, showing rise in costs, burdened military
• 8:10: The next president needs to rebuild the US in the view of the world, guess who is the man for this job
• 8:11: Obama has shown a clear grasp on foreign policy
• 8:13: Obama will HAVE the foreign policy support with Biden… Barack Obama is ready to be president of the United States

(Comment) It’s interesting to see how much Clinton is pounding on foreign policy.

• 8:14: Obama will chose diplomacy first, force second. When he cannot convert a foreign power he will stand up to them. Trying to hit at Iran, maybe? Didn’t sell me
• 8:16: We cannot be strong abroad if we are not strong at home
• 8:17: First true attack on Republicans - this one is on the economy. This will help people remember how “good” the economy was under Clinton

(Comment) They are showing Michelle Obama a lot

• 8:18: “Yes we can” but first we need to elect him
• 8:19: McCain is a great man, great hero but he is just a Republican not an agent of change
• 8:20: Look at what the Republican congress did (he’s listing his accomplishments again, will help people remember yet again)
• 8:21: McCain is more of the same, more “going it alone” and in this case the 3rd time is not the charm
• 8:23: Drawing comparisons between Clinton being to young and inexperienced to Obama (Great line) but it will not work
• 8:24: We see the future in Barack and family, he will lead us away from the division to unity

I could not stand Clinton as a President. He had some great economic success but was terrible on a number of other critical topics. All that aside, watching this today one can see the easy talking, likable “every day”, Bill Clinton.

Vintage Clinton.