Over the last several weeks a number of economic events have taken place that really concern me. For some time I’ve held the view that the economic recovery being reported by the media and government is anything but.
With port traffic down year over year close to 18%, hotel rentals down roughly 14%, car sales down from 20% to 40% (post stimulus), unemployment rising and consumer confidence falling, it is clear the average consumer isn’t coming back to the purchasing table. As the consumer accounts for roughly 65% of the economic activity in the U.S. this is a problem if we are to believe in a recovery. In conjunction with the above, a number of other things have taken place that only go to create the possible trigger for the next economic meltdown.
The Capmark and CIT bankruptcies
Capmark, the former GMAC commercial real estate mortgage lender, declared bankruptcy on October 25th. This mortgage lender happens to be one of the largest in the United States but what does this event really dictate? The weakness in retail sales is being felt on all levels and is expected to carry on to other CRE lenders. Translation – the Capmark bankruptcy was the first in a number of coming CRE lenders going bust.
CIT, one of the largest commercial and consumer financing companies, also declared bankruptcy. CIT is to small business credit what Lehman was to the derivatives market. While the sudden impacts of a CIT bankruptcy may not be noticeable to the consumer, small business will feel the impact shortly as the company is only expected to provide roughly 20% of the loans they issued last year.
Such a situation will mean that small business will need to find other credit sources or go without. With credit already in contraction that will mean the requirements are going to be higher in order to obtain credit and/or the interest rates will be significantly higher. All of this points to a small business market with limited or no credit.
Much like the residential real estate market collapsed so will the Commercial Real Estate market and the effects will be felt by some of the largest banks in the U.S. The commercial and consumer financing collapse at CIT also advances the effects, all of which point to further credit restriction in the next 8 to 12 months.
This past earnings season
Did you notice this past earning season was a blow out? Companies the financial pundits expect to report poor results did not and everyone was celebrating. I mean, really, the DOW broke 10,000 again on the news.
CSX, the transportation giant, turned a profit of .74 cents per share. Alcoa recorded their first profit in more than a year, equipment giant Caterpillar turned a profit of .60 cents a share, Du Pont profits jumped 11%, GE posted a $2.5B net income… and the story can go on and on of positive news.
It’s a sham.
CSX turned a profit on revenue that was down 23%, Alcoa’s shipments were down by sequentially, the sales at Caterpillar fell 41%, Du Pont saw revenue fall 18% and GE’s revenue fell by 20%.
What people are seeing as a “positive” economic recovery is actually the result of major companies performing cost cutting. On the majority, revenues in the large S&P companies were down year over year showing NO sign of improvement.
Stabilization, yes. Improvement, no.
The problem with this earnings season isn’t what took place here, rather what will happen in 6 months when it is obvious that companies can no longer cut costs without cutting in their ability to remain operational, or what will take place when people take notice to the fact that the holiday sales for 2009 will be flat – if no lower – than 2008?
Easy. Everyday people will wake up to the lack of a recovery, leading to consumers spending less. The impact will be felt in organizations as layoffs increase and more companies going under.
Not trying to be all negative, there were two really impressive notes from the 3Q earning season – Apple and Amazon. Both companies provided outstanding results on the bottom line and on revenue.
Oh, and about the dollar and gold…
There is something scary going on in the Gold and Dollar markets.
The dollar is bouncing index (USDX) is bouncing around the 75.00 support level, which is a drop of nearly 15 points since the start of 2009.
Why is this happening? Easy, the dollar is experiencing the world moving away from it as an investment vehicle due to the roughly trillion dollars the Federal Reserve has pumped into the system over the last 12 months.
Essentially, the Fed is literally making money out of nothing there by diluting the current currency value and the world market wants nothing to do with it.
Iran has stated they will not sell oil in dollars, rather a basked of currencies and gold. Russia, China, Turkey have all suggested the same possibility. As to add insult to injury all of the above countries have stated the U.S. dollar should no longer be the world’s reserve currency.
And since there is no other true reserve currency where is all the money going? It’s going into gold.
India recently purchased 403.3 tons of gold, which pushed the price up to an all time high over $1,100 an ounce. China and Russia are also fighting to purchase 200 tons of the glitter from the IMF as a safety net. There are cases being reported worldwide of such events – major world governments and banks making large (or huge) gold purchases, and they are doing so in order to protect themselves from the falling dollar.
The world sees the coming economic issues and they are doing their best to protect themselves. For those who suggest that China would never let the dollar collapse due to their investments needs to think again. They are selling off their dollar positions in small amounts and buying HUGE stocks of commodities.
And where does this lead us?
One day in the not too distant future the world will see an event that really catches them off guard, and as with other currency collapses, there will be not apparent reason for it. One day the dollar will make a large, if not unprecedented, turn downward. This will lead to massive and rapid inflation of specific goods… namely the commodities that China (and other world governments) have been stocking up on. The price of food will elevate quickly while the cost of your wonderful LCD TV will fall.
The rapid inflation will lead to small businesses trying to find cash to run operations, but guess what, the commercial financing market is going to be at a trickle thanks to the collapse of CIT and the restricted credit market. Oil prices will rise rapidly leading to the U.S. trucking and transportation industry straight into a depression. Commercial real estate will continue to collapse as people will be spending money on food, not on clothing, cars and electronics. As a results, banks will feel the pinch.
Truly, we are in the perfect storm of economic events. But what is the solution?
The answer comes down to our government and their willingness to mop-up the nearly trillion dollars in excess liquidity, as well as their actions to cut the level of U.S. debt. Problem being, doing so will pull the legs out of the already weak economy.
In the end, it comes down to picking the lesser of two evils – preventing the collapse of the dollar or allowing the country to officially go back into a recession. The actions by this administration, as well as the past administration, have shown a history of poor critical decision making skills.
I understand that anything can happen and the economic world is “alive”. Literally, things can change in a second; however, too many things have taken place and are all pointing in one direction. The best way to summarize the events we face is in a quote from the classic HBO series – Deadwood.
Wild Bill Hickok: You know the sound of thunder, Mrs. Garret?
Alma Garret: Of course.
Wild Bill Hickok: Can you imagine that sound if I asked you to?
Alma Garret: Yes, I can, Mr. Hickok.
Wild Bill Hickok: Your husband and me had this talk, and I told him to head home to avoid a dark result. But I didn’t say it in thunder. Ma’am, listen to the thunder.
Listen to the thunder, folks…