The Flu, Swine Flu and the Ukraine

During a normal flu season roughly 5% to 20% of the U.S. population will get the flu (all strains covered). If one take the “worst case” numbers 20% will translate to about 68M people.  When the CDC states that about 22M people in the U.S. have had the swine from April of 09 to October of 09 that may seem like big number but, really, it is in line what what the CDC expects in a normal flu season anyway…  And that is what I love about stats.

People like to use numbers to prove points/win arguments because the majority of the listening audience does not question the data.  Sorry to say it but there is a serious lack of critical thinking which lead does not lead to “Well, how is this different than any year?”

I’ve said it a number of times, and unless I see a set a drastic events, I will continue to say the Swine Flu is nowhere as bad as the media is making it out to be.

Another example of this may be the reaction in the Ukraine.

In a sudden fury of activity the Ukrainian government began voicing concern about national security, closing down schools nation wide, and quarantining hospitals because of a sudden rise in swine flu.  According to Ukrainian government stats, 1,192,481 people have the swine flu within the country of roughly 46 million people.

Put in another way – roughly 4.1% of their population. While I do not have average number of flu cases within the Ukraine 4% seems rather low all things considered.

Initially the outbreak was called an “unknown disease” but has since been identified as the swine flu.  Sure, facing something that has never been identified could explain the concern about national security and establishing quarantines… but, again, 4% seems rather low.

Is gold running out?

The supply of gold on the Earth is finite.  No new supplies will be created.  So, it is interesting to hear the CEO of Barrick Gold – the largest gold mining company – say the company is stopping their hedging practice.

Quick reminder: Hedging is used by companies to protect themselves from price volatility, usually buying/selling contracts of goods at a set price.

Example: I think the price of oil is going to rise in the future so I buy oil options for 4 years out at the current price ($77).  Let’s say the price of oil doubles ($144) I will only have to pay my option price ($77).  Alternatively, if the price drops over that time period I will have lost the difference between what I paid and the price at the time the option expires.

So what would cause Barrick to stop the practice of selling hedges?  There is only one answer that would fit under the current market conditions, they believe they only direction the price of gold is heading is upward.

Chicago Bears…

Yea, they suck.  Just needed to get that out there.  Sure the defense is playing as if they are a different team from last Sunday, now Jay Cutler is sucking ass and sucking hard.

Really guys, what’s up?

The Alavi Foundation

I was very surprised to see in the news that the U.S. is trying to confiscate the holdings of the Alavi Foundation.  First off, I’ve never head of the Alavi Foundation, but the U.S. claims this group is a front for the Iranian Government. Second, I’m surprised because – to the best of my knowledge – there wasn’t much, if any, word the group showing up in the press previous to this event.

Making the assumption the Alavi Foundation is a front for the Iranian Government, why is action being take at this time?  What is the cause/motivation for action? Is this a warning to the Iranian government because of their actions with regards to the nuke program?

Time to start putting the pieces together…

Lou Dobbs leaves CNN

In what came as a surprise for a number of people, Lou Dobbs is leaving CNN.  Except for a short period of time spent at space.com Dobbs was with the network since it was founded. Weird, no?

Anyone have a guess as to why he is leaving.  I’m sure there are odds in Vegas on this, but I’m going with Lou Dobbs may be considering a run for some political position.

Yes, call me nuts, but look at what he said in his speech:

And as for the important work of restoring inspiration to our great free society and our market economy, I will strive as well to be a leader in that national conversation

If that doesn’t sound like someone who is about to make a run, I don’t know what does.  I mean, for crying out loud, he had a huge picture of the American flag behind him! Yes, time will tell, but as I am a betting man this is where I would put my money.

After a quiet day of protests yesterday, it appears the situation has heated up once again in Iran – Specifically in Baharestan Square. Check out the live blogging notes, pictures and video:

>The streets, squares and around BAHARESTAN (Approx. South-eastern of Tehran) is swarming with military forces, civilian forces, the security motorists

>Political prisoners and jurnalists were taken to critical condition in 209 Evin, washington times’s jurnalist was arrest!

>The military plain clothes have entered the crowd with high speed on bikes, they are beating people with cable and batons, almost everyone in the crowd is injured, there is blood everywhere!

>In Baharestan we saw militia with axe choping people like meat – blood everywhere – like butcher

>All shops and Passages are closed at Baharestan SQ, Gunshot being heard from Jomhori St

If any of this is true, the situation on the ground is unimaginable. It would also explain why Iran has been pushing the media out of the country – so the government could do whatever it wishes without the world watching. Also check out Tehran Bureau for updates.

UPDATE #1: Here is a transcript of an eyewitness account of Baharestan Square. Remember, the situation is fluid – most is unconfirmed – but it’s apparent something of note is going on.

UPDATE #2: Apparently the Iranian prosecutor of the Islamic Revolutionary Court, Saeed Motazavi, is now in charge of the crack down on protesters. He was also the man who oversaw the arrest and trial of Roxana Saberi, the American-Iranian journalist sentenced to eight years for spying.

UPDATE #3: Andrew Sullivan has a few quotes about the situation in the Square, also points out that far right candidate Mohsen Rezaie is no longer contesting the vote due to “political, social and security”.

Over the last several months Dick Cheney has gotten a fair amount of press, most of it is revolves around Cheney criticizing the Obama administration and they actions said administration has taken. It almost feels like I’ve seen more of Cheney in the last 3 months than I did in the 8 years of his Vice Presidency.

Take a look at the recent the notes CNN has up about Cheney comments:

“I guess I’ve been concerned the way that we’ve been presented overseas,” Cheney told Fox News host Sean Hannity Monday night. Cheney said he found it “disturbing” that the new president had gone overseas and seemingly apologized for past actions of the United States. “I think you have to be very careful. The world outside there — both our friends and our foes –will be quick to advantage of a situation if they think they’re dealing with a weak president or one who’s not going to stand up and aggressively defend America’s interests.

“The United States provides much of the leadership in the world. We have for a long time. I don’t think we’ve got much to apologize for.”

Just days after Obama shook hands and received a gift from Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, Cheney called the images of the encounter “not helpful.” “I think it sets the wrong standard,” Cheney added.

I cannot remember any other politician getting so much attention after leaving office or losing an election. The Clintons were generally silent after leaving office, Kerry/Edwards went off into the sunset with barely a word, and aside from one or two comments McCain doesn’t get much press. I can understand if Fox News was the only outlet reporting but why does this end up on CNN/ABC/et al?

Is Cheney having some sort of attention withdrawal? Does he feel as if he no longer has the spotlight and, as a result, needs to keep his face in front of the public? Does he feel as if what he worked the past 8 years has suddenly become pointless? Regardless, why do news organizations give him the exposure?

I’ve always understood Dick Cheney to be a deeply private individual. I would suspect there is some motive or intent behind his press appearances. What I cannot figure out, what I cannot play out in my mind, is what his ultimate goal is.

I cannot stand Kathy Griffin.  I don’t find her to be funny in any way, nor have I ever. I never understood why I didn’t care for her until this gem from Anderson Cooper’s New Years Eve coverage.

Shut up. You know what, screw you. I’m working. Why don’t you get a job, buddy? You know what, I don’t go to your job and knock the dicks out of your mouth. 

Then it hit me – I don’t like her because most of the stuff I’ve ever seen by Griffin is bitter, she attacks people in her comedy.  It’s now clear why she does so in her comedy, it’s because that is the way she lives her life.

Listen, I’ve said a whole bunch of nasty things in my life – as we all have – but when you are working, be it in an office or TV, one needs to represent themselves in the best possible manner because you are not only representing yourself, you are representing the organization you are working with.

It will be interesting to see if Kathy Griffin comes out and apologizes for the comment.