The Flu, Swine Flu and the Ukraine

During a normal flu season roughly 5% to 20% of the U.S. population will get the flu (all strains covered). If one take the “worst case” numbers 20% will translate to about 68M people.  When the CDC states that about 22M people in the U.S. have had the swine from April of 09 to October of 09 that may seem like big number but, really, it is in line what what the CDC expects in a normal flu season anyway…  And that is what I love about stats.

People like to use numbers to prove points/win arguments because the majority of the listening audience does not question the data.  Sorry to say it but there is a serious lack of critical thinking which lead does not lead to “Well, how is this different than any year?”

I’ve said it a number of times, and unless I see a set a drastic events, I will continue to say the Swine Flu is nowhere as bad as the media is making it out to be.

Another example of this may be the reaction in the Ukraine.

In a sudden fury of activity the Ukrainian government began voicing concern about national security, closing down schools nation wide, and quarantining hospitals because of a sudden rise in swine flu.  According to Ukrainian government stats, 1,192,481 people have the swine flu within the country of roughly 46 million people.

Put in another way – roughly 4.1% of their population. While I do not have average number of flu cases within the Ukraine 4% seems rather low all things considered.

Initially the outbreak was called an “unknown disease” but has since been identified as the swine flu.  Sure, facing something that has never been identified could explain the concern about national security and establishing quarantines… but, again, 4% seems rather low.

Is gold running out?

The supply of gold on the Earth is finite.  No new supplies will be created.  So, it is interesting to hear the CEO of Barrick Gold – the largest gold mining company – say the company is stopping their hedging practice.

Quick reminder: Hedging is used by companies to protect themselves from price volatility, usually buying/selling contracts of goods at a set price.

Example: I think the price of oil is going to rise in the future so I buy oil options for 4 years out at the current price ($77).  Let’s say the price of oil doubles ($144) I will only have to pay my option price ($77).  Alternatively, if the price drops over that time period I will have lost the difference between what I paid and the price at the time the option expires.

So what would cause Barrick to stop the practice of selling hedges?  There is only one answer that would fit under the current market conditions, they believe they only direction the price of gold is heading is upward.

Chicago Bears…

Yea, they suck.  Just needed to get that out there.  Sure the defense is playing as if they are a different team from last Sunday, now Jay Cutler is sucking ass and sucking hard.

Really guys, what’s up?

The Alavi Foundation

I was very surprised to see in the news that the U.S. is trying to confiscate the holdings of the Alavi Foundation.  First off, I’ve never head of the Alavi Foundation, but the U.S. claims this group is a front for the Iranian Government. Second, I’m surprised because – to the best of my knowledge – there wasn’t much, if any, word the group showing up in the press previous to this event.

Making the assumption the Alavi Foundation is a front for the Iranian Government, why is action being take at this time?  What is the cause/motivation for action? Is this a warning to the Iranian government because of their actions with regards to the nuke program?

Time to start putting the pieces together…

Lou Dobbs leaves CNN

In what came as a surprise for a number of people, Lou Dobbs is leaving CNN.  Except for a short period of time spent at space.com Dobbs was with the network since it was founded. Weird, no?

Anyone have a guess as to why he is leaving.  I’m sure there are odds in Vegas on this, but I’m going with Lou Dobbs may be considering a run for some political position.

Yes, call me nuts, but look at what he said in his speech:

And as for the important work of restoring inspiration to our great free society and our market economy, I will strive as well to be a leader in that national conversation

If that doesn’t sound like someone who is about to make a run, I don’t know what does.  I mean, for crying out loud, he had a huge picture of the American flag behind him! Yes, time will tell, but as I am a betting man this is where I would put my money.

So you mean the world is not ending?

If you’ve been diagnosed “probable” or “presumed”  2009 H1N1 or “swine flu”  in recent months, you may be surprised to know this: odds are you didn’t have H1N1 flu.

In fact, you probably didn’t have flu at all. That’s according to state-by-state test results obtained in a three-month-long CBS News investigation.

The ramifications of this finding are important. According to the Center for Disease Control, CDC, and Britain’s National Health Service, once you have H1N1 flu, you’re immune from future outbreaks of the same virus. Those who think they’ve had H1N1 flu — but haven’t — might mistakenly presume they’re immune. As a result, they might skip taking a vaccine that could help them, and expose themselves to others with H1N1 flu under the mistaken belief they won’t catch it. Parents might not keep sick children home from school, mistakenly believing they’ve already had H1N1 flu.

My personal take all along was the whole ’swine flu’ was over hyped.  Sure, anything can happen – suddenly 5% of the world could get sick and die – but I’m just not seeing it based off of what has happened thus far.

I was very skeptical and bothered by a story stating that public officials may be pushing for circumcision of all boys born in the United States in order to reduce the spread of H.I.V.   As a result, I have read a number of articles of the spread of viri and foreskin and, wouldn’t you know it, there is no agreed upon standard.

The CDC states:

Several types of research have documented that male circumcision significantly reduces the risk of HIV acquisition by men during penile-vaginal sex.

The INFO project from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health states this may be due to:

The interior side of the foreskin has a mucosal surface which is more susceptible to trauma than the tougher skin of the penile shaft or the glans. Moreover, the foreskin contains high levels of HIV target cells (such as Langerhan’s cells). Indeed in a recent in vitro study of 14 foreskins, investigators from Chicago found that foreskin mucosal tissue had a 7-fold greater susceptibility to HIV-1 than cells in cervical tissue under the same conditions. Lastly, the presence of a foreskin appears to increase risk of ulcerative STDs such as chancroid and herpes, which are strong co-factors for HIV infection.

The International Journal of STDs & AIDs provides a different take:

In the late 1980s, several small studies conducted in Africa suggested an association between having a foreskin and a greater risk of contracting human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Some of these studies based their conclusion by looking at maps, some looked at high-risk populations, and others looked at patrons of sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinics. Recently, however, several large random population surveys performed in Africa have found that circumcised men are more likely to be HIV infected. Despite inconsistent findings in the medical literature, there is a misconception that the foreskin places a man at greater risk for acquiring an HIV infection.

The amount of research on the subject seems to be limited and the few resources that are out there do point to the foreskin being a potential virus entry point.

At the end of 2006 roughly 1,106,400 people in the United States had HIV.  That is roughly less than one third of one percent of the total population.  No natter how much the government wants to call HIV an epidemic, it’s not. To put things in perspective there are roughly 2.5 Million women in the United State with or recovering from breast cancer.  Does that mean breasts of young women should be removed at birth?

Didn’t think so.

While we are comparing a communicable virus to a genetic mutation, the underlying principle is the same – remove a problem for the good of the public before it becomes a problem.  The bottom line is the government should not mandate what someone (anyone) does with their body.

You haven’t heard much about the swine flu as of late, have you?  I’m guessing that has something to do with the fact that the media got board with the topic as is now searching for the next “15 seconds of fame” story.  As a public service announcement, no, the swine flu has not disappeared.  The rate of infection is increasingly, actually:

Swine flu is spreading so far and fast in the U.S. that state health officials may soon stop counting individual cases, a federal health official said Monday.

The novel H1N1 virus accounted for 40 percent of flu viruses logged in the U.S. in the past week and helped propel an uptick in overall flu-like illnesses, said Dr. Anne Schuchat, a deputy director with the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The CDC has confirmed more than 2,000 cases in 43 states and Washington D.C., with 94 hospitalizations and three deaths. Another 700 cases are suspected. Although the flu is spreading quickly, it remains relatively mild in the U.S., say health officials. 

The unfortunate part of this whole experience was the massive amount of attention the news dedicated to this story when it first broke.  Yes, the public needed to be informed of what was going on but they didn’t need to be beaten over the head with it for two weeks on end.  I fear that doing so created, what I call, the “Hurricane False Alarm”.  

This is when a hurricane is foretasted to be the “end of the world” storm, people get in a panic, pack up, and head for higher ground.  However, when the storm ends up to be a dud, people end up wondering why they took the action in the first place.  Now, do this 4 or 5 times and the storm alert ends up loosing the impact it once had. Finally, a warning comes along for the end all, be all Hurricane but the public ignores the warning and decides to stick it out… and massive losses are witnessed. (New Orleans, anyone?)

If the Swine Flu ends up out of control, be it this season or next, the public may simply ignore the warning, thus making themselves vulnerable.

The one thing the general public has going for it with this version of the swine flu is the low mortality rate.  It appears that the rate of infection is increasing, but the mortality rate per infection is staying low – very low.  If you are wondering, here are the latest Swine Flu results.

Yesterday evening the wife and I watched, hands down, one of the most disturbing television programs we have both witnessed in a long time.  We happened to run across “Worlds Heaviest Man” on Discovery Channel, which covers the story of Manuel Uribe Garza – the worlds heaviest man.  At his peek, Manuel was 1,316 pound and hand not left his bed, or his mother’s apartment, for almost six years.  The documentary goes on to cover the options available to Manuel in order to assist him lose weight, progress he made, and what his life was like during the process.  Once we finished watching the almost freak show-esque program I had to ask the question: When did obesity, or being fat, become acceptable let alone an epidemic?

Before you go off half-cocked on me and my seeming inability to be sensitive to other people’s problems, hear me out.  I understand there is a segment of population that has no control over their weight; no matter how hard they try.  Genetics may simply not be in their favor or, perhaps, they are facing medical or mental illness that increases obesity risk. I am not talking about this portion of the population; I am talking about the Manuel Uribes of the world…  The people who don’t stop eating… The people who pork up to 350 pounds and think nothing of it until they have a stroke. I’m talking about, roughly, 25% of the United States populous.

There is a difference between overweight and obesity.  To be considered overweight, as defined by the CDC, and individual would have a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 25% to 29.9%. If you have a BMI of 30% of above you, my friend, are obese.

Here is where things get really scary.  In 1985, of the data available, obesity topped out at roughly 14% of any given states population.  Ten years later, 1995, roughly 15% to 19% of the population in half of the U.S. was considered obese.  By 2007 the population of three states had a 30% obesity rate while 28 states had an obesity rate between 25 and 29%. (source – CDC)

As a nation we need to wake up.  Obesity causes so many of the health issues the population faces today – High Blood Pressure, Diabetes, Heart Disease, Stroke – and all we would have to do is lose some extra weight and eat a little less in order to prevent the continuation of an unhealthy nation.

Take it one step further.

People are concerned about a health care crisis within the United States.  The reality is that healthcare is available but the cost is increasing greatly.  What better way of avoiding high healthcare costs than being healthy, keeping somewhat in shape, and losing weight? You can easily reduce your risk, and healthcare costs, by taking better care of yourself.

Even if I put this entire discussion aside for a second, I still do not understand how people can do this to themselves.  What makes an individual wake up and think that it is ok to look like this, this, this or this? How does one wake up and think “God, I look good today – there are no consequences for my actions” and simply go on living life as if there is nothing wrong.

Again, I understand there is a segment of population that has no control over their weight; no matter what they do and I am not suggesting government intervention or telling people how to live.  I am simply pointing out the major challenges we are facing because of our choices.

If you want to be overweight, and you want to kill yourself slowly, that’s fine by me but don’t expect others to pay for your decisions.  Simply because you didn’t take care of yourself shouldn’t mean you get special, preferred treatment (cough – handicapped parking sticker) or are first in line for that liver transplant.  You made a choice, live with the consequences.

FYI – Don’t know your BMI?  You can use this calculator to determine. For the record, my BMI is 22.6.