John McCain ran a poor campaign, plain and simple.  Many pundits feel McCain’s efforts were so poor the Bob Dole campaign looked good in comparison.  There was hope for Republicans when Sarah Palin joined the ticket but the sudden rock star status turned negative quickly as the press began to hammer her abilities and credentials.  After the Republican convention McCain got a bump in number, overtaking Obama for roughly a week, and then the reality of the financial crisis set in.  Today, Obama leads McCain by 7 to 9 points.

The party is over, and the McCain camp knows it.  Word came out today that the McCain campaign will be discontinuing ads / campaigning in the state of Michigan – a battleground state.  If McCain had a chance, would he be pulling back the troops?

Unless there is a drastic change of events, come election day, I suspect Obama will be winning by a wide margin.

There was some concern that the bill was not going to pass the House today and, sure enough, it did not. The Bush Administration, Secretary Paulson, Chairman Bernanke and senior Democratic leadership all supported the bill but the majority of Republicans did not. As a result, the bill appears to be dead in the water.

The DOW was down roughly 700 points after the bill was defeated but this bill is not about the Stock Market, it’s about the credit markets. This bill was designed, fundamentally, to help open up the credit markets. If one looks as at the current Government Bond rates the 3 month yield is at less than one percent – that is to say there is NO MONEY AVAILABLE.

This crisis is about credit, plain and simple. Without credit business cannot spend and growth will stall – if not decrease. Personal credit will dry up and households will not be able to make large purchases such as cars, washers and home improvements. Students may not be able to get loans for college…. and it can go on and on.

What I am not seeing here is leadership on the Republican House side. Where are the leaders making their case as to why they are not passing the bill and what the course of action is? Where is the Republican House leadership and why can they not deliver the votes they need?

For the very, very first time I am truly worried about the financial situation in the United States.

UPDATE: Voting Record

Care to see the AYES/NOES on the bill, you can check it out here.

UPDATE 2

You have to be kidding me – Republican Leadership is blaming Speaker Pelosi for being bipartisan as to why the bill failed. Supposedly she was too negative.

Yes, she hammered the Bush Administration – and I do not agree with what she had stated – but how petty is that if that is truly the case.

Here is the speech (in RealMedia format)

Here is another version – flash player based

So the general feeling is Republicans did not vote due to the fact that she was hammering the current administration. Again, I don’t agree with what she has stated but this is a time to put politics aside and get the deal done.

UPDATE 3

John McCain is shooting back at Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Both sides, no matter what is said, need to wake up.

UPDATE 4

To play politics for a second – the Democrats have the majority in the House of Representatives and could pass the Bill on their own if they truly wanted to.  If that is the case, how come this failed because of the Republicans?

As the United States quickly moves toward the Presidential Elections many people are waiting for an “October Surprise” – an event that will drastically change the election in favor of one candidate.  The major event influencing the race today is the financial bailout currently working its way through Congress. Without a doubt the economic turmoil has favored Barack Obama, showing his lead in the polls growing as the uncertainty continues to grow, but will there be another event to swing the momentum in favor of McCain?

Maybe an Israeli attack on Iran?

Earlier in the year Israel apparently asked the United States for permission to attack Iranian nuclear facilities but was denied by the Bush administration.  As Iran progresses with the nuclear program Israel feels, more and more, their very existence is threatened.  As a result, the Israeli government will do what they feel is best for their safety – attack Iran.

Will they do so before the election?  Is so, will this be the “October Surprise” that swings the favor to McCain or will the US public move even closer to Obama?

If you missed the missed the “big” story on news yesterday, and there is a good chance you did, hackers from the group Anonymous claimed to have cracked Sarah Palin’s email account. The group, the same which has been going after the Church of Scientology this past year, provided screen shots and a list of email addresses within a posting on the 4chan website Wednesday. My two questions regarding this situation are 1) is the situation truly investigated and 2) where is the outrage?

The Anchoress says:

I don’t know anyone who has not occasionally used their private email for business and vice versa. But that’s not the point. What they’ve done to Palin is criminal and can bring jailtime.

She is spot. First off, this was a criminal act. Let’s ignore the fact that she is candidate for vice president for a moment and remember that she is an American citizen and, as such, is entitled to all rights extended to citizens of the U.S. When one takes the very basic definition of this act, the perpetrator is facing is wire fraud:

Whoever, having devised or intending to devise any scheme or artifice to defraud, or for obtaining money or property by means of false or fraudulent pretenses, representations, or promises, transmits or causes to be transmitted by means of wire, radio, or television communication in interstate or foreign commerce, any writings, signs, signals, pictures, or sounds for the purpose of executing such scheme or artifice, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both. If the violation affects a financial institution, such person shall be fined not more than $1,000,000 or imprisoned not more than 30 years, or both.

A few news articles point to the Secret Service investigation the event, but shouldn’t there be more involved the agency? Shouldn’t the FBI be involved? Granted, there may be significant movement behind the scenes that is not being publicized, but one would think the campaign – or someone – would want to take steps to show the public this is being address.

As for the outrage… why are the commentators now up in arms about this invasion of privacy and criminal act? Someone makes a question or comment about Barack Obama’s former minister and press goes wild but when a crime takes place, barely a word is on the wires. Better yet, how come the Barack Obama campaign has not spoke out against the cracking?

I NO way am I implying the Obama campaign has any connection to this event, but he needs to protect himself. A few weeks ago I wrote the following:

2008 is no longer the election about Barack Obama or having Sarah Palin as the Vice President. Change is no longer going to be the focus and the issues are quickly moving to the background. This election is officially about being negative. The general public will be turned off by the low blows and dirty politics, which will only hurt the campaign that is the most negative. The candidate who suffers a loss come November is the candidate who, along with their supporters, was the one who ran the most negative campaign.

While neither campaign can control the actions of others, they do need to speak out against items that can been seen as negative. I believe if the Obama camp does not come out an condemn the actions of this group there is a portion of the general public that can see this event as tied to him. They will remember, while not his doing, he did nothing only adding to the perception of a negative campaign.

Update: Jeffrey A. Setaro points out the FBI is looking into the event.

What others are saying:

Just a week ago the Democrats and Republicans alike were under the impression Bacak Obama was going to have a problem with his fundraising efforts (I commented on that here) but the Obama camp released the August fundraising numbers – $66 million.

Now that the conventions are finished and there are 51 days left until the election, let’s see how both camps do raising money.

Very impressive on Obama’s part. As I said before, polls are one thing but money is something you cannot argue.

I have a big problem when someone tells me how to live my life. The majority of my time on this world I’ve spent creating an environment that allows me the flexibility to make decisions on my future with minimal input from the outside world. While I know I do not live on the proverbial desert island, I will always have outside influences, I want to decide what is best for me – not have someone else do it for me. That is why this story on the election, and Obama, gets me:

All 22 countries covered in the poll would prefer to see Senator Obama elected US president ahead of Republican John McCain. In 17 of the 22 nations, people expect relations between the US and the rest of the world to improve if Senator Obama wins… “Large numbers of people around the world clearly like what Barack Obama represents,” GlobeScan chairman Doug Miller said.

Two things strike me right away:

1. What exactly does Obama Represent?
2. How does the rest of the world know what he represents if the general American voting public is having a hard time understanding what he brings to the table?

From what I’ve read in the press, and from Obama’s website, his positions are rather liberal, borderline socialist, to me. I don’t mean that in a “darn those liberals” sense but helping free services for everyone and raising taxes sense.

If you look at other the political landscape of countries most are extensively more liberal than the United States. A large number of countries believe in large social aide programs, universal / near universal health care, significant gun control and simply giving to their people simply for the sake that they are citizens. My guess that is exactly why other countries like Obama – they see in him what they have in their government. So, when I see an article like this I can almost hear the world saying “Look, he’s like us – you should take him so you are like us.”

For better or worse the United States has made its way on its own terms. Sometimes the world loves what we’ve done, others not so much. The thing is I wouldn’t have it any other way. Simply because one is used to a liberal government doesn’t mean it would work for the U.S.

9/10/08 Update:

Guardian.co.uk – The world’s verdict will be harsh if the US rejects the man it yearns for

FTA:

If Americans choose McCain, they will be turning their back on the rest of the world, choosing to show us four more years of the Bush-Cheney finger. And I predict a deeply unpleasant shift…If Americans reject Obama, they will be sending the clearest possible message to the rest of us – and, make no mistake, we shall hear it.

This statement is akin to saying electing Obama is like having a second Kennedy administration. Two different people standing up for what they believe in.  All Democrats are not the same, all Republicans are not the same.   Yes, McCain is a Republican but not a Bush disciple.  There is a clear history showing how Bush / McCain do not get along.

It sure seems as if the world is trying to tell us what to do… Don’t elect McCain or else (and I picture someone waving a finger at us as if we are a kid who just got caught with their hand in a cookie jar).  I have questions about McCain, but even more about Obama.  My desire to see McCain in office grows more and more every day – seeing articles like this in the press only helps it grow.

Without a doubt, polls can be utter crap – we pointed that out yesterday. Sure they show McCain in the lead but that really doesn’t mean anything at this point. What is hard to dispute is cash.

According to this CBS article, McCain pulled in $5 Million dollars in 5 hours. That is one heck of an accomplishment for a guy who was having problems rising any funding almost three months ago. What is even more interesting is the money was raised in Barack Obama’s backyard – Chicago. I am not suggesting McCain has a chance in Illinois but such successful fundraising effort in the largely Democratic Chicago is very impressive.

If cash is a barometer take a look at Obama. Reports are coming out that he is having a hard time reaching his fund raising goals. The trend appears to have started in June. Is this a sign that his support is starting to wane for the Senator or simply the up and down of a political campaign?

In business it is often suggested that if one wants to understand why and event is happening, if one wants to get a general sense of where things are headed, the prudent thing to do is follow the money. I believe the same is true in politics.

Others say…

Rightvoices wonders if Obama is running out of fund raising options
Hotair does a breakdown of some numbers
Swamppolitics – McCain-backers say fundraising has ‘taken on a life of its own’ with Palin

Let me be very blunt about polling and surveys before I continue on.  Penn and Teller did an outstanding job showing how polling can often be just pure Bullsh*t.  A pollster can structure a question in order to obtain the answer they, or the person who hired them, are looking for.  When a firm such as Zogby or Gallup conducts presidential polling; however, the question usually is usually not leading to a specific answer and unbiased.  That said, let’s look at the current polling information.

USAToday: McCain 50% / Obama 46%
Gallup: McCain 49% / Obama 44%
Zogby: McCain 49.7% / Obama 45.9%
Realclearpolitics Avergage: McCain 48.3% / Obama 45.4%

A number of things are, most likely, reflective in this data.  The Obama DNC bounce has faded back to previous level, the RNC convention gave McCain his post election bounce, and Sarah Palin has taken over the national spotlight.   There are a number undercurrents that could also be included, but that would be pure speculation.

Both campaigns need to face the reality that they are running into the home stretch of the election.  With some 50 odd days left the polls will continue to swing unless one of the campaigns makes a huge error.  If an egregious, publicly embarrassing event is committed by either candidate you can bet the polls will swing away from them and stay away, thus causing them a loss.

Much like the Sarah Palin speech, Republicans need to keep their focus.  Yes, it’s nice to be “up” in the polls but with 57 days left it is meaningless. Do NOT become overconfident.

Other Reactions:

Hot Air – Gallup: McCain 48, Obama 45 — outside the margin of error

Hennessy’s View – McCain Lead Outside Margin of Error

AlphaPatriot – Dems are the New “Status Quo”

Guntotingliberal – John McCain Flip-Flops Again, This Time By Enjoying The Sarah Palin “Barracuda Bump”

internet scofflaw – McCain Leads

Rightvoices.com – MCCAIN TAKES 10-POINT LEAD OVER OBAMA IN LIKELY VOTERS…Good News: There Is A Convention Bounce Gallup Has McCain Up 48% to 45% Over Obama

Blue Crab Boulevard – Tea Leaves and Caution

Scared Monkeys – Panic time for Obama

The Washington Times has an article that says Obama “slipped” when talking about faith.

If you look at the whole clip, as Allahpundit @ Hotair suggest, you’ll see Barack Obama did nothing of the sort.

Is Barack Obama a Muslim? No.  Should it matter?  No.  Does it matter?  For some, yes. My advice for everyone, not that my advice means anything, but just let it go.  If the Republicans want to win the election, keep to the truth.  That should be enough to win over the public and, if it is not, the party doesn’t belong in office.

Other reactions:

• California Yankee things Obama needs to address the Muslim issue head on

ABCNews.com is raising the question: Is Oprah biased with regards to the Republican vice president candidate, Sarah Palin?   Almost immediately Oprah came out with the following statement:

“At the beginning of the presidential campaign, when I decided that I was going to take my first public stance in support of a candidate, I made the decision not to use my show as a platform for any of the candidates, I agree that Sarah Palin would be a fantastic interview, and I would love to have her on after the campaign is over.”

The big problem people are having with this statement is that Oprah is appearing to conflict her very own position.  She made the decision to not use her show as a platform for any of the candidates but she had no problem having Barack on her show or campaigning for him.  Sure, the argument could be made that Oprah campaigning for Barack isn’t biased, she is doing what she believes nt but it’s hard to support that argument when your name is synonymous with your show and magazine.

I look at this whole situation and ask “so what”.

Oprah isn’t the “news media” she is an entertainer.  Yes, she is a very influential entertainer, with seemingly endless fans who give heavy weight to what she says but she doesn’t need to provide equal coverage to anyone.  It’s her show and she can do what she damn well wants.

This is one issue I wish would simply fade into the background because it’s not really worth the time or effort. Oprah could very well be biased but the American public has a general sense of right and wrong.  If public opinion does convict her, she will feel the short-term pain in loss of viewer ship or distribution of her magazine – that is when her tone will change.

Update: I Perceive wonders if Oprah is racist