Since the announcement that the federal government was going to perform stress tests on the nations 19 largest financial institutions, economists questioned just exactly would that mean?  What was going to determine if a bank was “strong” or not, and if not, what action was going to be taken.

Well, it turns out that the real findings of the stress test may not be know… and what the general pubic is viewing, in terms of results, is a negotiated – seemingly random number – developed by the banks and the government.

Take a look at this via the Wall Street Journal:

When the Fed last month informed banks of its preliminary stress-test findings, executives at corporations including Bank of AmericaCorp., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. were furious with what they viewed as the Fed’s exaggerated capital holes. A senior executive at one bank fumed that the Fed’s initial estimate was “mind-numbingly” large. Bank of America was “shocked” when it saw its initial figure, which was more than $50 billion, according to a person familiar with the negotiations.

At least half of the banks pushed back, according to people with direct knowledge of the process. Some argued the Fed was underestimating the banks’ ability to cover anticipated losses with revenue growth and aggressive cost-cutting. Others urged regulators to give them more credit for pending transactions that would thicken their capital cushions.

…

The Fed ultimately accepted some of the banks’ pleas, but rejected others. Shortly before the test results were unveiled Thursday, the capital shortfalls at some banks shrank, in some cases dramatically, according to people familiar with the matter. 

Bank of America’s final gap was $33.9 billion, down from an earlier estimate of more than $50 billion, according to a person familiar with the negotiations.

A Bank of America spokesman wouldn’t comment on how much the previous gap was reduced, though he said it resulted from an adjustment for first-quarter results and errors made by regulators in their analysis. “It wasn’t lobbying,” he said.

Wells Fargo’s capital hole shrank to $13.7 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. Before adjusting for first-quarter results and other factors, the figure was $17.3 billion, according to a federal document.

“In the end we agreed with the number. We didn’t necessarily like the number,” said Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Howard Atkins. He said the company was particularly unhappy with the Fed’s assumptions about Wells Fargo’s revenue outlook.

The financial institutional that faced massive losses over the last six months didn’t like was was said about them, and their ability to provide capital for operations, so what do they do?  Complain to the federal team who, for a lack of better terms, was auditing them. And their complaining got them what?  Numbers that are more favorable to their business operations.

Just so I understand.. the government was to do a test to determine if a bank was financially sound, once performed it turned out that a bank was not and additional funding was needed.  Offended, the bank put up a stink and the government changed their findings to be more favorable to the bank.That is like me saying “I don’t like the C+ I obtained while taking my masters level mid-term, I want a B” and the teacher simply giving it to me simply because I asked.

If that is NOT a sign that the stress tests performed on the U.S. financial institutions are meaningless, I don’t know what is.

At 5:00 PM this afternoon, the bank “stress test” results were published.  From the looks of it, a number of banks need significant amounts of capital (originally posted at Calculated Risk):

Once you look past the fact that roughly $75B more is needed, one has to ask “what does this really mean?”

I’m afraid to say that the results may mean nothing.  Yes, $34B for Bank of America is a boat load.  Same goes for the $15B Wells Fargo and $11.5B for GMAC need, but what if the additional funding does not help in the long run?  I ask this question simply because there is significant doubt around the credibility of the stress test results.

The assumption the test is based on is that these 19 financial institutions could potentially face another $600B in losses under “the worst conditions” but what if it’s more?  What if there is another $1.2T in losses? Will the banks be able to turn to the private markets in order to raise capital, as Wells Fargo is already saying they will do?  Would the investment community continue to throw money down the hole, or would Uncle Sam need to act as backstop once again?

I still believe the worst is yet to come.

If you take a quick trip down memory lane you will recall there was significant debate as to releasing the bank stress test data.  When will the government?  Should the government?  How will they do it?  

You get the point.

Anyway, the data is due to be reported this week and the information that is leaking out seems to be a bit disturbing – 10 of the 19 banks will need to raise capital.

The U.S. is expected to direct about 10 of the 19 banks undergoing government stress tests to boost their capital, according to several people familiar with the matter, a move that officials hope will quell fears about the solvency of the financial sector.

The exact number of banks affected remains under discussion. It could include Wells Fargo & Co., Bank of America, Citigroup Inc. and several regional banks. At one point, officials believed as many as 14 banks would need to raise more funds to create a stronger buffer against future losses, these people said, but that number has fallen in recent days.

Looking a bit deeper into the news that is in the press, the really disturbing information starts to find the light of day:

Bank of America Corp(BAC.N) has been deemed to need as much as $34 billion in additional capital, according to the results of a government stress test, a source familiar with the results said on late Tuesday.

Bank of America spokesman Scott Silvestri declined comment

Remember that Bank of America was considered to be surviving institution.  While the acquisition of Merrill was significantly more difficult than expected, the government had already provided support due to the situation.  

If the information out now is to believed, and Bank of America does need an additional 34B, what does that mean for the financial institutions deemed at risk, such as Citibank?  Better yet, what does it mean for the “solid” companies such as J.P. Morgan or Wells Fargo. 

The data release date is on 5/7… it will be interesting to see how the market reacts.

My intent was to spend a significant amount of time on this post, do a bunch of research and publish it tomorrow after President Obama releases his plan to assist people with troubled mortgages. Yea, I can’t wait.. basically my mind is occupied, and very annoyed with, what is going on in the government at this point. This includes both parties. With all the money is being thrown around, with all the waste going on, I want to know where our F&#!ing bailout is!

The Trouble Assets Relief Program (TARP) enacted by the Federal Government last year has turned out to be a huge waste of money – $700 Billion dollars to exact. The whole idea of the program was that good old Uncle Sam would provide the money, either by direct investment in a corporation or insuring of troubled assets, in order to stabilize financial institutions. The execution of the TARP, however, was an unmitigated failure at most, very problematic at least.

As of 02/09, the TARP money has been allotted in the following manner:

• $250 billion pledged for purchases of senior preferred shares and warrants in banks and thrifts (direct investment)
• $20 billion pledged for Bank of America in addition to $25 billion pledged under the direct investment program listed above
• $20 billion investment in Citigroup
• $40 billion investment in troubled insurer American International Group
• $20.9 billion to prop up the U.S. auto industry (GM, GMAC, Chrysler, Chrysler Financial)
• $20 billion pledged to cover potential losses for a Federal Reserve program aimed at improving consumer access to credit.

Guess what? TARP has done very little in terms of changing… well… anything. Had the program followed the original plan – the formation of a bank to take troubled assets – the financial institutions in the U.S. would look significantly different at this very moment. The problem is that those overseeing the original TARP program realized they did not have the funding to support such a bank after the got approval to put their plan in motion.

The credit markets are still basically frozen as banks continue to crank down on available credit. As a matter of fact, lending by the top banks in the U.S. actually fell 1% over the last 4 months. Losses at Bank of America and Citigroup were so large that they needed to go back to the federal government for more money. GM needs an additional $16.6 Billion, a good $17 Billion more than they originally stated they needed to fund operations, if they have any hope of staying alive.

So much for that plan.

Seeing the government has had so much success with the TARP, why would the general public expect the execution of a stimulus plan to make a significant impact on the economy? Who cares if it will or will not, right? Let’s pass a $787 Billion dollar stimulus plan anyway…. a plan that has… a lot of money for a whole lot of nothing.

I don’t have the time to break out all the spending, but you can read the bill here and here.

Based off of what I’ve seen there is very little “new spending” in the bill. For the sake of argument let’s say the “new spending” included in the bill is divided up between the states that need the funding. These states then distribute the money on infrastructure projects. How many IT professionals, finance majors, office workers and the like, who lost their jobs, are going to be building bridges and rebuilding road? How many corporate procurement managers will be able to install those solar panels? Really, how many people will this impact?

My guess is very few. But, let’s take it a bit further.

There will be an $800 tax credit for couples (married couples that file jointly, making under $150K a year) or a $400 tax credit for individuals (making under 75K a year). Oh, by the way, that credit includes people who DO NOT PAY TAXES. The IRS will mail checks to individuals who do not pay income tax due to low/no income? Kinda hard to give someone a “tax cut” if they don’t pay taxes, isn’t it?

So where does this leave me?

I’m decidedly middle class which means I fall outside of the eligibility limit set by the government… so I will not be getting a tax credit. Obviously I am not a giant bank, so I am not getting anything there….But let me get this straight. The financial institutions have money thrown at them, they continue to fail, and the government continues to support them. Here, I am paying my taxes – which end up supporting those financial institutions – and I cannot get any type of consideration?

Ok….

The government is providing a “tax credit” to people who DO NOT even pay taxes AND I GET nothing!?!

How is this fair? Let me get past the anger, no rage… I don’t like that idea. It’s socialism, plain and simple, but for the greater good (and I only say in such an extreme case) I can get on board with the idea. As much as it goes against my principles, I can still get on board as I would much rather see the survival of the United States than total anarchy in the name of a personal view.

So far my tax dollars are supporting major corporations and the nations poor but the government and I get nothing. Where is my help on what I need – my property value.

My condo value has fallen so much that I am now roughly anywhere from 60K to 90K “in the red” on my mortgage. While President Obama is expected to announce a mortgage relief program tomorrow, to help those who face foreclosure due to the inability to pay on their mortgage, it appears that there will be very little to assist families that are significantly “in the red” due to property value declines.

Just to recap…

1. Money goes to companies that continues to fail
2. Money goes to people that do not pay taxes
3. Assistance is provided to those who are facing foreclosure but not those in the red due to property value decline

[NOTE: 2/18 - The news coming out today is saying the Govn't will help people underwater by using cash to refi their mortgages. Depending on the info point #3 may change... and my frustration may be defused]

[NOTE #2: 2/18 - Read the impact of the bill, no... didn't defuse my frustration.]

How is this fair to me? How is this fair to the countless other middle class families and individuals facing the same situation, the countless households in this nation that have continued to pay their bills and taxes, even in the hardest of times?

It’s not.

Where is our F&#!ing bailout?

I understand the economy is facing more and more difficulty and that there is no plan that can address everything, but the segment of society that is actually footing the bill – and that is hurting as well – is the group eventually facing pain. The fact no relief or consideration for the individuals actually paying for everything will come back to haunt the government when this segment of society faces large layoffs (more so they they are now), which will trigger an even large wave of bankruptcies and foreclosures.

The shortsighted call to “help the poor” and “the corporations” will create a pressure on the middle class who will be unable to sustain funding the rest of the nation. If we are a lucky nation, and I fear that we are not, the United States will be able to get past this economic event on shoulders of the middle class. If not, the nation will face a depression longer and deeper than anyone had expected. Once the back of the middle class is broken, and there is no where else for the government to find the tax revenue, will the economy face capitulation and a true bottom to the recession will be called.

Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better…

All I can say is “WOW!”

The inauguration was highly impressive on a number of levels.  On a very basic level, watching the ceremony unfold, with barely a glitch, in such perfect manner was very impressive.  Take into account the history that was unfolding, add in the sea of humanity, and you have the perfect recipe for a modern day drama. 

I was quite impressed with the class President Obama showed during todays events.  While our nation faces a number of uphill battles, he did not place blame with any one specific person or political party.  He did move away from the political attacks in hopes of bringing the country together and, I believe, in a number of ways he did.  While I found his overall message to be less positive – and more realistic – than I had expected, he provided a message that resonated with the masses in general.

I do have a major problem; however, with something that took place today.  The crowd was booing when VP Cheney and President Bush were introduced (and, yes, they were still the VP and President at the time).  If you have a problem with the former VP and President I fully support you and your views, but you simply do not boo.  This isn’t a free speech issue, it’s a respect issue – respect for the Office of the President – not necessarily the person.  You respect the position. When you disrespect the Office, you are disrespecting the nation, and it only shows the ignorance that still is within our society today.  

Again, best of luck President Obama.  You have a huge task in front of you.  

Stock Market

At the beginning of the year, all of Twenty days ago, I was concerned about how quickly the stock market was rising .  The DOW almost reached 9100, and it was acting as if no recession was gripping our economy. Bad news would come out, the DOW would go up.  Good news would come out, the DOW would go up even faster.  The market was enthusiastic for no real reason, and now it has a huge hangover.  Today the DOW dropped 332 points, closing below 8000 for the first time in 2009.  

Yes, the news looks scary once again.  The survival of US banks are in question. Will Bank of America survive?  How long will it be before The Royal Bank of Scotland will be fully nationalized? What company will go bankrupt next?  Look past the obvious bad news and you can see good news.  REALLY good news, actually.

Take a look…

IBM posted a profit of $3.28 for the quarter – .$25 higher than expected.  Not only that, IBM expects to make $9.20 per share for the 2009 fiscal year, up $.45 from what was previously forecast.  Johnson and Johnson posted quarterly profits 14% higher, though they expect 2009 figures to be flat.  CSX – the rail transportation company – posted a profit of $.90 per share, a whole penny less than expected. 

The earning are there and better than expected from some of the economic bellwethers.  I’m not saying the economy isn’t in the crapper, nor am I saying everything will be fine tomorrow, but I do believe that the market has swung to low too fast.  

Essentially, I think the stock market is way oversold and is trading on emotion, not on the reality of the current situation.

Pilates, I have a new found respect for you

Today was the first day of my workout routine and Pilates was on the docket.  I doubted the effectiveness of a Pilates workout… until today.  For a 17 minute workout I felt the “burn”, as it were, and I was sweating up a storm.  

Seriously, I was very surprised and I cannot wait for the next workout… oh, and I’m down to 162.5 pounds, down 6 pounds in about two weeks.  There is no target weight I have in mind, I simply am taking better care of myself and it seems to be working.

Erasure Pop Remixed!

I had the chance to listen to a promo copy of Erasure’s “Pop Remixed!” and I can officially say that I am disappointed.  Really, not trying to sound negative or unsupportive, but the remixes are really…   thin… weak… uninspiring.  

Here is a quick breakdown.

Always – The Manhattan Clique remix doesn’t embody any of the original – outside of the vocals, nor does it do the song justice.  I’ve never understood the fascination Erasure has with Manhattan Clique as their work never seems impressive.

Drama!  - Really, you would think that Andy Bell would honor his own song in little better than this.

A Little Respect – Hello bad late 90’s Euro Trance music

Fingers and Thumbs – The full remix is long and, at times, seemingly pointless. Worse yet, the remix uses a vocoder on Andy’s voice…  The edit version is OK, but nothing impressive.

There was such potential here but my fears, I believe, have been realized…. 

Until next time, stay (fill in the blank).

Nothing like waiting to the last second – Lehman Brothers, at 1:21 AM ET, says that it was unable to find a buyer for the firm and that it intends to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

With this news, which was expected, the sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America, and markets are falling around the world in response to the Lehman, as well as a crashing dollar, Monday will be a very interesting day on Wall Street.

Talk about a wild day on Wall St. – Lehman Bro. is on the verge of bankruptcy and Bank of America has agreed to buy Merrill Lynch at $29 / per share, which is a $12 premium over Friday’s close.

Why the buy-out of Merrill and not Lehman?  While Merrill is also facing a number of debt issues, much like Lehman, their assets are considered to be superior to Lehman.  Merrill Lynch has $1.6 trillion in asset management.  Also, this purchase will allow Bank of America the ability to take Merrill’s 49.8% stake in BlackRock which has more than $1 trillion in assets under management.

This means Monday will see the transformation of Wall Street – Lehman will, most likely, go under and Bank of America will purchase the 94 year old institution known as Merrill Lynch.

Not a bad purchase on B o A’s part for $44 Billion.