The Weather Research Center, a 22 year old non-profit organization, has released their predictions for the 2009 Hurricane season.  This is interesting news as the Oil production community tends to rely on the WRC’s information to help gauge/predict potential impact on production for the coming year.  Obviously, not an exact science, but still something to pay attention…

So, what does the WRC predict for 2009?

• Number of Named Storms: 7
• Number intensifying into Hurricanes: 4
• Number of Hurricane Days: 7
• Number of Tropical Storm Days: 47
• US Landfalls: 3
• Cat 3 or Higher Storms in the Atlantic: 50%

The WCR suggests the highest risk of landfall for a Tropical Storm or Hurricane is from Louisiana to Alabama with a 70% Chance.  Mighty close to the oil production centers in the Gulf of Mexico.

When Hurricane Ike pushed through the Gulf of Mexico in 2008, the price of oil continued the previously established downward pattern.  Now that oil is range bound from $35 to $45 dollars, and OPEC has cut output drastically, what would happen to the price of oil if a major storm hit production centers in the Gulf?