Van Santos

John McCain ran a poor campaign, plain and simple.  Many pundits feel McCain’s efforts were so poor the Bob Dole campaign looked good in comparison.  There was hope for Republicans when Sarah Palin joined the ticket but the sudden rock star status turned negative quickly as the press began to hammer her abilities and credentials.  After the Republican convention McCain got a bump in number, overtaking Obama for roughly a week, and then the reality of the financial crisis set in.  Today, Obama leads McCain by 7 to 9 points.

The party is over, and the McCain camp knows it.  Word came out today that the McCain campaign will be discontinuing ads / campaigning in the state of Michigan – a battleground state.  If McCain had a chance, would he be pulling back the troops?

Unless there is a drastic change of events, come election day, I suspect Obama will be winning by a wide margin.

As the United States quickly moves toward the Presidential Elections many people are waiting for an “October Surprise” – an event that will drastically change the election in favor of one candidate.  The major event influencing the race today is the financial bailout currently working its way through Congress. Without a doubt the economic turmoil has favored Barack Obama, showing his lead in the polls growing as the uncertainty continues to grow, but will there be another event to swing the momentum in favor of McCain?

Maybe an Israeli attack on Iran?

Earlier in the year Israel apparently asked the United States for permission to attack Iranian nuclear facilities but was denied by the Bush administration.  As Iran progresses with the nuclear program Israel feels, more and more, their very existence is threatened.  As a result, the Israeli government will do what they feel is best for their safety – attack Iran.

Will they do so before the election?  Is so, will this be the “October Surprise” that swings the favor to McCain or will the US public move even closer to Obama?

 MCCAIN SUSPENDS CAMPAIGN TO FOCUS ON ECONOMY; WANTS DEBATE DELAY

MCCAIN: America this week faces an historic crisis in our financial system. We must pass legislation to address this crisis. If we do not, credit will dry up, with devastating consequences for our economy. People will no longer be able to buy homes and their life savings will be at stake. Businesses will not have enough money to pay their employees. If we do not act, ever corner of our country will be impacted. We cannot allow this to happen.

Last Friday, I laid out my proposal and I have since discussed my priorities and concerns with the bill the Administration has put forward. Senator Obama has expressed his priorities and concerns.This morning, I met with a group of economic advisers to talk about the proposal on the table and the steps that we should take going forward.I have also spoken with members of Congress to hear their perspective.

It has become clear that no consensus has developed to support the Administration’ proposal. I do not believe that the plan on the table will pass as it currently stands, and we are running out of time.

Tomorrow morning, I will suspend my campaign and return to Washington after speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative. I have spoken to Senator Obama and informed him of my decision and have asked him to join me.

I am calling on the President to convene a meeting with the leadership from both houses of Congress, including Senator Obama and myself. It is time for both parties to come together to solve this problem.

We must meet as Americans, not as Democrats or Republicans, and we must meet until this crisis is resolved.I am directing my campaign to work with the Obama campaign and the commission on presidential debates to delay Friday night’s debate until we have taken action to address this crisis.

I am confident that before the markets open on Monday we can achieve consensus on legislation that will stabilize our financial markets, protect taxpayers and homeowners, and earn the confidence of the American people. All we must do to achieve this is temporarily set politics aside, and I am committed to doing so.

Following September 11th, our national leaders came together at a time of crisis. We must show that kind of patriotism now. Americans across our country lament the fact that partisan divisions in Washington have prevented us from addressing our national challenges. Now is our chance to come together to prove that Washington is once again capable of leading this country.
–

Put the politics aside, come together as Americans and solve the problem. That is leadership.

There are three major events taking place in the U.S. right now we, as a nation, should be focusing on: The election, the credit crisis and the clean up in Texas after hurricane Ike.  Why, then, does the press focus on….

Clay: I’m gay

Lindsay Lohan: Says she is dating Samantha Ronson

Give us a break! Some say David Blaine’s feat deserves asterisk

These were the major headline on a number of news sites - NOT what is facing America right now.  Seriously, we do we care?  If we are so focused on such crap, we as a nation deserve whatever fate we experience due to our lack of priority.

If you missed the missed the “big” story on news yesterday, and there is a good chance you did, hackers from the group Anonymous claimed to have cracked Sarah Palin’s email account. The group, the same which has been going after the Church of Scientology this past year, provided screen shots and a list of email addresses within a posting on the 4chan website Wednesday. My two questions regarding this situation are 1) is the situation truly investigated and 2) where is the outrage?

The Anchoress says:

I don’t know anyone who has not occasionally used their private email for business and vice versa. But that’s not the point. What they’ve done to Palin is criminal and can bring jailtime.

She is spot. First off, this was a criminal act. Let’s ignore the fact that she is candidate for vice president for a moment and remember that she is an American citizen and, as such, is entitled to all rights extended to citizens of the U.S. When one takes the very basic definition of this act, the perpetrator is facing is wire fraud:

Whoever, having devised or intending to devise any scheme or artifice to defraud, or for obtaining money or property by means of false or fraudulent pretenses, representations, or promises, transmits or causes to be transmitted by means of wire, radio, or television communication in interstate or foreign commerce, any writings, signs, signals, pictures, or sounds for the purpose of executing such scheme or artifice, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both. If the violation affects a financial institution, such person shall be fined not more than $1,000,000 or imprisoned not more than 30 years, or both.

A few news articles point to the Secret Service investigation the event, but shouldn’t there be more involved the agency? Shouldn’t the FBI be involved? Granted, there may be significant movement behind the scenes that is not being publicized, but one would think the campaign – or someone – would want to take steps to show the public this is being address.

As for the outrage… why are the commentators now up in arms about this invasion of privacy and criminal act? Someone makes a question or comment about Barack Obama’s former minister and press goes wild but when a crime takes place, barely a word is on the wires. Better yet, how come the Barack Obama campaign has not spoke out against the cracking?

I NO way am I implying the Obama campaign has any connection to this event, but he needs to protect himself. A few weeks ago I wrote the following:

2008 is no longer the election about Barack Obama or having Sarah Palin as the Vice President. Change is no longer going to be the focus and the issues are quickly moving to the background. This election is officially about being negative. The general public will be turned off by the low blows and dirty politics, which will only hurt the campaign that is the most negative. The candidate who suffers a loss come November is the candidate who, along with their supporters, was the one who ran the most negative campaign.

While neither campaign can control the actions of others, they do need to speak out against items that can been seen as negative. I believe if the Obama camp does not come out an condemn the actions of this group there is a portion of the general public that can see this event as tied to him. They will remember, while not his doing, he did nothing only adding to the perception of a negative campaign.

Update: Jeffrey A. Setaro points out the FBI is looking into the event.

What others are saying:

I have a big problem when someone tells me how to live my life. The majority of my time on this world I’ve spent creating an environment that allows me the flexibility to make decisions on my future with minimal input from the outside world. While I know I do not live on the proverbial desert island, I will always have outside influences, I want to decide what is best for me – not have someone else do it for me. That is why this story on the election, and Obama, gets me:

All 22 countries covered in the poll would prefer to see Senator Obama elected US president ahead of Republican John McCain. In 17 of the 22 nations, people expect relations between the US and the rest of the world to improve if Senator Obama wins… “Large numbers of people around the world clearly like what Barack Obama represents,” GlobeScan chairman Doug Miller said.

Two things strike me right away:

1. What exactly does Obama Represent?
2. How does the rest of the world know what he represents if the general American voting public is having a hard time understanding what he brings to the table?

From what I’ve read in the press, and from Obama’s website, his positions are rather liberal, borderline socialist, to me. I don’t mean that in a “darn those liberals” sense but helping free services for everyone and raising taxes sense.

If you look at other the political landscape of countries most are extensively more liberal than the United States. A large number of countries believe in large social aide programs, universal / near universal health care, significant gun control and simply giving to their people simply for the sake that they are citizens. My guess that is exactly why other countries like Obama – they see in him what they have in their government. So, when I see an article like this I can almost hear the world saying “Look, he’s like us – you should take him so you are like us.”

For better or worse the United States has made its way on its own terms. Sometimes the world loves what we’ve done, others not so much. The thing is I wouldn’t have it any other way. Simply because one is used to a liberal government doesn’t mean it would work for the U.S.

9/10/08 Update:

Guardian.co.uk - The world’s verdict will be harsh if the US rejects the man it yearns for

FTA:

If Americans choose McCain, they will be turning their back on the rest of the world, choosing to show us four more years of the Bush-Cheney finger. And I predict a deeply unpleasant shift…If Americans reject Obama, they will be sending the clearest possible message to the rest of us - and, make no mistake, we shall hear it.

This statement is akin to saying electing Obama is like having a second Kennedy administration. Two different people standing up for what they believe in.  All Democrats are not the same, all Republicans are not the same.   Yes, McCain is a Republican but not a Bush disciple.  There is a clear history showing how Bush / McCain do not get along.

It sure seems as if the world is trying to tell us what to do… Don’t elect McCain or else (and I picture someone waving a finger at us as if we are a kid who just got caught with their hand in a cookie jar).  I have questions about McCain, but even more about Obama.  My desire to see McCain in office grows more and more every day - seeing articles like this in the press only helps it grow.

Let me be very blunt about polling and surveys before I continue on.  Penn and Teller did an outstanding job showing how polling can often be just pure Bullsh*t.  A pollster can structure a question in order to obtain the answer they, or the person who hired them, are looking for.  When a firm such as Zogby or Gallup conducts presidential polling; however, the question usually is usually not leading to a specific answer and unbiased.  That said, let’s look at the current polling information.

USAToday: McCain 50% / Obama 46%
Gallup: McCain 49% / Obama 44%
Zogby: McCain 49.7% / Obama 45.9%
Realclearpolitics Avergage: McCain 48.3% / Obama 45.4%

A number of things are, most likely, reflective in this data.  The Obama DNC bounce has faded back to previous level, the RNC convention gave McCain his post election bounce, and Sarah Palin has taken over the national spotlight.   There are a number undercurrents that could also be included, but that would be pure speculation.

Both campaigns need to face the reality that they are running into the home stretch of the election.  With some 50 odd days left the polls will continue to swing unless one of the campaigns makes a huge error.  If an egregious, publicly embarrassing event is committed by either candidate you can bet the polls will swing away from them and stay away, thus causing them a loss.

Much like the Sarah Palin speech, Republicans need to keep their focus.  Yes, it’s nice to be “up” in the polls but with 57 days left it is meaningless. Do NOT become overconfident.

Other Reactions:

Hot Air - Gallup: McCain 48, Obama 45 — outside the margin of error

Hennessy’s View - McCain Lead Outside Margin of Error

AlphaPatriot - Dems are the New “Status Quo”

Guntotingliberal - John McCain Flip-Flops Again, This Time By Enjoying The Sarah Palin “Barracuda Bump”

internet scofflaw - McCain Leads

Rightvoices.com - MCCAIN TAKES 10-POINT LEAD OVER OBAMA IN LIKELY VOTERS…Good News: There Is A Convention Bounce Gallup Has McCain Up 48% to 45% Over Obama

Blue Crab Boulevard - Tea Leaves and Caution

Scared Monkeys - Panic time for Obama

The Washington Times has an article that says Obama “slipped” when talking about faith.

If you look at the whole clip, as Allahpundit @ Hotair suggest, you’ll see Barack Obama did nothing of the sort.

Is Barack Obama a Muslim? No.  Should it matter?  No.  Does it matter?  For some, yes. My advice for everyone, not that my advice means anything, but just let it go.  If the Republicans want to win the election, keep to the truth.  That should be enough to win over the public and, if it is not, the party doesn’t belong in office.

Other reactions:

• California Yankee things Obama needs to address the Muslim issue head on

Last night, for the first time in almost a year, I was excited about your campaign. Your running mate did an outstanding job introducing herself to the public, showing what the future of Republican politics could be. That single speech did more for your campaign than you did (aside from picking her) and there was no way you could outperformed her, she did set the bar very high, but what happened?

No, seriously, what happen?

At times you seemed very comfortable and not the John McCain I’ve seen in the past. Was it the protesters who interrupted your speech? I thought you did an outstanding job of handling a situation that could have been very uncomfortable. Was the crowd that applauded at random times – times you didn’t expect? I could see how that would throw one off, but still… what happened?

I don’t mean to take credit away from your performance; after all you did get your main message points across - you will fight for the people, the Republican party has gone to far the its values, Obama has no way to pay for his programs – but I am worried about the perception.

Sarah was dynamic, you were not. Sarah was engaging, you were not. Sarah made people feel as if she was one of them; you came close but didn’t totally sell it. What Sarah has, that appeal, is also what Obama has and is what you will need to face in the upcoming debates.

Maybe you will be quite comfortable in a one-on-one setting, with out the teleprompter. Maybe this is where you will shine. I am worried; however, that you are going to be perceived as, well, old and disconnected.

You have a lot of political capital thanks to your running mate, the race is much more complex than it was two weeks ago, and you have a fighting chance. Don’t waste your ace in the hole by becoming what people expect you to be – disconnected.

I have a fear - the Cult of Palin.

In the press, around the blog world, and in the streets people are talking about the performance of Sarah Palin. It seems that the Republican Party has a rock star of its own and now people are basking in the feeling.

Stop.

In less than a week Sarah Palin has been able to refocus and energize the Republican Party. The tone switched from despair to unbridled enthusiasm and, all of a sudden, it seems that anything is possible.

It is.

It is, only if you don’t lose site of the goal. My fear is the Party gets so wrapped up with Sarah that John McCain is lost in the background. Remember, this isn’t about electing her President.

What this really comes down to is translating the emotional, and political, capital gained from her speech Thursday night into votes. John McCain, Sarah Palin and the Party need to continue to show why they are the winning ticket and how they will provide change while doing so better than Obama / Biden would. Now McCain/Palin need to sell:

• Taxes, how the McCain Tax plan will impact the Average American vs. Obama
• Economy, specifically the small business owner
• Healthcare
• Personal Freedom (Second Amendment)
• Ethics

Take the enjoyment and focus it on the cause, winning the election.