Van Santos

If you’ve ever wanted to feel small, just take a look at this:

Hurricane Ike over Cuba

This is a picture that NASA took as Ike passed over Cuba. Now realize that the storm has doubled in size since this picture was taken. Amazing. Simply amazing.

The storm looks to be on track to his Houston at some point this evening. With nearly a million people moving out of Ike’s path, gas prices on the rise due refinery shut downs, and 15 foot storm surge expected, this will be a wild weekend for some in Texas.

Here is the current model…

Others talking about the storm:

Hurricane Ike Resources
Jonny Torres - Ike video coming ashore
Diary of a Mad Poker Player - Hurricane Ike
Symonsez - Hurricane Ike Not Intense But Has Serious Muscle

As I had mentioned previously, the storm track for Ike seems to change by the hour.  Models have the system moving back toward Houston about 24 hours after it looked as if Ike was going to the US/Mexican border and a Hurricane warning is extended almost to New Orleans.

The evacuation orders in Texas are also starting, and Houston is starting to feel the worry that a storm of this size can bring.  What really surprises me is, with nearly 96% of oil production off line in the Gulf, the price of oil continues to decline.  That says a lot, I believe…

More to come.

I’m not a meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV, but I am really surprised at how quickly hurricane Ike’s projected path changed in a matter of hours. In the last two days the storm went from hitting New Orleans to just about hitting the US / Mexican border. The surprise, for me, is the path changed significantly from this morning – in a matter of 4 hours.

When I first logged on all models were showing Houston was still the target of the storm but come lunch time it’s Corpus Christi. That’s a big difference in a short period of time which says to me one shouldn’t underestimate where this guy is going.

Think about it – the models are changing so quickly, so dramatically, anything could happen in a matter of hours. While targets have it trending west and south into less populated areas, the Gulf should still fear a turn to the north.

Never underestimate Mother Nature.

Here is the current storm path:

First the good news - models suggest New Orleans looks to miss the brunt of Hurricane Ike.

The bad new - compare the storm track above with the Gulf Coast Oil platforms and you’ll see the production area is on the east side of the storm, not a good area to be. I’m surprised oil prices managed to stay below $110 with the storm on the way. Maybe the oil bubble is over, maybe the market really doesn’t think this will hurt production…

The really bad news - Houston could be the new target of the storm.

Ike slammed into the Bahamas causing serious damage, hurt the relief efforts already underway in already suffering Haiti, and just went ashore in Cuba roughly an hour ago.  The storm is now a Category 3 Hurricane, down froma 4, and is expected to come in to the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday or Wednesday.

The current storm track can be found here and here.  Storm models show Ike drifting east or west of New Orleans, which can give the city a break but can mean trouble for Houston, Mississippi or Alabama.

Something to keep in mind: the price of oil.  NYMEX Crude and Nymex Henry Hub Futures (Natural Gas) are both up 2.26 and 3.0% respectively.  If the storm causes a shutdown of oil / gas production and OPEC cuts oil output expect the prices to rise.

Update: Oil Price Coverage

• WSJ - Energy sector Hums Again
• Reuters - Oil rises over $2 to top $108 on hurricane threat

  From the Reuters article…

Hurricane Ike is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico as a severe Category 4 storm, a U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency official said on Sunday. It may threaten Gulf energy rigs that account for a quarter of U.S. oil output and 15 percent of natural gas production.

• AP - Gulf oil and gas producers give Ike a serious look

With nearly 88 percent of crude-oil and 74 percent of natural-gas output shut due to Hurricane Gustav, it is easy to see how Ike could shut down all production once again.

It’s just coming through via CNN: The Florida Keys are under an mandatory evacuation order.

Ike has now grown to a Category 4 storm once again with winds around 135 MPH.  Current storm track can be found here.

New Orleans, get ready to move! It looks like the storm is headed right for you. Here is the latest projected path for Hurricane Ike.

The Hurricane keeps switching between a Category 2 and 3 storm but a lot can happen between now and this up coming Thursday, when the storm is expect to be in the Gulf of Mexico.  When the storm passes over Cuba it may take some energy out of the storm.  Windsheer or a cold front may push the storm further south, toward texas, or the water temperature may not support the growth of the system.

I want to point out what JetBlue, the low-cost airline, is doing something that hasn’t been seen in the industry in ages - they are waiving fees for individuals affected by the storm.  Not only is it the right thing to do, in my opinion, it’s a nice marketing move as well.

More to come, no doubt.

Not tryin to be an alarmist, but the new Hurricane Ike strom tracks suggest this storm will miss Florida and head into the gulf.   (second view) NOAA is reporting:

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH..IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR
EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH…185 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.

As I had previously feard, this storm will - most likley - drive up Oil and Natural gas prices when companies shut down platforms due to danger.  What that means for us: depending on the size of the storm,  and the government take over of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, gas prices could rise sharply in the next few weeks.

Why the storm and Freddie and Fannie?  Fear helps drive oil price.

If the storm slows after it passes the Turks Islands, if the life of the storm isn’t as strong, industry could be out of the woods.  What is yet to bee seen, however, is where it will make landfall…

More to come.

More and more it is looking like Hurricane Ike will head into the Gulf of Mexico.  From data thus far the storm is really looking like a monster.

Current Storm path models and projected center positions can be found here and here.

Just a few things to think about…

If this does maintain strength, and does hit the Gulf, will the folks in New Orleans and Texas be hitting the road again or will people stay and try to ride it out?

Will nearly all of the oil and natural gas production shut down in preparation, as with Gustav?   Some 25% of oil drilling is still off line because of the last event, if this storm rolls through how will this impact the price of oil?

Are local and federal governments ready to respond to two major storms back to back?

We may know by mid next week…. But in the mean time continue to check out Symonsez for Hurricane coverage - some truly great stuff here.

Now that Gustav is a mere after thought, actually a major low-pressure system in the central United States that is expected to dump two to six inches of rain in some places, East Coast residents turn their attention to Hurricanes Hanna and Ike.

Actually, Hanna has turned back to a tropical storm and continuing to hop around the Bahamas like a drug mule picking up packages before they head back to the Atlanta airport. The big story is how much punch Hurricane Ike is packing. The sustained wind speeds of Ike are currently at roughly 115 miles per hour and the present storm course of the hurricane is heading west-northwest.

Here is my big concern – Hurricane Gustav was a dud in New Orleans as compared to Katrina. Yes, it caused damage in the Gulf, yes there was major flooding, but the nation didn’t witness (thank god) the devastation that was seen back in 2005.

Will all the people who evacuated Louisiana think they could ride out the next major storm thinking, chances are, nothing will happen? Will the relative “false alarms” cause the masses to become complacent? If so, another Katrina is possible.

Just remember, the collective memory is very short…

Update: Symonsez has outstanding hurricane coverage.