Since the second half of last year the stock market has been in a free fall and just about every economic forecast paints a picture of doom. Oh, yea, and there is enough collective data to show the United States is in the worst recession since World War II.

Suddenly, President Obama seems to think the economy “is not as bad as we think”

Confronting misgivings, even in his own party, President Barack Obama mounted a stout defense of his blueprint to overhaul the economy Thursday, declaring the national crisis is “not as bad as we think” and his plans will speed recovery.

Challenged to provide encouragement as the nation’s “confidence builder in chief,” Obama said Americans shouldn’t be whipsawed by bursts of either bad or good news and he was “highly optimistic” about the long term.

Just to recap how things are “not as bad as we think”…

• Unemployment is now at 8.1%, up from 4.8% last year at this time
• Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, Wachovia, AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have all collapsed
• Real Estate prices have fallen roughly 25% to 30%
• Household net worth has fallen 18% in the last year (or $11.2 Trillion)
• The government has passed two bail-outs – one for $700B, one for $787B
• GM and Chrysler are on the brink, all currently getting government funds to keep them operating, all face the worst sales market in 40 years
• The credit market is close to frozen, people – let alone companies – cannot obtain credit
• Year over year Retail Sales are down 12%, the most in the last 20+ years
• Foreclosure rates for U.S. houses are at historic highs
• Consumer Confidence is at historic lows

But no, it’s not that bad…

The reality, assuming we are all operating in reality, all points to a true economic meltdown that the world has not experienced in over two generations. There is no question about it, things ARE as bad as we think. The question is will they continue to get worse.

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